Transcript Operational Analysis in Dstl

Operational Analysis in Dstl
Steve Lea, Chief Scientist
Policy and Capability Studies
LASEORS - 9 Nov 04
Dstl Department Structure
Policy & Capability Studies
Miles Hunt
Systems
Peter Starkey
Naval Systems
Neil Stansfield
Science
Richard Scott
Air Systems
Kevin Wagstaff
Information Management
Paul James
Technology
Mike Jenden
Land Systems
John Hunt
Joint Systems
Chris Gibson
Missiles & Countermeasures
Alistair Feltham
Environmental Sciences
John Richards
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Energetics
Simon Sanderson
Biomedical Sciences
Mark Fulop
Sensors
Alec McKie
Detection
Alexis Hammer
Electronics
Ken Brigden
Physics
Sue Holmes
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Linking Research and Analysis
Capability Managers
ADVICE
Integrated research, analysis and assessment
changes in
world
circumstance,
policy, needs
achievable
performance and
cost
technology
breakthroughs,
civil technology,
‘blue skies’
research
Systems
design
Systems
analysis
new
operational
concepts,
scenarios,
doctrine
performance and
cost goals
experience and lessons identified from in-service assessment
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Policy & Capability Studies Department
Policy formulation
Peacetime management
Capability
planning
Policy
Operational training
Operations
Procurement
Force
planning
Support to
Operations
Manpower and
training
Logistics
WHY ARE WE HERE?
Equipment acquisition
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl/CP12170
“To support MOD in making the best policy,
procurement and operational decisions”
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Policy and Capability Studies
Department
• The Policy and Capability
Studies Department undertakes
high level operational analysis
to support MOD and wider
government in its decision
making processes.
• Main areas of activity are:
– support to policy formulation
– support to overall force
planning
– support doctrine development
and concepts of operation
– support to military capability
decisions
– support to peacetime
management of MOD
– support to other Government
departments
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl/CP12170
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Department
Manager
Policy & Capability Studies
Chief
Scientist
Operations
GL
GL
GL
GL
GL
GL
Policy and
Planning
Analysis
Strategic
Analysis
Equipment
Capability
Analysis
Logistics
Analysis
Analysis
Experimentation
& Simulation
Support to
Operations
Co-ord
Programme
Co-Ord
Policy Assessment
Resource
Co-ord
Strategic Effects
Analysis
Force Structure
Analysis
Manning
Operational Effects
Analysis
Costs
Logistics
Joint BOI
Sustainability
Data and OA
Model Support
Future Analysis
Methods
C4/ISTAR
Operations
Support
PJHQ
Deployment
AWC
Waddington
Development
AWC
Waddington
Operations
MWC
Concepts/Doctrine
Campaign
Development
Historical Analysis
& Pol-Mil Gaming
Information Campaign
Support
Sea/Air
Analysis
Land/Air
Analysis
CBRN/Medical
Training
OAB, HQ
Synthetic
Environment
Techniques
Land Warfare
Centre
AWC
Northwood
Maritime
AWC
High Wycombe
(JFAC)
Graduate Group
Experimentation
Administration Group
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Support to Operations (S2O)
The Work
• The aim of the Support to Operations Group is to provide analysis and
scientific advice on military trials, exercises and operations
• The Group has 75 staff
– Over 50 embedded in Headquarters,
Warfare Centres
• Ready to deploy to theatre with UK forces
– Gulf War 1 , Bosnia and Kosovo, Afghanistan,
Op Telic
• Support to Other Government Departments
– Fuel Crisis (Home Office), Foot and Mouth(DEFRA,
Cabinet Office), Fire-fighters Strike (Cabinet Office)
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl/CP12170
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Support to Operations (S2O)
The Impact
Examples of Recent Iraq Analysis Support (1)
• Combat Operations Support
• Post Combat Support
– Strategic, Operational and
Tactical Wargaming/Course of
Action analysis
– Continuous Iraqi Attitude
Survey (CIAS)
– Casualty profiling/medical
analysis
– Fuel Analysis
– Logistics analysis - ammunition
requirements
– Contacts Analysis
– Campaign Measures of
Effectiveness
– Review of impact of weather on
Combat Operations
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl/CP12170
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Strategic Analysis (SA)
The Work
• SA provides support to (evidence-based) development and testing of
Policy, Strategy and Plans
• Develops and undertakes techniques for adversary analysis
– e.g. regime leadership and non-state actor networks
• Undertakes Historical Analysis
• Analysis of regional security issues
• Helps understanding of how socio-technical systems might respond to
intervention
• Focus on senior decision-makers’ needs (MoD & OGD)
• Expand the areas where OA can give useful advice
• Adapt the ways in which OA supports decisions
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl/CP12170
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Strategic Analysis - how it does it
Regime-level
modelling
Regional risk
assessment
Influence
analysis
Evidence-based
policy support
Scenario-based
planning
Strategic
Assessment
Method
(SAM)
International
Relations
Political
Science
Analysis of
Socio-technical
systems
Info Ops planning
Contingency planning
& evaluation
support
Historical
analysis
Strategic
gaming
Effects-based
Planning
Content &
context analysis
Strategic
roadmapping
Social network
analysis
Pol-Mil
gaming
System
dynamics
Operational Psychology Philosophy, Maths
Analysis
Law, Ethics, & Stats
War Studies,
Physical
Intelligence
Management
Economics
Sciences
analysis
& Systems Science
Anthropology,
Sociology
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl/CP12170
Multi-disciplinary teams
Strategy &
Policy development
& assessment
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
07 July 2015
© Dstl 2001
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence