Transcript the potential of geothermal energy

THE POTENTIAL OF GEOTHERMAL
ENERGY
A ONCE AND FUTURE FOCUS
OF
THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC GEOLOGY
THE POTENTIAL OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Summary
 An underestimated and largely untapped resource
 Not Geographically limited, as hydrothermal sites are
 Less costly than solar or wind, in ¢ per KWhr
 Largest return on investment of R&D Dollars
 Renewable, small footprint, negligible emissions
 BEG’s skills in reservoir characterization, flow
modeling and carbon sequestration are directly
applicable to geothermal energy assessment and
development.
Bruce L. Cutright
THE POTENTIAL OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
• Bureau of Economic Geology
lead earlier studies during the
late 1970s, 1980s and up to
1992 investigating the
Geothermal Energy potential of
the Northern Gulf of Mexico
Bebout, Loucks, Gregory 1978
Bruce L. Cutright
THE POTENTIAL OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
What Changed from 1980 to
Today?
 Advances in Drilling Technology
that made 8 to 10km holes
possible (polycrystalline
diamond compact bits, slimhole
drilling)
 Advances in controlled fracture
development that made
“Engineered Geothermal
Systems” practical
 Advances in Binary-Cycle Heat
Exchange Systems that made
100o C heat sources and up
economical.
Bruce L. Cutright
• Leveraging the Past to Define the Future
The basics:
Geology
Stratigraphy
Structural geology; fractures, stress fields
Fluid flow
Heat flow
Reservoir Characterization
Yield, Thermal Characteristics, Future Predictions
Reservoir Management, Restoration and Maintenance
Economics.
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
Bruce L. Cutright
THE POTENTIAL OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
•
Critical Re-assessment:
DOE - MIT (2006) Study Found:

THE EXTRACTABLE RESOURCE
BASE IS ESTIMATED AT 2,000
TIMES THE ANNUAL PRIMARY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF
THE UNITED STATES IN 2005.

