Transcript Emissions Inventory for India

AIM\ENDUSE Model
with Application for India
P.R. Shukla
AIM/ENDUSE
Model Structure
Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Structure
AIM/emission model
feedback
Change demands
Tech. changes
New technologies
Econ. Instruments
Adaptation
Scenarios
detection
and
reduction of
vulnerability
Country model
Land-use
Energy end-use
Global consistency & ROW model
Global economic trends
Population
Economic assumptions
Resource supplies
AIM/climate model
Global GHG cycle model
Global mean climate change model
supported
Reduction
Scenarios
Global and
Regional
Assumptions
Asian-Pacific regional model
GCM
Experiments
AIM/impact model
Global to regional scale down
Regional climate impacts
Water resources
Agriculture
Forest resources, etc.
Higher order impacts on
Regional economies
Asian-Pacific
Social,Economic
and
Environmental
GIS
Structure of the AIM/End-Use Model
Energy
Energy Technology
- Oil
- Coal
- Gas
- Solar
- (Electricity)
Energy Consumption
CO2 Emissions
Energy Database
- Energy type
- Energy price
- Energy constraints
- CO2 emission factor
Energy Service
- Boiler
- Power generation
- Blast furnace
- Air conditioner
- Automobile
- Heating
- Lighting
- Steel products
- Cooling
- Transportation
Technology
Service Demand
Technology Database
- Technology price
- Energy consumption
- Service supplied
- Share
- Lifetime
Socio-economic Scenario
- Population Growth
- Economic Growth
- Industrial Structure
- Employees
- Lifestyle
AIM/ Emission Model Linkages
Socio-Economic Scenarios
Population
Resource Base
GDP
AIM/Emission-Linkage
Feedback
Endo Use
Energy
Efficiency
GDP
Population
Energy
Service
Demand
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Change
End Use
Technology
Efficiency
Lifestyle
Bottom-up Model
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Technology
Change
Resource
Base
Exploitation
Technology
Energy
Resource
Energy Price
Final
Energy
Demand
Food
Consumption
Pattern
Final
Energy
Supply
End Use
Technology
Energy-Economic Model
Industrial
Process
Change
GDP
Population
Goods &
Service
Demand
Primary
Energy
Supply
Biomass
Energy
Energy
Conversion Demand
Technology
Efficiency
Energy
Conversion
Technology
GHGs Emissions
AIM/ Climate Model
AIM/ Impact Model
Industrial
Production
Other
Inputs
Goods &
Service
Supply
Goods and
Service Price
Land Input
Cropland
Pasture
Forest
Biomass Farm
Other Land
Land Equilibrium Model
Sectors and sub sectors
Sectors
Sub sector
Industrial
Iron and Steel, Cement, Petrochemical,
Pulp and Paper, Miscellaneous
Residential
Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply,
Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc.
Commercial
Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply,
Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc.
Transportation
Passenger Transport, Freight
Transport
Energy
Conversion
City Gas Production, Oil Refining,
Electric Power Generation
Purchased coke
Limestone
Iron ore
Coal
Purchased
electricity
Terminal
Terminal
Hot
coke
Smelting
reduction
furnace
Sinter
Hot
metal
Molten
steel
Slabs,
blooms,
billets
Hot rolled
steel products
Terminal
ZSS
Coke oven
Coke
quenching
equipment
Heat
Sintering
machine
Coke
oven gas
Terminal
Coke
Power device
Terminal
Utility
Blast
furnace
Heat
Basic
oxygen
furnace
Caster
Reheating
furnace
Blast furnace
gas
Terminal
Basic oxygen
furnace gas
Power device
Reheating
furnace
Annealing
furnace
Cold rolled
steel products
Independent
power plant
Hot rolled
steel products
Electricity
Legend
: final service
: service device
: external energy
: internal
energy/service
Electric arc
furnace
Scrap
flow of external energy
flow of electricity
and related goods
flow of other internal energy/service
An example of sub-model structure
(Japanese iron-steel industry)
flow of heat
Table Technologies used in the steel industry
Process
Technology
Without Coke Adjustment Equipment
Coke
Adjustment Coke Wet Adjustment Equipment
Conventional Coke Oven
Coke
Next Generation Coke Oven
Production
Coke
Coke Wet Type Quenching
Quenching
Coke Dry Type Quenching
Blast Furnace
Without Top Pressure Recovery Turbine
Wet Top Pressure Recovery Turbines
Dry Top Pressure Recovery Turbines
Molten Steel
Production
Basic oxygen Furnace
Electric Arc Furnace
Direct Iron Ore Smelting Reduction Furnace
AIM/ENDUSE
Model Application
for India
Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model
Indian Economy
End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)
Industry
Transport
Agriculture
Residential
Commercial
Steel
Cement
Chlor-Alkali
Textiles
Aluminum
Sugar
Paper
Brick
Fertilizer
Others
Urban
Rural
GDP
35000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
30000
Billion Rs.
