Transcript Comparing Top Down and Bottom Up Models

Model Comparison:
Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Models
P.R. Shukla
Classification of Energy Sector Models
Energy Models
Top-Down
Bottom-Up
Technology
Assessment
Macro- Optimisation
& Simulation
Equilibrium
Single-Country
Multi-Region
Reference Energy System
Resource
Secondary Energy
Technology
End-Use
Lighting
Coal
Gas
Light Bulb
Electricity
Generation
Cooking
Car
Transport
Heater
Heating
Crude Oil
Stove
Drive
Renewable
Oil
Refinery
Motor
Irrigation
Nuclear
Pump
Water Supply
Representative Bottom-up Model Flow Chart (MARKAL)
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY
MINING
IMPORT
COLLECTION
RENEWAB LE
EXPORT
COAL
N. GAS
OIL
BIOMASS
NUCLEAR
RENEWABLE
45
CAPITAL
AGRICULTURE
ENDUSE DEVICES
ELECTRICITY
PRODUCTION
PUMP
TRACTOR
COAL GAS
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
SOLAR
ENERGY
FURNACE
MOTOR
75
BUS
TRAIN
PETROLEUM
REFINERY GAS
PROCESSING
STOVE
FAN
EMISSIONS
35
COMMERCIAL
LIGHT BULB
COOLER
FUEL
PROCESSING
ENVIRONMENT
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
90
RESIDENTIAL
Representative Top-down Model Flow Chart (SGM 2000)
AGRICULTURE
grains and oil seeds
animal products
forestry
food processing
other agricultural services
PRIMARY FACTORS
OF PRODUCTION
land surface
subsurface resources
labor
capital
ENERGY
oil production
gas production
petroleum refining
gas distribution
coke and coal products
biomass production
uranium production
hydro and solar electric power
electricity production
EVERYTHING ELSE
paper and pulp manufacture
chemical manufacture
cement manufacture
primary iron and steel
primary non-ferrous metals
other manufacturing
passenger transport
freight stransport
other services
HOUSEHOLDS
demographics
labor supply
land supply
household savings
final product demands
GOVERNMENT
general government
national defense
education
Comparative Dimensions
Paradigm
Space
Sector
Time
Top-Down
(Integrated assessment)
Global and
Atmospheric
Macroeconomy
Long Term
Top-Down
(Economic equilibrium)
Global,
National,
Regional
Macroeconomy
Long Term
Bottom-Up
(Optimization)
National,
Regional
Energy
Long
Term/Medi
um Term
Sub-Sector
Medium
Term/Short
Term
Bottom-Up
National,
(Optimization / Accounting) Regional,
Local
Model Examples
Paradigm
Examples
Issues Addressed
Top-Down
Integrated Assessment Model
Impact of market measures (like
carbon tax) on atmospheric chemistry
and cost to economies
Top-Down
Economic Equilibrium models
(SGM, CRTM, CETA)
Impact of market measures on global
emissions and cost to economies
Bottom-Up
Optimization
MARKAL, EFOM, BEEAM
Impact of market measures and other
energy policies (like subsidies,
technology regulations) on technology
mix, fuel mix, emissions and cost to
energy system.
Bottom-Up
Optimization/A
ccounting
End-use sector models (e.g. AIM/
END USE), Power sector, Coal
sector models
Impact of subsectoral policies on
subsectoral technology mix and
emissions; Planning for generation
mix; Power plant scheduling; Logistics
Relative Strengths
Top-down
Bottom-up
Market equilibrium approach Optimization approach
Higher sectoral aggregation
Better engineering /
technology description
Energy flows and demands in Energy flows and demands in
monetary units
material units
Endogenous representation of
most macroeconomic
parameters like prices and
demand elasticities
Better for policy analysis
involving impact assessment
of technology and fuel mix
within a sector
Soft Linked Integrated Modeling Framework
TOP DOWN MODELS
Productivity
SGM
ERB Model
Global Energy Prices
GDP Prices
Energy Balance
BOTTOM-UP MODELS
MARKAL
Scenarios
Stochastic MARKAL
Technology Details
Power Sector LP Model
End-use
Demand
Demand Projection
Technology Share
End-use Demand
Technology Specifications
AIM/ENDUSE
Health Costs
OTHER MODELS
Inventory Estimation Model
Emissions
GIS based Energy &
Emissions Model
Health Impact
Model
Model Characteristics: Bottom-Up Models
Model
End-Use Demand
Projection
AIM/ENDUSE
MARKAL
StochasticMARKAL
Objective
Output
Policy Analysis
Demand
Projections
consistent with
macroeconomic
scenario
End-use Sector Demand
Trajectory
Sectoral investment,
technology and
infrastructure policies
Minimize
discounted
sectoral cost
Sectoral energy, and
technology mix,
investments and
emissions
Sectoral technology,
energy, investment and
emissions control
policies
Minimize
discounted
Energy system
cost
National energy and
technology mix, energy
system investments, and
emissions
Energy sector policies
like energy taxes and
subsidies; energy
efficiency; emissions
taxes and targets
Minimize
expected value of
discounted system
cost
Energy and technology
mix under uncertain
future, Value of
information
Hedging strategies for
energy system
investments; identify
information needs
Model Characteristics: Top-Down Models
Model
Objective
Output
Policy Analysis
SGM
Determine
market clearing
prices for
economic sector
outputs
GDP and consumption
trajectories;, prices of
sectoral outputs and
energy; sectoral
investment patterns
Macro-economic
impacts of policy
interventions such as
energy tax / subsidies;
emissions limitations
ERB
Determine
Global /
Regional Energy
Prices and
Energy Use
Long-term global and
regional energy prices,
energy mix and
emissions
Implications of very
long-term global
energy resource, tech.
expectations
Model Characteristics: Other Models
Model
Objective
Output
Policy Analysis
Inventory
Estimation Model
Estimate national
emission
inventory for
various gases
National emission
inventory
GIS Based Energy
and Emission
Model
Determine
regional spread
of energy and
emissions
Regional maps
Power Sector LP
Model
Minimize
discounted
Power sector
cost
Power plant capacity
and generation mix,
emissions profile, total
costs
Power sector
technology, energy,
investment, emissions
control policies
Health Impact
Model
Estimate local
pollutant
emission impacts
on human health
Impact of individual
plants, per capita and
total national human
health impacts,
sensitivity analysis
Plant location and
stack height policies,
emission norm
analysis, enforcement
policy assessment
Regional and sectoral
emission variability,
bench-marking,
emission hot-spot
assessment
Linking energy and
environment policies
across time and space
Some Top-down Model
Results
GDP loss over base case: Carbon Tax scenarios
Tax Scenarios
0.00%
-0.50%
25/ tC
-1.00%
50/ tC
-1.50%
-2.00%
$100/ tC
-2.50%
-3.00%
-3.50%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy Consumption: Carbon Tax cases
Tax Scenarios
45
40
35
Exajoules
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1995
2000
Base
2005
$25 Tax
2010
2015
$50 Tax
2020
2025
$100 Tax
2030
Some Bottom-Up Model
Results
Technology Mix in Brick Production
140
120
100
80
High Draught
VSBK
Clamps (Biomass)
Bull trend Kiln 2
Bull trend Kiln 1
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Sectoral Energy consumption (EJ)
From 1995-2035
25
Commercial Grows 9
times
Agriculture Stagnates
Transport Grows 5 times
20
15
Exa Joules
Industry & Residential
Grow 3.5 times
Agriculture
Commercial
Transport
Residential
Industry
10
5
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035