Transcript Document

MARKAL PRESENTATION
P.R. Shukla
MARKet ALlocation Model
 Multi-period linear programming formulation
 Decision variables like,
 Investment in technology capacities & their
utilization
 Energy consumption
 Emissions
 Electricity generation in different time periods
MARKAL Overall Functioning
Techno-economic
Database
Economic
Scenario
MARKAL
Emission
Scenario
•Consumption and production of energy
•Marginal ‘values’ of energy forms and
emissions
•Introduction and abandonment of
technologies
Bottom up View of the Energy-Economy-Environment System
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY
MINING
IMPORT
COLLECTION
RENEWAB LE
EXPORT
COAL
N. GAS
OIL
BIOMASS
NUCLEAR
RENEWABLE
45
CAPITAL
AGRICULTURE
ENDUSE DEVICES
ELECTRICITY
PRODUCTION
PUMP
TRACTOR
COAL GAS
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
SOLAR
ENERGY
FURNACE
MOTOR
75
BUS
TRAIN
PETROLEUM
REFINERY GAS
PROCESSING
STOVE
FAN
EMISSIONS
35
COMMERCIAL
LIGHT BULB
COOLER
FUEL
PROCESSING
ENVIRONMENT
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
90
RESIDENTIAL
Typical Reference Energy System
SOURCES
IMPORT
EXTRACTION
COAL
BASED
ELECTRICITY
GENERATION
ELECTRIC
TRAIN
GAS BASED
IMPORT
END USE
TECHNOLOGIES
EXTRACTION
REFINERY 2
IMPORT
PETROLEUM
PROCESSING
EXTRACTION
REFINERY 1
IMPORT
DIESEL
BUS
TRANSPORT
DEMAND
EXTRACTION
Model Formulation
Objective Function
To minimize the discounted sum, over
40 yrs, of investment, operating and
maintenance cost of all technologies
plus the cost of energy imports and
carbon tax
Model Formulation (cntd.)
Subject to
1. Demand Constraint (one for each end use demand)
å
å
i  DMD
G  GRD
Cig(t) >= demandk (t)
V
k  DM, t  T
Where
DMD…end-use demand technology
GRD…set of grades technologies/energy sources
DM….class of all end use demands
T…..set of time periods
Cig(t)…capacity of technology i of grade G in period t
Model Formulation (cntd.)
1. Capacity transfer constraints
(to account for technology vintage carry
over time periods)
2. Energy carrier balance constraints
(supply >= demand of fuel)
3. Cumulative reserve constraints
(fuel extraction <= total reserves)
Model Formulation (cntd.)
4. Electricity balance constraints
(day and night time modelling for electricity
system)
5. Process technology capacity utilization
constraints
(process activity <= available capacity)
6. Electricity production capacity constraints
(electricity generation <= available capacity)
Model Formulation (cntd.)
7. Electricity peaking constraints
(extra capacity to meet peak demand)
8. Total emissions constraints
(Carbon, SO2 etc)
Software Configuration of the Indian MARKAL
Scenario
Generator
MUSS COMPATIBLE
DATA
MUSS
ADAPTED TO IM
FOXPRO/LOTUS
GAMS DEFINITIONS
GAMS
ADAPTED TO IM
TEXT OUTPUT
DATA
SPREADSHEETS
COMPILATION
FOXPRO
LOTUS
.DBF FILES
ANALYSIS
LEGENDS
FOXPRO/LOTUS
IM: INDIAN MARKAL
MUSS: MARKAL USERS SUPPORT SYSTEM
TABLES GRAPHS
WORDPERFECT
DRAWPERFECT
Modelling Non-linearities
Grades for:
 Technologies
 Energy Resources
TECHNOLOGY DEPLOYMENT
A Probabilistic Approach
Market Price
Median Cost
Technology 2
`
Battelle Memorial Institute
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION
A Probabilistic Approach
Market Price
Median Cost
Technology 1
Median Cost
Technology 2
`
Median Cost
Technology 3
What are likely Future Energy Trends
under Business-as-Usual (BAU)
From 1995-2035
 Commercial Energy
4 times
40
 Coal remains mainstay
 High Oil/Gas Imports
 Traditional Biomass
Stagnates
Exa Joules
 Energy Grows 3 times
50
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Oil
Hydro
Renewables
30
20
10
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
Sectoral Energy consumption (EJ)
 Industry & Residential
Grow 3.5 times
 Commercial Grows 9
times
 Agriculture Stagnates
 Transport Grows 5
times
25
20
15
Exa Joules
From 1995-2035
Agriculture
Commercial
Transport
Residential
Industry
10
5
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
Sectoral Electricity consumption (TWh)
From 1995-2035
 Agriculture share
declines from 28% to
10%
 Commercial and
Residential grow
faster
Consumption (TWh)
 Industry share
stagnates around 45%
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995
Industry
2000
2005
Residential
2010
2015
Commercial
2020
2025
Agriculture
2030
2035
Transport
Electricity Generation Capacity (GW)
From 1995-2035
 Gas share increases
from 8% to 23%
 Hydro stagnates
around 20%
Capacity (GW)
 Coal share declines
from 63% to 45%
400
300
200
100
0
1995
Coal
2005
Gas
Oil
2015
Hydro
2025
Nuclear
2035
Renewable
Electricity Generation (TWh)
From 1995-2035
 Gas share increases
from 7% to 19%
 Hydro stagnates
around 16%
2000
Generation (TWh)
 Coal share declines
from 74% to 61%
2500
1500
1000
500
0
1995
Coal
2000
Gas
2005
Oil
2010
2015
Hydro
2020
2025
Nuclear
2030
2035
Renewable
Carbon Emissions (MT)
800
730
Carbon (MT)
600
400
212
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Sectoral Carbon Emissions (MT)
Million Tons
800
600
400
200
0
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Year
Power Sector
Residential
Industry
Agriculture
Transport
Commercial
Carbon Emissions
1995
2010
5%
3%
0%
45%
35%
1%
0%
44%
33%
2%
14%
18%
2035
2%
0%
47%
28%
1%
22%
RESIDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
AGRICULTURE
POWER SECTOR
SO2 Emissions ('000 Tons)
7
Power sector
Industry
Total
6
Emissions
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
SO2 Kuznets Curve
10
2035
SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)
2020
8
2025
6
High
Base
Low
4
2
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
GDP per Capita (PPP$)
10000
12000
NOX Emissions (Million Tons)
10
Power sector
Transport
Total
Emissions
8
6
4
2
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
GDP, Energy and Electricity
3000
GDP
Commercial energy
Electricity
2500
Energy
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1975
1985
1995
2005
Year
2015
2025
2035
Marginal cost of electricity generation
(Cents/kWh)
9
8
Peak
Off-Peak
Average
7
Cost
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Mitigation Scenario
Analysis
Marginal Cost of Carbon Mitigation
(1995-2035)
60
Cost ($/Ton of Carbon)
50
40
6 billion tons of
mitigation below
$25/ ton of carbon
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Carbon abatement (billion ton)
7
Implications of Mitigation Targets
Coal to Gas Switch
Gas Demand
20
12
16
10
Exajoules
Exajoules
Coal Demand
12
8
8
6
4
4
2
0
1995
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
2025
Reference
1 BT (5%)
2 BT (10%)
3 BT (15%)
4 BT (20%)
5 BT (25%)
2035
Electricity Price under Mitigation Scenarios
Average LRMC
10
 Electricity Price Rises
with Mitigation
8
7
cents per kWh
 In 2035, price can
more than double
9
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Reference
1 BT (5%)
2 BT (10%)
3 BT (15%)
4 BT (20%)
5 BT (25%)
Electricity Price under Mitigation Scenarios
Peak
Off-Peak
15
cents per kWh
cents per kWh
15
12
9
6
12
9
6
3
3
0
1995
0
1995
2005
2015
2025
Reference
3 BT (15%)
2035
1 BT (5%)
4 BT (20%)
2005
2 BT (10%)
5 BT (25%)
2015
2025
2035
Implications of Mitigation Targets
Renewable Electricity
Renewable Electricity Capacity
Share of Renewable
100
25
Percentage
30
Giga Watt
120
80
60
40
20
15
10
20
5
0
0
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Reference
15 % Mitigation
1995
2005
2015
5 % Mitigation
25 % Mitigation
2025
2035
Implications of Mitigation Targets
Wind and Small Hydro Power
Small Hydro
20
10
16
8
12
6
Capacity (GW)
Capacity (GW)
Wind
8
4
0
1995
4
2
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
Reference
15 % Mitigation
1995
2005
2015
5 % Mitigation
25 % Mitigation
2025
2035
Implications of Mitigation Targets
Solar PV and Biomass Power
Biomass
Solar PV
18
60
16
50
12
Capacity (GW)
Capacity (GW)
14
10
8
6
4
2
0
1995
40
30
20
10
2005
2015
2025
Reference
15 % Mitigation
2035
0
1995
2005
5 % Mitigation
25 % Mitigation
2015
2025
2035
Consumption Trends
(Million Tons)
Coal
Oil Products
1500
400
1200
300
900
200
600
300
100
0
0
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
High Growth
1975
1985
Medium Growth
1995
2005
2015
Low Growth
2025
2035
Commercial Energy Demand and Intensity
Commercial Energy
Commercial Energy Intensity
1200
50
1000
toe / million Rs.
Mtoe
40
800
600
400
200
30
20
10
0
0
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
High Growth
Medium Growth
Low Growth
Low efficiency
Commercial Energy Demand
 Gradual Efficiency
Improvement
 Limited Fuel
Substitution
45
40
35
Exajoules
 Economic Growth
Drives Energy
Demand
50
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995
2005
High Growth
5.5%
2015
Medium Growth
5%
2025
2035
Low Growth
4.5%
Coal and Oil Demand
Oil
1400
350
1200
300
1000
250
Million Tons
Million Tons
Coal
800
600
200
150
400
100
200
50
0
1995
2005
2015
High Growth
2025
2035
0
1995
Medium Growth
2005
2015
2025
Low Growth
2035
Energy Intensity
0.8
 Energy Intensity
improvement rate
1.5%
toe/thousand $
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
High Growth
Medium Growth
Low Growth
Low efficiency
Carbon Emissions
1200
 Under BAU, Carbon
Emissions rise 360%
 Rise can be 470% for
high growth case
1000
Million Tons
From 1995-2035
800
600
400
200
0
1995
2005
High Growth
2015
2025
Medium Growth
2035
Low Growth
Carbon Intensity
 Carbon Intensity
Improvement rate
1.8 %
tons of carbon/ thousand $
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
High Growth
Medium Growth
Low Growth
Low efficiency
Implications of Mitigation Targets
Coal to Gas Switch
Coal Demand
Gas Demand
12
16
10
Exajoule
s
Exajoules
20
12
8
8
6
4
4
2
0
1995
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
2025
Reference
1 BT (5%)
2 BT (10%)
3 BT (15%)
4 BT (20%)
5 BT (25%)
2035
How Carbon Mitigation affects
Production Cost?
STEEL
250
350
300
200
Cost of Steel Production
Cost of Aluminum Production
ALUMINUM
150
100
50
250
200
150
100
50
0
2015
2035
0
2015
2035
1 BT (5%)
3 BT (15%)
5 BT (25%)