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
GVA Shares (Reference scenario)
80
70
Shares(%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995
2000
Industry
Transport
PFCE
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Commercial
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Sectoral and Technological Detail in Indian
AIM\ENDUSE
Sector
Subsector
Industry
Steel
Technl
32
Aluminum
Sector
Subsector Technl
Transport
25
Residential
10
Urban
Rural
Cement
12
Brick
7
Paper
21
Caustic Soda
11
Soda Ash
14
25
21
Commercial
9
Agriculture
14
Total
246
Reference Energy System for Transport
Gasoline
2-W
Road PKMS
3-W
Heavy Oil
4-W
Bus
Diesel
CNG
Road TKMS
HCV
LCV
Rail PKMS
Diesel Train
Electricity
Electric Train
Coal
Rail TKMS
Steam Train
Passenger Aircraft
Air PKMS
ATF
Ship
Wate r TKMS
Transport Technology Options
ROAD Vehicles
RAIL Vehicles
PASSENGERGOODS
2-Wheeler
Heavy Truck (Diesel)
Steam Loco
3-Wheeler
Light Truck (Diesel)
Diesel Loco
Petrol Car
Heavy Truck (CNG)
Electric Loco
Diesel Car
Light Truck (CNG)
CNG Car
Share of Transport in Service Sector
18
Percent
15
12
9
6
3
1970
1973 1976
1979 1982
1985 1988
1991 1994
Growth of Traffic in India
Passenger (Billion PKms)
Goods (Billion TKms)
2500
2000
800
Road
Rail
Air
600
Road
Rail
1500
400
1000
200
500
0
0
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
Road Transport Demand: Projections
Passenger
8000
6000
3000
2500
2000
1500
4000
2000
Billion TKms
10000
3500
Billion PKms
12000
Goods
1000
Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 %
500
Annual Growth Rate = 5.1%
0
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035 1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
203
Transport Demand Projections
Air Transport
Rail Goods Transport
3500
70
3000
60
2500
Billion TKms
Billion PKms
80
50
40
30
2000
1500
1000
20
10
0
1995
Annual Growth Rate = 4.2 %
2005
2015
Year
2025
500
0
1995
2035
Annual Growth Rate =4.9%
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
Energy Consumption in Road and Rail Transport
Road Transport
200
Rail Transport
800
Coal
Gasoline
CNG
120
80
Million Tonnes
600
400
200
40
0
1995
Peta Calories
HSD
160
HSD Electricity
2005
2015
Year
2025
0
2035 1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
Carbon Emissions from Transport Sector
200
Million Tonnes
160
Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 %
120
80
40
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
Energy and Carbon Intensities in Transport Sector
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
0.28
Ton Carbon / '000 Rs.
Mega Joule / Rs. (1990 prices)
14
13
12
11
10
1995
0.26
0.24
0.22
0.2
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
Energy Consumption by Transport Modes
Energy Consumption in Brick Kilns
400
Coal
Biomass
300
200
100
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
1995
Peta Joules
500
Technology Mix in Brick Production
140
120
100
80
High Draught
VSBK
Clamps (Biomass)
Bull trend Kiln 2
Bull trend Kiln 1
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Giga Joule / '000 bricks
Energy Intensity of Brick Kilns
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Ton Carbon /'000 bricks
Carbon Intensity of Bricks
0.076
0.068
0.06
0.052
0.044
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Sectoral Primary Energy Consumption
50000
Industry
Commercial
Transport
Peta Joules
40000
30000
Residential
Agriculture
Power
20000
10000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Sectoral Electricity Consumption
1600
TWh
1200
Industry
Residential
Agriculture
Transport
Commercial
800
400
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Carbon Emissions by Fuels
Energy intensity of GDP
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Carbon Intensity of GDP
28
23
18
13
8
3
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)
7
Power sector
Industry
Total
6
Emissions
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
NOX Emissions (Million Tons)
10
Power sector
Transport
Total
Emissions
8
6
4
2
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Carbon Emissions
2010
1995
5%
3%
0%
45%
35%
1%
33%
2%
14%
2%
0%
44%
18%
0%
47%
28%
2035
1%
22%
RESIDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
AGRICULTURE
POWER SECTOR