Transcript World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Report Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair CAS MG meeting, 15-17 November 2011 Madrid, Spain.

World Weather Research
Programme (WWRP) Report
Gilbert Brunet
WWRP/JSC Chair
CAS MG meeting, 15-17 November 2011
Madrid, Spain
Long-term objectives of the
WWRP
•
To improve public safety and economic productivity by accelerating research on
the prediction of high-impact weather;
•
To demonstrate improvements in the prediction of weather, with emphasis on
high-impact events through the exploitation of advances in scientific
understanding, observational network design, data assimilation and modelling
techniques and information systems;
•
To improve understanding of atmospheric processes of importance to weather
forecasting through the organization of focused research programmes (e.g., WWRP
Strategic Plan, RDPs);
•
To encourage the utilization of relevant advances in weather prediction systems to
the benefit of all WMO Programmes and all Members (e.g., FDPs)
•
To maintain a strong focus on training opportunities for young scientists, in
particular from developing countries, so that as many countries as possible will be
able to contribute to and benefit from the research advances.
2
Highlights of WWRP
•
The WWRP has promoted successfully important end-to-end integrated
research, development and demonstration projects to advance
understanding of high-impact weather processes, improve forecasting
technique, establishing new databases, facilitate the transfer of research
results into operational practice and better utilization of forecast products
by end users.
These are the
– THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE);
– Beijing 08, Summer Olympic Games, China;
– Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW V10)
project, Canada; ( legacy with FROST in Sochi 2014)
BAMS 2010
Highlights of WWRP
– International field campaign for tropical cyclones and targeting ATReC (Atlantic
THORPEX Regional Campaign), THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the USA Winter Storms Reconnaissance (WSR) flights;
– Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC);
– Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS);
– The Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System during the Shanghai World
EXPO, China in 2010;
– Establishment of three monsoon data centers (in Colorado State University,
USA; in Nagoya University, Japan; and in Beijing Climate Center, CMA, China);
Highlights of WWRP
• International Polar Year (IPY) THORPEX;
1-D, blowing snow model
snow
1-D, multi-layer snow
model
Sea ice
ocean
• Mesoscale Alpine Project Demonstration-Phase (MAP D-Phase),
Switzerland;
• European Coordinated Experiments 2007 including the Convective and
Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS). Showing the way to
Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (IMRE);
European Coordinated Experiments 2007
Convective and Orographicallyinduced Precipitation Study
(COPS), WWRP) Research and
Development Project (RDP)
Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007
Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS 2008
General Observations Period
(GOP) Period: full year of 2007
(Crewell et al. MetZet 2008, submitted)
Transport and Chemical
Conversion in Convective
Systems (COPS-TRACKS)
Period: 16.07. – 02.08.2007
Atmospheric Radiation
Measurement (ARM) Program
Mobile Facility (AMF)
Period: 01.04. – 31.12.2007
European THORPEX Regional
Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007)
Period: 01.07. – 01.08.2007
EUMETSAT special satellite
operation modes and data
Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007
(Aoshima et al. MetZet 2008,
accepted)
Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and
Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the
Alpine region (D-PHASE),
WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP)
Period: 01.06. – 30.11.2007
(Rotach et al. BAMS 2008, submitted)
Ongoing and possible future
initiatives and RDP/FDP’s
Ongoing:
• COPS: convective orographic precipitation study (nearly completed,
final workshop spring 2012)
• FROST-14: high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic forecasting and
nowcasting in support of Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics
• Participation in HYMEX TTM4: data assimilation and predictability
• WGNE Grey Zone project
Possible future RDP’s:
• TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Study: attempt to engage
international community in an urban meteorology RDP
• Tropical cyclone modelling
8
JWGFVR - WG-MWFR meeting, 10
September 2011
4th International Verification Methods Workshop
(Finnish Meteorological Institute; June 2009)
Tutorial
• 26 students
– 24 countries; many from SWFDP
countries
• 3 days
• Lectures and hands-on (took tools
home)
• Group projects - presented at
workshop
Workshop
• ~100 participants
• Topics: Ensembles, Users, Spatial
methods, Tools, Uncertainty, Weather
warning verification, Evaluation of
seasonal and climate predictions
•
5th International Verification
Methods Workshop (Melbourne,
Australia, 1-7 December, 2011)
Highlights of WWRP
•
The WWRP has established new organisational
structures and has promoted activities to support
WMO Strategic thrust by:
– establishing the WWRP Societal and Economic
Research and Applications (SERA) Working
Group to advance the science of the social and
economic application of weather-related
information and services in collaboration with
ICSU Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR)
Institute;
– participating in the EC-Research Task Team
report on the “Challenges and opportunities in
research to enable improved products and new
services in climate, weather, water and
environment.”.
