Transcript Development of UK EBO Analysis: The Big Picture

Development of UK EBO Analysis
The
Big Picture
Philip Jones
Team Leader (Operational Effects Analysis)
Dstl Policy and Capability Studies
Dstl/CP16578
Policy statements
• “The ability to detect the emergence of threats to understand
their nature, and our adversaries’ motivations, intentions and
capabilities allows us to target their weaknesses and better
identify our own vulnerabilities.”
Defence White Paper 2003
• “The highest level of priority should be accorded to research
aimed at improving the modelling of operations from an effects
based perspective”
MoD Technology Strategy
• “The implications [of EBO] on campaign development, ISR and
target selection need to be investigated as well as developing
metrics for and the modelling of such non-kinetic approaches”.
JCB Insights
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Content
• EBO Context
• Overview of the analytical Challenge
• The ‘Big Picture’ of UK Analytical Developments
• Drivers and resistors to further development
• Conclusions
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
6 Flavours!*
• Efficient targeting
* From: Joshua Ho, The advent of a new way of war:
the theory and practice of EBO
– Exploit enemy weak points by analysing capabilities as a total system
• A planning methodology
– Emphasises strategy to task links
• Application of all sources of national power
– Diplomatic, military and economic
• Rapid Dominance
– Rapid and synergistic application of force
• Dealing with uncertainty
– Arising from a complex adaptive adversary
• Network-centric Warfare
– Improve agility, co-ordination, mobilisation of knowledge and expertise
to defeat a complex adaptive adversary
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
The
Analytical
Challenge
Leadership
targets
“Physical” military
targets
Cyberspace
infrastructure
Modelling limited
to direct effects
C3 and
industry
Goal
Tanks, soldiers
Current
State of
the art?
Direct
military
operations
Instruments
Integration
and
adaptation
Information Political / Military
warfare
military Forces
economic
Head-onhead
Manoeuvre
of forces
and fires
Soft factors
Perceptions
Decisions
Societal behaviour
From Davis P K, EBO: A Grand Challenge
for the Analytical Community (RAND, 2001)
Targets in cognitive and
behavioural domains
Networked
and
dynamic
The Analytical challenge
Current Analytical Focus
Diplomatic
Military
Economic
Insight Resilience Reassure Transform Prevent Deter Coerce Disrupt Defeat Destroy Stabilise
Strategic Planning Effects
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
So what’s MoD doing ...
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
EBO - The Big Picture
Operational context
Policy and capability context
Policy
Capability
Dev’t
Dev’t
Joint Vision
EBA - Comprehensive Approach
EBO
Concepts
SubProcesses
Tools
Specific BoI
Effects Based
Approach to
Operations
Planning
Mil / Expert
Judgement
Execution
Planning
Tools
Knowledge Base
Analysis
Tools
Assessment
Experimentation
COEIAs
M&S
Environment
DSG
Force
Development
EC BoI
EBO Doctrine
Processes
Strategic
Trends
FCD
Pol Mil
Gaming
Force
Structures
OA Studies
Campaign
Models
Historical
Analysis
Empirical
Underpinning Knowledge /
Specific
Information sets
Context
Theoretical
Raw Data
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
MoD Analytical Development: Key Stakeholders
Operational context
Policy and capability context
Policy
Capability
Dev’t
Pol Dev’t
Joint Vision
JDCC
D Strat
Plans
EBA -DIS
Comprehensive Approach
EBO
Concepts
DEP
PJHQ
JTFHQ
SubProcesses
Tools
Planning
Warfare
Centres
Mil / Expert
Judgement
HQ
ARRC
Execution
CCII
Planning
Tools
ISTAR
DTIO
Knowledge Base
Analysis
Tools
DFD
Specific BoI
Effects Based
Approach to
Operations
Assessment
CBM J6
Force
Structures
DTA
COEIAs
DAES M&S
Experimentation
Environment
DSG
Force
Development
EC BoI
EBO Doctrine
Processes
Planning
Strategic
Trends
FCD
Pol Mil
Gaming
OA Studies
Campaign
Models
Historical
Analysis
S&A
Empirical
Underpinning Knowledge /
Specific
Information sets
