Transcript Slide 1

Implementing National Security
Through Technology – How to deliver
capability in an uncertain world
David Dean, Dstl Joint Systems Dept, UK
[email protected]
16 July 2015
© Crown copyright 2014 Dstl
OFFICIAL
The Budgetary Resilience Project
Issue based requirements:
Strategic requirements:
Head Office/CSA strategic S&T requirements:
White Paper (National Security Through
Technology) implementation
Freedom of Action
Exportability
Cost of Reqts.
Cost of Standards
Requestor/Deliverer
requirements
CSA – Chief Scientific Advisor
S&T – Science and Technology
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Strategic Requirement: Cost & capability
aware requirements definition: Informed,
coherent & policy compliant requirements
development & definition. Providing a
foundation for:
• Militarily effective systems
• Cost effective through life capability
• UK competitiveness
Defence Transformation (Customer Design)
strategic S&T requirements:
Requestor to Deliverer Requirements process
OFFICIAL
Predicting the future!
Disruptive
Technology
Technology
Threat
Technology
Commercial
Lead
Redundant
technology
Adaptability
Emerging
Technology
Defence
Policy Change
DLODS
Supportability
Infrastructure
Rationalisation
Manpower
reduction
Merger
Acquisition
Freedom Of Action
Industry
Receivership
Intervention
Now
SDSR
Conflict
SDSR
SDSR
SDSR
SDSR
Context
Change
Business focus
New
Threat
Legislation
Conflict
Operational
Advantage and
Agility
Now + 30 Years
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Present and Future Activities
•
Cost Leadership
– Costs across the Lines of Development, The MOSAIC Model
•
Defence Transformation
– Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S) and Defence Infrastructure
Organisation (DIO) strategic partnering
•
Operational Advantage and Freedom of Action
– A risk based approach to sovereignty assessment
•
Requirement Setting and Management
– Improving the way MOD sets and manages its requirements
•
Defence Exports
– How to set requirements to that both MOD and Industry can gain
from overseas sales
•
Future Activities
– Defence Standards
– Open and Modular Systems
– Off The Shelf Procurement
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The Modular Open Systems
Architecture Integrated Cost (MOSAIC)
Framework
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The benefits of Open System
Architectures
Source: Arke 168.001RP MOSAIC Familiarisation Handbook v4
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The MOSAIC Framework
• Enables the lifecycle costs of open architecture options to be
compared against a common closed baseline
• Developed in 2012 to support a requirement from DE&S Cost
Assurance and Analysis Service (CAAS)
• A seven stage modelling process was developed
• Arke Ltd awarded a contract to develop a Monte-Carlo cost
modelling simulation tool
• Process needs to be undertaken by cost experts closely
supported by stakeholders
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7 stage process
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Example Outputs
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Exploitation
• To date MOSAIC has been used by DE&S project
teams to support Balance of Investment (BOI)
decision making on over 13 open system projects
including:
– Generic Vehicle Architecture (GVA) on Challenger and
Foxhound,
– The Active Integrated Protection System,
– Maritime Combat System projects including T23 (Destroyer)
and the Future Low Altitude Defence System (FLAADS)
– The helicopter Common Defensive Aids System (CDAS)
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OFFICAL
Operational Advantage (Op Adv) and
Freedom of Action (FOA) Framework
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What is Operational Advantage?
“Operational advantage is the ability to find and maintain an edge over
potential adversaries, both to increase the chances of our success in hostile
situations and to increase the protection of the UK assets involved, especially
our people. This is also fundamental to the overall effect that a given
capability can achieve.”
“we often need superior technology and other forms of battle-winning edge
(so-called “operational advantage”)
NSTT pg26 & 14
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What is Freedom of Action?
This definition is about FoA
in operational space
“Freedom of action is the ability to determine our internal and external affairs
and act in the country’s interests free from intervention by other states or entities,
in accordance with our legal obligations. This freedom is the essence of national
sovereignty. It is also essential to be able to use a capability effectively, although
not at any cost ………
…… able to use them – or continue to use them – whenever we need to; and that
when we do so, they will perform as we require.”
“we must be able to operate, maintain, and refresh certain capabilities effectively,
without being dependent on others (so-called “freedom of action”)
This definition is about FoA in
capability development space
NSTT pg26 & 14
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Purpose of Framework
• Enable commands:
– take a consistent approach to implementing the NSTT principles
• Open procurement
• Technology advantage
– identify risks they could be exposed to in their equipment acquisition
programmes/projects
• That could reduce Operational Advantage or Freedom of Action
• Identify what needs to be protected
– identify opportunities for reducing costs through technology
• Gather evidence for Business Cases to demonstrate that
procurement strategy complies with NSTT principles and will
deliver value for money
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System complexity
(in terms of no. sub-systems)
Some examples
Cpx
wpns
Low
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Risk to Op Adv/FoA
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High
The Framework Risk assessment process
•
Framework been designed to:
– assess risk to Op Adv and FoA in preparation of key acquisition
decision points
•
Level of detail in risk assessment varies accordingly
– Can be undertaken against the entire capability, or subsystem
elements, or different design or procurement options
•
Not all questions will be relevant
– at Genesis Option (generating new capability options)
solution/subsystem/option specific questions may not be
relevant
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2. Acquire and deliver
effective BWE
• Intelligent Customer
• Acquire the battle
winning edge
• Use capability
effectively
• Sustain the battle
winning edge
3. Ability to
4. Sustaining Op Adv and use acquired
FoA through technology
capability
effectively
Framework
Structure
(top level)
1. Understand
1.1
Ability to identify and understand how to access the BWE and achieve
Op Adv and FoA
1.2 Ability to set requirements that optimise Op Adv and FoA
1.3 Ability to understand risks in the supply chain
1.4
Ability to identify investment requirements and priorities for skills
development
2.1
Ability to gain effective access to critical capability elements through
time (consider accessibility of UK and non-UK sources)
2.2
Ability to effectively exploit accessible critical capability elements
through time (UK and non-UK)
2.3
Ability to prevent third party from exploiting vulnerability in supply chain
2.4
Ability to prevent third party from exploiting unintentional vulnerability in
system design
3.1
Ability to understand performance of system under specified conditions
in theatre
3.2
Ability to use how, when and where we need to, at performance level
required
4.1
Ability to keep pace with threat evolution; regulatory or environmental
changes
4.2
Ability to effectively maintain systems
4.3
Ability to effectively insert new BWE technologies into existing
systems/sub-systems
4.4
Ability to prevent third party exploitation of recovered equipment /
information / capability
Impacts will be across
Performance Cost and Time
• The basic questions are:
– Can you spend your way out of the risk?
– Can you wait to develop a solution?
– Can you live with the shortfall?
• The answers to these questions will be for
consideration within the business case for the
capability
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If there is an FOA issue, does this
mean we need to protect UK industry?
• For critical national capabilities – possibly
• For struggling industries - not necessarily
• Can we get what we want overseas, in such a way that FOA is
assured?
– International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and licencing can be
significant issues
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Summary
• The Budgetary Resilience project in Dstl is
undertaking critical research associated with NSTT
implementation across MOD
• The project has provided key evidence to support
ongoing defence transformation initiatives
• The MOSAIC and Op Adv/FOA frameworks are
examples of products that are delivering impact
across the Front Line Commands (FLCs) and
Equipment Programme.
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Questions
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