Transcript Document

Climate Policy Modeling:
Some Insights for India
Presentation by
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
COP 8 Side-event (October 25 - 15:00 to 17:00 hours)
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling of Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
IIM Ahmedabad
Integrated Framework for Climate Change
IIM Ahmedabad
AIM Model System
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions at
country and local level
A set of ecosystem
models, including a
vegetation dynamics
model, a water
resource model, an
agricultural
productivity model
and a health impact
model
AIM/Bottom-up
A bottom-up technology
& land use model for
Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Material
AIM Family
Environmental
Environburden
mental
Environmental
Burden
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer
Environment Fund
Wastes
Recycle
A environmenteconomy integrated
model with material
balance and recycling
process modules
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
Environmental
Burden
Environmental Industry
(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment
Technology needs
Research on new technologies
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Land use
Water resource
Crop
Productivity
Socio-economic
indicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model
AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project
future socioeconomic
trends and
environmental
change for all
42 countries
Future
economic trend
Future
environmental
trend
Korea
China
India
Thailand
Japan
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Model System for India’s Emissions Policy Analysis
Models
Top-down Models
Bottom-up Models
Local Models
•AIM/Material
•SGM
•GEMA
•ERB
•AIM/Trend
•ANSWER – MARKAL
•Stochastic MARKAL
•Demand Projection
•AIM/End-use
•Power Sector LP
•AIM/Emissions
•GIS
•Inventory Assessment
•Health Impact
Assessment Model
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Soft-linked Models Framework
Top - Down
Models
AIM/Material
Consolidation
GEMA
Productivity
SGM
Global
Energy
Prices
ERB
AIM/Trend
Regional
projections
Bottom
- Up Models
Power
Sector LP
Prices,
GDP
ANSWER
MARKAL
End -use
Demand
Demand
Projection
Sector
Demand
AIM/E
Technology Share
Energy
Balances
Stochastic
MARKAL
Emissions
Scenarios
Technology
Specifi cations
Local
AIM/Local
nd - use
Models
Local Emissions
Future Projections
GIS Model
Invent o ry
Assessment
Health
Impact
A ssessment
Model
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Insights from
Integrated Climate
Change Assessment
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Few Key Questions for Emissions Policies
• What is the cost-effective emissions pathways to achieve a
specific “GHG concentration stabilization” level?
• What will be the future trends of emissions and intensities?
• How the local and GHG emissions control policies linked?
• What is mitigation supply curve for India?
• How can regional cooperation help in climate change issues?
• What would be the implications of stabilization regime, e.g.
550 ppmv, on India’s energy system during the century
• Is it worth to fund supply-side push of clean technologies like
solar PV for GHG mitigation?
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The Framework Convention On Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Objective:
...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. (p.5)
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Emissions and Concentrations
16
800
IS92a
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350
14
12
750
700
IS92a
650
10
600
ppmv
8
6
550
500
4
450
2
2290
2265
2240
2215
2190
2165
2140
2115
2090
2065
2040
2015
2290
2265
2240
2215
2190
2165
2140
2115
2090
300
2065
-2
2040
350
2015
0
1990
400
1990
PgC/yr
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350
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Energy and Carbon Emissions for India:
AIM/ENDUSE Model
Energy Consumption
Carbon Emissions
800
50
Renewables
Nuclear
Biomass
30
Hydro
Gas
20
Oil
600
400
200
10
0
1995
Carbon (MT)
Exa Joules
40
Coal
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
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Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP
(History and Projections for Reference Scenario)
20
18
Energy
Carbon
Electricity
GDP
16
14
12
10
Past Trends
8
6
4
Future Projections
2
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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GDP intensities of Energy, Electricity and Carbon
(Reference Scenario)
1.8
1.6
1.4
Electricity
1.2
Carbon
Energy
1
0.8
0.6
Past Trends
Future Projections
0.4
0.2
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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SO2 Emission
AIM/Emission Model
2000
2030
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.01-0.017
0.017-0.026
0.026-0.035
0.035-0.044
0.044-0.053
0.053-0.060
> 0.060
< 0.20
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GHG versus Local Emissions in India
Carbon Emissions
SO2 Emissions
800
7
Million Tonnes
Carbon (MT)
6
600
400
5
4
3
2
200
1
0
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
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Carbon Mitigation Supply Curve
(2005-2035)
60
6 billion tons of
mitigation below
$25/ ton of carbon
Cost ($/Ton of Carbon)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Carbon abatement (billion ton)
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Carbon Mitigation
(under different Post-Kyoto Scenarios)
(in Million Ton)
Scenario
Kyoto Period Medium Term
2000-2012
2000-2030
Long Term
2000-2100
750 ppmv
138 (3%)
743 (5%)
11334 (11%)
650 ppmv
301 (7%)
1555 (11%)
23666 (23%)
550 ppmv
449 (10%)
2503 (17%)
33284 (32%)
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Indian Energy System Transformation
Under 550 ppmv Stabilization
Base Case Energy System
Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case
140
120
Exajoules
100
80
60
40
20
550 ppmv
0
1990
2005
Oil
2020
Gas
Coal
2035
2050
Biomass
Hydro
2065
Solar
2080
2095
Nuclear
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Technological Change in India to
Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv
Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation
2000
1600
1200
80
0
550 PPMV
40
0
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Regional Energy Market Development
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Impact of Regional Energy Market
Developments in South-Asia
Emissions Reduction (2015)
10.5
Reduction (%)
9.0
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
Carbon
Year
SOX
Grid Integration
Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation
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Advanced Technology: Competitive Paradox
Solar PV Penetration
Carbon Mitigation
40
30%
35
25%
30
20%
25
20
15%
Hi-Solar
15
10%
10
Med-Solar + $25 Tax
5
$25 Tax
5%
Base
0
1990
0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
High Solar
$25 Tax
Med Sol+ $25 Tax
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Conclusions
• There is no “silver bullet” for mitigation or adaptation
• Local and global emissions mitigation policies are disjointed
• Regional cooperation can reduce the climate mitigation and impacts
costs significantly
• Strong mitigation regime, e.g. 550 ppmv, can alter the regional energy
system significantly
• Global cost-effectiveness requires substantial mitigation (and
adaptation) in developing countries
• Supply-push of few clean technologies is inadequate for mitigation
• Climate Change impacts is complicated due to “winners and losers”
rather than absolute impacts burden
• Integrated policy assessment is vital for linking climate change and
sustainable development
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