Transcript Concepts & Studies - Cranfield University

Future Concepts
Turning Water into Wine
Keith Goodman
Dstl Programmes Area
Joint Studies and Experimentation
[email protected]
The Customer
The Development, Concepts and
Doctrine Centre will:
Produce concepts and doctrine –
underpinned by thorough research –
to help inform decisions in Defence
strategy, capability development and
operations, both now and into the
future.
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
The Concepts
• A series of papers that
provide a conceptual
view on how the
armed forces should
operate out to 2030
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Concept to Capability
Shaping
Innovation
Developing ideas
Articulation and
ordering of ideas
Research
Experimentation
Insights and impacts
Ideas &
Context
Concept
Development
Literature search
Academia
Industry
MoD Research
Concepts
Analysis
Experimentation
Exploitation
Force Structure
& Capability
Implications
Studies
?
?
Seminars
Seminars // Workshops
Workshops
Stage
2
Defence Implications
Stage
3
Technology Games
Equipme
nt Plan
Sta
ge
4
Stage
1
Stage
5
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Concept Test
• Support concept generation and exploitation:
– Providing evidence of credibility and feasibility.
– Refining key themes of conceptual ideas.
– Clarifying conceptual interactions and interdependencies.
– Supporting subsequent conceptual innovation.
– Providing key insights for exploitation via capability development
programmes.
Concept
Concept
Generation
Development
Learning:
Refinement &
Validation
Capability
Development
Analysis &
Experimentation
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Our aim
• To produce a conceptual tool/technique that:
– Can include every Concept
– Includes linkages between elements
– Offers ease of access to evidence
Concept
Concept
Issues &
Themes
– Is easy to use
Prioritised
Research,
Analysis &
Experimentation
questions
Assess
deductions &
implications for
Concept
Update Evidence
base
Review
Existing
Evidence &
Conduct Gap
Analysis
Engage with
programmed A&E
Conduct Bespoke
A&E as required
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
How we do it
Concept 1
Concept 1
Concept 1
Concept 1
A.N Author
Concept 1
A.N Author
Concept 1
A.N Author
Concept 1
A.N Author
A.N Author
A.N Author
A.N Author
Written concepts
•Key statements identified then separated and
classified into contextual, descriptive or
specified or implied direction
Themes identified
•Statements tend towards a number of
reoccurring themes
Themes clustered
Variables assigned
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© Dstl 2009
Model generated
•Relationships exist between themes – these
can be mapped using social network analysis
on strength, orientation etc Filters applied for
P&P, S&T, Legal etc
•Values or bounds now need to be applied to
these inter-related directions
is part of the
•Direction and bounds combined on aDstl
given
Ministry of Defence
thematic basis
Themes identified
Key
Themes
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Concepts Analytical Model
• Uses social network analysis
• A single network cluster combines all
concepts
• Incorporates database:
– Associates, context, evidence
base, links to DLoDs,
programmed work etc for every
element
• Concept, concept theme or bespoke topic can be
extracted, at varying levels of resolution allowing the
Concepts to feed into (for example) MoD planning,
wider MoD programmes
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
By scoring the strength of relationships …
Themes
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 0
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 0 0 0
T
h
e
m
e
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 1
0 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0
1 0 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 2
2 0 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Lots of relationships …
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Individual themes …
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Can be linked
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Concept Test Results
Operational Effectiveness
Sufficiently Trained
Personnel
Evolving
Databases
Virtual Knowledge
Databases
Dynamic
Clear Governance
Improved SA
Single Inform
Community.
Coordinated Collection
Management
Successful
Team Working
Human skills and
culture
Security
Management
Single Inform
Infrastructure
Forming
Reduced Operator Work load
Common strategic objectives and
policy goals.
Mature
Network
Information owners
Networked
CoI/P
Timely exploitation of i2
Civil and military co-ordination
Enterprise Wide Collaborative
Working Tool
Human Linkages
Networked Linkages
Joint Intelligence Requirement
Management
Distributed
Collaborative Working
TTPs
good communications
Information
Access
Information Sharing
Virtual Co-location
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Variables
All members of staff will have access to all
parts of the network even at home
Networked
All members of staff will have access to the
network at work but home access will be
limited
The network will be available at work but
there will be no home access
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Concept Test Results
Operational Effectiveness
Sufficiently Trained
Personnel
Databases
No Go
Virtual Knowledge
Databases
Improved SA
Coordinated Collection
Management
Successful
Team Working
Human skills and
culture
Forming
Go
Civil and military co-ordination
Enterprise Wide Collaborative
Working Tool
Human Linkages
Networked Linkages
Joint Intelligence Requirement
Management
Distributed
Collaborative Working
Go
Security
Management
Single Inform
Infrastructure
Reduced Operator Work load
Common strategic objectives and
policy goals.
Mature
Network
Evolving
Dynamic
Clear Governance
Single Inform
Community.
Information owners
Networked
CoI/P
Timely exploitation of i2
TTPs
good communications
Information
Access
Slow Go
Information Sharing
Virtual Co-location
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Summary
• We have produced a method of developing concepts
• We have begun to use the method to validate concepts
• We have generated a model that allows promotion of the
concepts to a wider audience
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Acknowledgments
• DCDC
• Dr Kay Uppington
• Dr Gerrard Finbow
21 July 2015
© Dstl 2009
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
End
Questions?