OVER HALF OF THIS ENERGY IS
IN GEOPRESSURED ZONES IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO
Bruce L. Cutright
Sediment Thickness Map of US
THE POTENTIAL OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Table 1.1 Estimated U. S. Geothermal Resource Base to 10km Depth by Category
(Modified from "The Future of Geothermal Energy, MIT 2006)
Category of Resource
Thermal Energy,
in ExaJoules
(1EJ = 1018 J)
Thermal Energy in Barrels of Oil
Equivalent
Hydrothermal
2.40E+03
9.60E+03
4.13E+11
1.65E+12
Co-Produced Fluids
9.44E-02
4.51E-01
1.62E+07
7.76E+07
Geopressured Systems
7.10E+04
1.70E+05
1.22E+13
2.92E+13
US Primary Energy Consumption
(2008)
94.14
1.81E+10
COMPARISON OF FOSSIL FUEL EXTRACTABLE RESERVES TO
GEOTHERMAL GEOPRESSURED/CO-PRODUCED FLUIDS EQUIVALENT ENERGY RESERVES
Source
Estimate of Extractable Reserves
Reference
Canadian Tar Sands
300 BBLSOE
Edwards, 1997
Orinoco Heavy Oils
267 BBLSOE
Edwards, 1997
Green River Shales
139 BBLSOE
Edwards, 1997
U. S. Proven Reserves of Crude Oil
21.3 BBLSOE
EIA 2008
Geothermal Geopressured
Geothermal Resources
29,200 BBLSOE
Blackwell, 2006
Bruce L. Cutright
THE POTENTIAL OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Upper and Lower Cost Range of Energy for Alternative Energy Sources, Expressed
in Cents per KWhr
Comparison of the costs
per kilowatt hour to
generate electricity from
alternative/renewable
sources versus
hydrocarbon sources
140.0
120.0
Photovoltaics
100.0
Cents per KWh
Concentrating Solar
80.0
Wind
60.0
Geothermal
40.0
20.0
Costs, in Cents per KWhr, for Power Generation from Hydrocarbon Sources
0.0
1975
4
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
3.5
Oil
Cents per Kwhr
3
Geothermal is cost competitive
with oil and natural gas and is
less expensive than solar and
wind. Only coal, without carbon
tax costs, is less expensive
than geothermal
Natural Gas
2.5
Composite Hydrocarbon
2
1.5
1
Coal
0.5
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Year
Bruce L. Cutright
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Data from NREL in constant 2005 dollars
2010
What Our Partners are doing
• Chevron is the largest
producer of geothermal energy
in the world, with operations in
Indonesia and the Philippines.
• US energy companies Unocal
and Gulf Resources are willing
to invest US$1.2 billion in
geothermal and natural gas
projects in the Philippines
Source: Chevron Geothermal
Bruce L. Cutright
What are our Industrial Partners Seeing?
The Classical, but limited, hydrothermal/magmatic resource
•
The world-leading geothermal
energy company Reykjavik
Energy (Orkuveita
Reykjavikur) has established
US$800 million in capital to
invest in new geothermal
projects
But these projects are hydrothermal sites
that are limited in geographic extent.
Bruce L. Cutright
What Our Partners are doing
Binary Cycle Rankine Engine
• Raser Technologies Hatch
Geothermal Power Plant
• constructed in just six months
• Modular power plant design.
• Can produce power from
geothermal resources that
were previously thought to be
not hot enough for commercial
power production.
Bruce L. Cutright
What the Business is doing
Five Year Stock Price Trends
ORA = Ormat Technologies (geothermal)
XOM = ExxonMobil
CVX = Chevron
BP = British Petroleum
Bruce L. Cutright
Why Geothermal?
Why Now?
 The Economics have changed
 geothermal is now cost-competitive with petroleum, and
lower cost than solar and wind.
 The Resource Base has changed
 no longer only hydrothermal-magmatic but widely
distributed geothermal heat flow
 The extractable resource is 2000 times the annual demand
of the US.
 The regulations have, or will change
 Favoring non-CO2 emitting energy sources
Bruce L. Cutright
Sponsored Research Opportunities
 Geothermal Energy – Sponsored Opportunities
 The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: $350 million new
investment in this technology.
• Geothermal Demonstration Projects = $140 Million
• Enhanced Geothermal Systems Technology Research and
Development = $80 Million
• Innovative Exploration Techniques = $100 Million.
• National Geothermal Data System, Resource Assessment, and
Classification System = $30 Million
 Private funding opportunities for BEG, at this time, equal or
exceed the federal or state opportunities.
Bruce L. Cutright
The Bureau’s Immediate Opportunities
$11.6 Million over 3 years
•
Technology Interface System, $3.6 Million over 2 years
• Towards Field Testing of CO2 as Operating Fluid for
EGS, $4.9 Million over 2 years
• Geothermal Energy from Coproduced Fluids, $452,791
for 1 yr. (potential for $MM over 5 years)
• Geothermal Energy From Geopressured Resources
$361,191 for 1 yr. (potential for $MM over 5 yr)
• Geothermal Data Development, Collection and
Maintenance, $2.28 Million over 3 years
Bruce L. Cutright
The Bureau’s Long Range Opportunities
• Everything we have learned about petroleum reservoir
characterization, development and production is
applicable to Geopressured / Geothermal Development
3-D Geo-Model
Streamline Modeling
of Fluid Allocation Factors
Streamline Fluid
Allocation Factors
Source: BEG and I-Reservoir, Inc.
Bruce L. Cutright
Where is the Cutting Edge?
 Primary Focus is on Geopressured Zones having
Thermal-Kinetic-Chemical Energy Content
 Combining geothermal heat extraction using supercritical
carbon dioxide
 Links geologic sequestration of CO2 with non-polluting,
renewable energy production
 Results in improvement of heat extraction efficiency by 40% to
180% (Pruess, K. 2006)
 Provides a methodology for coal fired power plants to recover
the energy penalty incurred in CO2 capture
 Metal – Organic heat carriers (MOHC) offer
additional improvements in efficiency, at a cost.
Bruce L. Cutright
Cooper Basin
Thank you
Flow tests at Cooper Basin EGS Site, Australia (Geodynamics, 2005)
Bruce L. Cutright