Context
Theoretical
Raw Data
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
MoD Analytical Development: Key Developers
Operational context
Policy and capability context
Policy
Capability
Dev’t
Dev’t
Joint Vision
JDCC
EBA - Comprehensive Approach
EBO
Concepts
FCD
Processes
SubProcesses
Tools
Effects Based
Approach to
Operations
Planning
Mil / Expert
Judgement
Warfare
Centres
Execution
OAB
HQ ARRC
Knowledge Base
Niteworks
Planning
Qinetiq
Tools
Analysis
Tools
Specific BoI
J5(OA)
PJHQ
Deployed
OA Cells
Assessment
Experimentation
DSG
Force
Development
EC BoI
EBO Doctrine
Strategic
Trends
COEIAs
M&S
Pol Mil
Environment
Dstl Gaming
Force
Structures
OA Studies
Campaign
Models
Historical
Analysis
DTIO
Empirical
Underpinning Knowledge /
Specific
Information sets
Context
Theoretical
Raw Data
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
MoD Analytical Development: Example Outputs
Operational context
Policy and capability context
Policy
Capability
Dev’t
Dev’t
Joint Vision
Concepts
Strategic Assessment
EBA - Comprehensive
Approach
EBO
Method
EC BoI
EBO Doctrine
Processes
SubProcesses
Tools
Target
System
Effects
Based
Analysis
Collateral
Damage
Approach to
Operations
Personality
profiling
Cultural
Assessment
Air Ops
Framework
Metrics
Best Practice
Specific BoI
Attitude
Assessment
Planning
Tools
Info Ops Planning
Tool
Underpinning Knowledge /
Information sets
Analysis
Tools
Experimentation
Development
COEIAs
M&S
Environment
Force
Structures
State regime
Intent Change
OA Studies
Targeting physical
networks
Pol Mil
Campaign
Historical
Gaming
Models
Analysis
Attitudinal MoEs
Empirical
Remote Attitude
Assessment
Specific
Context
Theoretical
Modelling
socio-technical
networks
Remote Personality
Profiling
Role of
Raw Data
‘White’
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Force
Development
Joint
Campaign
State regime
coercion
Historical
Planning
Execution
Knowledge Base
Assessment
Analysis
EB Planning Social Network Influence
Analysis
Analysis
Tool
Mil / Expert
Judgement
Strategic
Revised
Planning
DSG
Trends
Scenarios
FCD
Understanding
NSAs
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
How are we doing? (as at Aug 05)
• Domain: Physical, Cognitive
• Adversary types: State actors, NSAs
• White: just starting
• Blue: political will and coalition dynamics
• Range of strategic planning effects: Coercion, others
• Level of Effect: strategic, operational, tactical
• Persistence: short and long-term intent change
• Means and ways: Instruments of Power; physical and
information
• Desired and undesired effects
• Lines of development: awaiting Effects Development Plan
• Analytical capability: measurement; modelling
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
How are we doing?
• Overall, we MoD and the International defence analytical
community are making progress
But …
• It requires concerted multi-year research
– Based on theory
– Often drawing on empirical ‘real world’ information
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Drivers and Resistors
Leadership
targets
“Physical” military
targets
Cyberspace
infrastructure
“Physical”
military
targets
Modelling limited
to direct effects
C3 and
industry
Goal
Tanks, soldiers
Current
Instruments
Integration
and
adaptation
Direct
military
operations
Information Political
/ Military
warfare
military Forces
economic
State of
the art?
Direct
military
operations
Head-onhead
Manoeuvre
of forces
and fires
Soft factors
Perceptions
Targets in cognitive and
behavioural domains
Decisions
Societal behaviour
Targets in cognitive and
behavioural domains
Networked
and
dynamic
Drivers and Resistors:
Geo-political context
• Increased emphasis on security
outcomes, not just battle outcomes
“Physical”
military
targets
– hence revised planning scenarios
• 87% of operational manpower effort spent
on sustained Peace Support Operations*
– Critical to support other instruments of
power
Direct
military
operations
Instruments
– Critical to change attitudes / behaviour
• Increasingly facing an asymmetrical
threat
– No tanks, aircraft and ships to target!