WWRP - General
• Implementation of the
CAS-XV decision to
establish a new 10member WWRP Joint
Scientific Committee
(WWRP/JSC) to
oversee the scientific
progress and
development of the
WWRP.
JSC
JSC Committee Members
•
•
Chairman of the Joint Scientific Committee for OPAG-WWRP
Gilbert BRUNET, Environment Canada, Dorval, Québec, [email protected]
AFIESIMAMA Ernest
[email protected]
DOLE Randy
[email protected]
DUCROCQ Veronique
[email protected]
GOLDING Brian
[email protected]
MILLER Martin
[email protected]
LEE Dong-Kyou
[email protected]
SAULO Celeste
[email protected]
SMITH Neville
[email protected]
PARSONS David
[email protected]
WWRP - General
•
The completion of the first Strategic Plan for the
Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research
Programme (WWRP): 2009 – 2017 (WMO/TD-No. 1505).
•
The WWRP strategic plan integrates WMO Member activities
in THORPEX, tropical meteorology, mesoscale weather
forecasting, nowcasting, verification and societal and
economic applications with those of partners in global and
regional forecast research and Earth observation.
•
The plan maintains and reinforces the traditional strong links
with GAW, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
and other WMO activities.
•
Implementation activities outlined in the first Strategic Plan
will address cross cutting activities at the interface of
nowcating-mesoscale, mesoscale-global and weather-climate
prediction research, research-operations that are related to
the delivery of a weather and climate services; in particular,
ensemble weather prediction systems, tropical convection,
polar prediction; and sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction.
2011 WMO Congress: Future of WWRP
•
3.3.40 Legacy of THORPEX
– “mid-term review of the THORPEX Programme.”
– “THORPEX had become an integral component of the
WWRP focusing on global scales and that the WWRP
should fulfill the THORPEX high priority research
activities for the next biennium if and when
contributions to the THORPEX trust fund begin to “tail
off” towards the end of the ten-year period of the
programme.”
•
3.3.41 An Earth-system Prediction Initiative
– “ WWRP community needs to participate in the
establishment of the international Earth-system
Prediction Research Initiative in order to accelerate
advances in weather, climate and Earth-system
prediction.”
– “ Elements of the Initiative are introduced in a
compendium of papers that appeared in the October
2010 issue of the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society (BAMS)”
2011 WMO Congress: Future of WWRP
•
3.3.43 An Earth-system Prediction Initiative
– Congress recognized that the proposed initiative needs
to be aligned and built on the projects already initiated
by WWRP and THORPEX on sub-seasonal and seasonal
forecasts and polar research or endorsed like HYMEX.
– Two important components of this initiative have been
discussed:
• (i) Earth-system Interdisciplinary Summer School
Program: a first step toward informing the next
generation of the excitement and opportunities of
the research and multifaceted deliverables at the
forefront of society; and
• (ii) the first WWRP Earth-system Open Science
Conference.
2010-11 WWRP meetings
• 5th International Verification Methods Workshop (Melbourne,
Australia, 1-7 December)
• Meeting of WG SERA (Beijing, China 31 October-2 November 2011)
• WMO Joint WG Nowcasting Research and WG Mesoscale Weather
Forecasting Research Workshop on the use of NWP for Nowcasting
(Boulder, CO, USA 24-26 October 2011)
• WCRP Open Science Conference (Denver, USA, 24-28 October)
Session B1: Prediction from Subseasonal to Multi-decadal Scales
(conveners: D. Anderson, G. Brunet, B. Kirtman, I.-S. Kang)
• WMO/WWRP International Workshop on Rapid Change in Tropical
Cyclone Intensity and Track (Xiamen, China, 18-20 October 2011)
• WMO/WWRP Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop (Beijing, China, 1214 October 2011)
• Meeting of the WG on Tropical Meteorology Research (Beijing, China,
10-11 October 2011)
• 9th Meeting of the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee
(Geneva, WMO Headquaters, 21-22 September 2011)
2010-11 WWRP meetings
• 9th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting
(Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 31 August - 2
September 2011)
• Fourth Meeting of the THORPEX DAOS Working Group (Exeter, UK, 27-28 June 2011)
• Fourth meeting of the THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group
(ECMWF, UK, 21 June 2011)
• Workshop on "Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate
prediction models"
(ECMWF, UK, 20-24 June 2011);
• THORPEX European Regional meeting
(Karlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May);
• YOTC International Science Symposium and 8th AMY International Workshop
(Beijing, China, 16-19 May 2011)
• Fourth meeting of the WWRP JSC
(Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 21-24 February) ;
• Joint WWRP-THORPEX / World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) workshop on “Subseasonal to seasonal prediction”, United Kingdom in 2010;
• WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop, “Improvement of Weather and Environmental
Prediction in Polar Regions”, Norway in 2010.
• Thank you!
• Merci!