Transcript Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector European Windstorms Severe Convection Mediterranean Cyclones Tropical Cyclones PANDOWAE DFG Forschergruppe (Research Unit) 896

Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems
in the Atlantic-European Sector
European
Windstorms
Severe
Convection
Mediterranean
Cyclones
Tropical
Cyclones
PANDOWAE
DFG Forschergruppe (Research Unit) 896
Motivation
PANDOWAE
Mitigation of impact of severe weather requires accurate numerical weather
forecasts
www.wmo.int/thorpex
Accuracy of weather forecasts limited not only by technical factors but also by
gaps in our knowledge of the processes involved and their representation in
forecast models
Motivation
PANDOWAE
PANDOWAE initiative developed directly out of THORPEX
Aim of PANDOWAE:
“ to advance our knowledge and understanding of the dynamical
processes responsible for the development of high impact weather
systems, to elucidate the factors that limit the predictability of such
systems, and to contribute the basic research that will lead to the
development of innovative interactive weather forecasting systems”
PANDOWAE aims to carry out basic research with strong societal and economic
relevance
PANDOWAE is motivated by operational needs but not constrained by them
PANDOWAE represents a major contribution to answering some of the
fundamental scientific questions posed in THORPEX
What is a DFG Research Unit?
PANDOWAE
DFG guidelines:
 medium-sized research group collaborating closely on specific medium-term
research project
 manageable number of projects that all deal with the same subject and that
can only be worked on as a group in the proposed manner
 topic is current and relevant, basic concept highly innovative and coherent,
justifying six year time-frame
 constitutive feature is cooperation between the individual proposed projects
Research Units contribute towards:
 providing young scientists with an opportunity to develop their research skills
 strengthening cooperation with non-university partners
 expanding international cooperation
 improving the infrastructure of university-based research
PANDOWAE Timeline
PANDOWAE
First Phase 2008-2011:
Funding for 3 (+1) Postdocs, 8 (+1) Ph.D. Students
Midterm review Autumn 2010
Second Phase 2011-2013
Weather Systems
PANDOWAE
1 day to 2 week weather forecasts
3 Fundamental Research Themes
PANDOWAE
Upper-level Rossby waves:
time
time
days prior to the event
What triggers them?
How do they develop as they propagate downstream?
What determines their predictability?
What is their role in severe weather events?
Analysed 500 hPa height
heavy precipitation event
anomaly
wave composites
(autumn season)
180W
Elbe flooding
180E
Martius, Schwierz and Davies (2007)
3 Fundamental Research Themes
PANDOWAE
Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves:
How do they influence the evolution of weather systems?
What is their role for predictability?
How frequent are diabatic Rossby waves?
dynamical tropopause (2 pvu)
DRW: diabatically
produced PV anomaly in
lower troposphere
„Lothar“: 26. Dezember 1999, 7 UTC
Wernli et al. 2002
3 Fundamental Research Themes
PANDOWAE
Adaptivity and Ensembles:
What is the value of adaptive observations using different
targeting methods?
How can uncertainty be represented in ensembles in a flowdependent way?
What insights come from TIGGE for PDP questions?
COSMO-LEPS Flow-dependent sampling
Verbunt et al. (2007)
3 Fundamental Research Themes
PANDOWAE
Upper-level Rossby waves:
What triggers them?
How do they develop as they propagate downstream?
What determines their predictability?
What is their role in severe weather events?
Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves:
How do they influence the evolution of weather systems?
What is their role for predictability?
How frequent are diabatic Rossby waves?
Adaptivity and Ensembles:
What is the value of adaptive observations using different
targeting methods?
How can uncertainty be represented in ensembles in a flowdependent way?
What insights come from TIGGE for PDP questions?
The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble:
a multi-model, multi-analysis, multi-national ensemble prediction system
PANDOWAE Projects
PANDOWAE
PANDOWAE-Project Office: Aurelia Müller
PANDOWAE-ET: Sarah Jones,
Doris Anwender, Christian Grams,
Julia Keller, Simon Lang
PANDOWAE- DIAC: Heini Wernli,
PANDOWAE-MED:
Maxi Böttcher, Jana Čampa
Christoph Kottmeier, Ulli Corsmeier,
Claus-Jürgen Lenz
PANDOWAE-SESUWAT: Volkmar Wirth,
Hartmut Borth (Hamburg), Ilona Türschmann
PANDOWAE-VARNAER:
Dieter Peters
PANDOWAE-ADOBS: Martin Weissmann, Florian Harnisch
Link to HALO-THORPEX / T-NAWDEX: Andreas Dörnbrack
PANDOWAE- ADENS: George Craig, Pieter Groenemeijer
Research Areas
PANDOWAE
 Focus on joint research questions within the research areas
 All partners contribute to more than one research area
 Significant overlap between the research areas
 Enhanced collaboration between partners
P4: Wirth / Borth
P5: Peters
P3: Wernli
P1: Jones
P2: Kottmeier
/Corsmeier
P6: Craig
P7: Weissmann
P1
(SJ)
PANDOWAE
P2
(CK/UC)
P3
(HW)
P4
(VW/HB)
P5
(DP)
P6
(GC)
P7
(MW)
Rossby wave trains: generation, propagation and wave-breaking
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Ensembles and adaptivity
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Approach
PANDOWAE
Research questions will be addressed through:
Climatologies linking dynamical processes to forecast error
Joint case studies based on operational analyses and forecasts / TIGGE
data and applying diagnostic techniques
Idealised and real-case modelling studies
Data denial and data impact studies
Application and further development of ensemble systems
Synergy between theoretical studies / analysis of NWP data / numerical
modelling / planning and analysis of observational campaigns
First results: TTISS Presentations
PANDOWAE
Martin Weissmann et al. (DLR, Germany): Overview of T-PARC Falcon operations and
first results from ECMWF data denial experiments
Florian Harnisch and Martin Weissmann (DLR): Observation impact of dropsonde
Data
Christian Grams and Sarah Jones (U. Karlsruhe): The interaction of Typhoon
Jangmi (2008) and the midlatitude jet
Simon Lang (U. Karlsruhe), Sarah Jones, Martin Leutbecher: The structure of singular vectors associated with extratropical transition of tropical cyclones
Doris Anwender (U. Karlsruhe), Sarah Jones, Carla Cardinali: Data denial experiments
for extratropical transition
Maxi Boettcher and Heini Wernli (U. Mainz): A case study of an explosively deepening,
diabatic Rossby-wave induced cyclone: the inuence of environmental conditions
Ilona Tuerschmann (U. Mainz): The role of a long-lived Rossby wave train in the Elbe
flooding on 10-12th of August 2002.
Heini Wernli and Jana Campa (U. Mainz): A climatological analysis of diabatic processes
associated with extratropical cyclones
Julia Keller (U. Karlsruhe) Sarah Jones and Doris Anwender: Investigation of
predictability during the extra-tropical transition of tropical cyclones using TIGGE
Collaboration within PANDOWAE
PANDOWAE
Joint case studies (August – October 2008)
Use of common tools (COSMO Model, ECMWF IFS, Diagnostics, ....)
Analysis of TIGGE data
Workshops
9-11 June 2008
Höfen
16-18 Feb 2009
Murnau
Young Scientists Meetings
15. – 17. Dec. 2008 in Karlsruhe
6. – 8. July 2009 in Mainz
External partnerships
PANDOWAE
Associated Projects: DLR, Leeds, ETH
DWD
ECMWF
THORPEX
Major part of PDP WG programme
Contribution to DAOS WG
Contribution to T-PARC
Contribution to Plan for Europe
Further partners at national and international level
www.pandowae.de
PANDOWAE