• Big drive for EBO from the US Military
Targets in cognitive and
behavioural domains
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
* Based on Historical Analysis of Deployed
Land Operations 1996-2003
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Drivers and Resistors:
Nature of the Science Base
“Physical”
military
targets
• Need to incorporate the ‘soft’ sciences
– e.g. Psychology, anthropology,
international relations
Complex
– Tiny minority of scientists in MoD
• Not easy to exploit
Soft
Instruments
Hard
Direct
military
operations
– Interpretive v Functionalist
– Multiple competing theories
• Raises validation issues
– Need to understand the differing
philosophical perspectives
Targets in cognitive and
behavioural domains
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Drivers and Resistors:
Current research priorities
• No MoD EBO analytical development
strategy [Effects Development Plan]
“Physical”
military
targets
– Policy priorities are not being translated
into research priorities
– Decreasing budgets force emphasis on
‘core business’
• Focus on:
Instruments
EC Focus
Direct
military
operations
Targets in cognitive and
behavioural domains
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
– Long-term equipment acquisition
• Reducing acquisition risk not
operational risk
• No research output for Support to
Ops
– Intensive ‘Warfighting’ Ops
– Intra-defence research collaboration
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Drivers and Resistors:
Current research BoI
• <1% of the S&T Research Budget is
being spent to ‘expand the diamond’
“Physical”
military
targets
1%
(3%)
Instruments
99%
(97%)
• <<1% of the equipment programme is
being spent to develop associated
capabilities
Direct
military
operations
• Human adversary research amounts to
only 3% of Output 4 Human Capabilities
Domain
Targets in cognitive and
behavioural domains
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
MoD Analytical Development: Example Outputs
Operational context
Policy and capability context
Policy
Capability
Dev’t
Dev’t
Joint Vision
Concepts
Strategic Assessment
EBA - Comprehensive
Approach
EBO
Method
EC BoI
EBO Doctrine
Processes
SubProcesses
Tools
Target
System
Effects
Based
Analysis
Collateral
Damage
Approach to
Operations
Personality
profiling
Cultural
Assessment
Air Ops
Framework
Metrics
Best Practice
Specific BoI
Attitude
Assessment
Planning
Tools
Info Ops Planning
Tool
Underpinning Knowledge /
Information sets
Analysis
Tools
Experimentation
Development
COEIAs
M&S
Environment
Force
Structures
State regime
Intent Change
OA Studies
Targeting physical
networks
Pol Mil
Campaign
Historical
Gaming
Models
Analysis
Attitudinal MoEs
Empirical
Remote Attitude
Assessment
Specific
Context
Theoretical
Modelling
socio-technical
networks
Remote Personality
Profiling
Role of
Raw Data
‘White’
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Force
Development
Joint
Campaign
State regime
coercion
Historical
Planning
Execution
Knowledge Base
Assessment
Analysis
EB Planning Social Network Influence
Analysis
Analysis
Tool
Mil / Expert
Judgement
Strategic
Revised
Planning
DSG
Trends
Scenarios
FCD
Understanding
NSAs
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
MoD Analytical Development: Ongoing Activity
Operational context
Policy and capability context
Policy
Capability
Dev’t
Dev’t
Joint Vision
Concepts
Strategic Assessment
EBA - Comprehensive
Approach
EBO
Method
EC BoI
EBO Doctrine
Processes
SubProcesses
Tools
Target
System
Effects
Based
Analysis
Collateral
Damage
Approach to
Operations
Personality
profiling
Cultural
Assessment
Air Ops
Framework
Metrics
Best Practice
Planning
Tools
Info Ops Planning
Tool
Analysis
Tools
Attitude
Assessment
Experimentation
Empirical
Remote Attitude
Development
Force
Structures
State regime
coercion
COEIAs
M&S
Environment
State regime
Intent Change
OA Studies
Targeting physical
networks
Pol Mil
Campaign
Historical
Gaming
Models
Analysis
Attitudinal MoEs
Assessment
Underpinning Knowledge /
Specific
Information sets
Context
Theoretical
Modelling
socio-technical
networks
Remote Personality
Profiling
Role of
Raw Data
‘White’
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Force
Development
Joint
Campaign
Specific BoI
Historical
Planning
Execution
Knowledge Base
Assessment
Analysis
EB Planning Social Network Influence
Analysis
Analysis
Tool
Mil / Expert
Judgement
Strategic
Revised
Planning
DSG
Trends
Scenarios
FCD
Understanding
NSAs
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Conclusions
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Conclusions
• “The greatest risk to UK security is that the strategic
environment will change more quickly than the UK can
acquire and / or apply resources to meet that threat”
JDCC - Strategic Trends 2003
• The UK’s analytical capabilities are slowly adapting to
changes in the strategic environment
– Still overwhelmingly focused on defeating state opponents in short,
high intensity conflict
• Increasing the pace of change will require:
– Effective and bold leadership
– Better alignment of research priorities to policy and operational needs
– A greater concern for mitigating near-term operational risk
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Policy statements
• “The ability to detect the emergence of threats to understand
their nature, and our adversaries’ motivations, intentions and
capabilities allows us to target their weaknesses and better
identify our own vulnerabilities.”
Defence White Paper 2003
• “The highest level of priority should be accorded to research
aimed at improving the modelling of operations from an effects
based perspective”
MoD Technology Strategy
• “The implications [of EBO] on campaign development, ISR and
target selection need to be investigated as well as developing
metrics for and the modelling of such non-kinetic approaches”.
JCB Insights
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
The reality
• Very little funding available to support development of
studies into the theoretical / leadership / social /
cognitive aspects of EBO
• Overwhelming focus remains on research to promote
the acquisition of equipment to achieve physical effects
in high intensity conflict
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Questions
• “The ability to detect the emergence of threats to understand
their nature, and our adversaries’ motivations, intentions and
capabilities allows us to target their weaknesses and better
identify our own vulnerabilities.”
Defence White Paper 2003
• “The highest level of priority should be accorded to research
aimed at improving the modelling of operations from an effects
based perspective”
MoD Technology Strategy
• “The implications [of EBO] on campaign development, ISR and
target selection need to be investigated as well as developing
metrics for and the modelling of such non-kinetic approaches”.
JCB Insights
7th June 2005
© Dstl 2005
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence