Transcript Document

Modelling Sector Demands
P.R. Shukla
Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System
Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost
Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL)
Long-Term
Demand
Projection Model
End-use
Demand
Technology Shares
End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)
Industry
Transport
Agriculture
Residential
Commercial
Steel
Cement
Chlor-Alkali
Textiles
Aluminum
Sugar
Paper
Brick
Fertilizer
Others
Urban
Rural
Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model
Indian Economy
End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)
Industry
Transport
Agriculture
Residential
Commercial
Steel
Cement
Chlor-Alkali
Textiles
Aluminum
Sugar
Paper
Brick
Fertilizer
Others
Urban
Rural
AIM/ENDUSE Model for India: Demand Projections
GDP
FCE
Industry
GVA
Transport
GVA
Passenger
GVA
Rail Road Air
Electricity
PJ
Steel Aluminum
mt
mt
Commercial
GVA
Freight
GVA
Irrigation
PJ
Agriculture
GVA
Tilling
PJ
Kerosene
PJ
Cement Brick
mt
no.
HSD
PJ
Paper
mt
Threshing
PJ
Urban Hh
PFCE
Rail Road Water
LPG
PJ
PFCE
Fuelwood
PJ
Lighting
lumen hrs
Textile Sugar Chlor-Alkali
metre
mt
mt
Cooking
PJ
Rural Hh
PFCE
Appliances
No./ PJ
Fertilizer
mt
Oth. Ind.
GVA
Electricity Coal HSD Fuel-Oil
mt
mt
mt
mt
Sectoral Demand Projection:
Logistic Regression
Yt = Y0 exp(a + bt)
1+exp(a + bt)
Demand Projection for Steel
120
In ((Yt / Yo)/(1- Yt / Yo)) = a + bt
t
= time period
Yt = level of demand at time t
Y0 = asymptotic limit for the
demand Yt
a,b : Parameters to be estimated
Steel (million ton)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1975
1995
2015
2035
2055
GVA Charts
GDP
35000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
30000
Billion Rs.
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Industry GVA
12000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
10000
Billion Rs.
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Transport GVA
1800
1600
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
1400
Billion Rs.
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Commercial GVA
14000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
12000
Billion Rs.
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Agriculture GVA
6000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
5000
Billion Rs.
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
PFCE
25000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
Billion Rs.
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Steel Process Figure
Purchased coke (COK)
Iron ore (YIR)
Limestone (CEK)
Coke Oven
Hot coke
Smelting
reduction
furnace
Coal (COL)
Purchased
Electricity (ELI)
Terminal
Coke oven
gas
Terminal
Sintering
Machine
Sinter
Terminal
Terminal
Utility
Blast
furnace
Hot metal
Basic Oxygen
furnace gas
Terminal
Electric
arc
furnace
Caster
Slabs,
blooms,
billets
Hot rolled
steel products
Independent
Power Plant
Basic Oxygen
furnace /OH
Molten
steel
ZSS
Blast
furnace
gas
Terminal
Reheating
furnace
Heat
Power
device
Electricity
Reheating
furnace
Annealing
furnace
DRI
Sp. Iron
Scrap
Nat. Gas
(NGA)
Cold rolled
steel prod.
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Hot rolled
steel prod.
Steel Demand Projection
140
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
120
Million Tons
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Aluminum Demand Projection
6
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
5
Million Tons
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Cement Process Figure
Lime Stone
Clay
Coal
Fuel Oil
Electricity
Grinding
Raw meal
Kiln
Clinker
Cement
Packing
Cement
Indi an Institute of Manage ment, Ahme dabad
Cement Demand Projection
400
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
350
Million Tons
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Paper Process Figure
Hard Wood
Agri. residue
Caustic Soda
Electricity
Mechanical
pulp
Coal
Chemical
pulp
Bleaching
of pulp
Stock
preparation
Paper
Machine
Finished
Products
Indi an Institute of Manage ment, Ahme dabad
Waste Paper
Utility
Hydro
pulp
Paper Demand Projection
25
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
Million Tons
20
15
10
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Brick Process Figure
Coal
Bull Trench Kiln
Biomass
VSBK
High Draught Kiln
Bricks
Indi an Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Clamps
Brick Demand Projection
400
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
350
Billion No.'s
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Fertilizer Demand Projection
80
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
70
Million Tons
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Caustic Soda Process Figure
Salt
Electricity
Coal
Utility
Brine Preparation
&
Purification
Brine Electrolysis
Evaporation
&
Salt Preparation
Caustic
Soda
Indi an Institute of Manage ment, Ahme dabad
Caustic Soda Demand Projection
7
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
6
Million Tons
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Soda Ash Demand Projection
7
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
6
Million Tons
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
Sugar Demand Projection
70
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
60
Million Tons
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Textile Demand Projection
120
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
100
Million mts.
80
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Transport Technology Options
ROAD Vehicles
RAIL Vehicles
PASSENGERGOODS
2-Wheeler
Heavy Truck (Diesel)
Steam Loco
3-Wheeler
Light Truck (Diesel)
Diesel Loco
Petrol Car
Heavy Truck (CNG)
Electric Loco
Diesel Car
Light Truck (CNG)
CNG Car
Reference Energy System for Transport
Gasoline
2-W
Road PKMS
3-W
Heavy Oil
4-W
Bus
Diesel
CNG
Road TKMS
HCV
LCV
Rail PKMS
Diesel Train
Electricity
Electric Train
Coal
Rail TKMS
Steam Train
Passenger Aircraft
Air PKMS
ATF
Ship
Water TKMS
Growth of Traffic in India
Passenger (Billion PKms)
Goods (Billion TKms)
12000
10000
4500
Road
Rail
3600
Air
8000
Road
Rail
2700
6000
1800
4000
900
2000
0
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
0
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Road Freight Demand Projections
4500
4000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
Billion TKMS
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Road Passenger Demand Projections
12000
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
Billion PKMS
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Air Passenger Transport Demand Projections
140
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
120
Billion PKMS
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Ship Freight Transport Demand Projections
60
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
Billion TKMS
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Rail Passenger Transport Demand Projections
1600
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
1400
Billion PKMS
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Rail Freight Transport Demand Projections
1400
Low Growth
Medium
High Growth
1200
Billion TKMS
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035