Transcript THE ASIAN OIL PROBLEM: Regional Cooperation in ASEAN

THE ASIAN OIL PROBLEM:
Regional Cooperation in ASEAN
By
Guillermo R. Balce
ASEAN Centre for Energy
Jakarta, Indonesia 2001
Introduction
To analyse the oil situation in Asia and unravel the
underlying problems, Southeast Asia must be treated as
a distinct entity from Northeast Asia and South Asia.
This is dictated by at least two major reasons:
Geography and the Association of South East Asian
Nations (ASEAN).
This presentation provides a brief view of the oil
industry situation in the ASEAN region, as follows:
Oil Industry Structure
Supply – Demand
Crude Oil Trade Flows and Chokepoints
Petroleum Reserves
ASEAN Cooperation
Oil Industry Structure of the
ASEAN Countries
DOMINANT
SECTOR
ACTIVITY AREA
COUNTRY
Regulation
Upstream
Downstream
BOGA
BSP & Private
BSP
CNPA
Contractors
Importers,
Retailers
INDONESIA
Pertamina
Pertamina / Contractors / Operators
LAO PDR
MTT
None
MALAYSIA
Petronas
Petronas / Contractors / Operators
MYANMAR
MOGE
MOGE/Contractors
Gov’t Enterprises
PNOC / Private
Deregulated 1998
BRUNEI D.
CAMBODIA
PHILIPPINES DOE
Gov’t
Private
MTT
SINGAPORE
EMA
None
Deregulated
THAILAND
PTT
PTT / Contractors
Deregulated 1991
VIETNAM
PetroVietnam
PetroVietnam /
Contractors
Gov’t Companies
BOGA: Brunei Oil & Gas Authority; BSP: Brunei Shell Petroleum; CNPA: Cambodia National Petroleum Authority; MTT: Ministry of
Trade and Tourism; MOGE: Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise; DOE: Department of Energy; PNOC: Philippine National Oil Company;
EMA: Energy Market Authority; PTT: Petroleum Authority of Thailand.
Oil Supply - Demand
ASEAN Crude Oil Production (in KTOE)
COUNTRY
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
CAMBODIA
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
MALAYSIA
MYANMAR
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
VIETNAM
ASEAN
Source: ACE 2001
Note : * (1st semester only)
1995
1998
2000
8,680.00
0.00
76,741.00
0.00
35,090.00
0.00
97.00
0.00
2,550.00
7,880.00
7,801.17
0.00
68,372.56
0.00
35,784.00
549.00
25.44
0.00
3,618.00
N.A.
9,597.68
0.00
*27,777.01
0.00
*14,260.00
544.00
46.10
0.00
4,891.00
N.A.
131,038.00
116,150.17
++57,115.79
Oil Supply - Demand
Petroleum Product Consumption of the ASEAN
Countries (in KTOE)
COUNTRY
1995
1998
2000
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
449.00
548.88
900.18
CAMBODIA
431.00
525.20
974.00
37,132.32
42,517.04
*22,624.02
378.00
607.00
N.A.
MALAYSIA
18,986.00
20,883.40
*8,279.00
MYANMAR
1,322.00
548.88
638.65
12,437.00
19,766.18
13,145.10
4,726.00
N.A.
N.A
32,476.00
22,853.44
27,048.36
5,278.00
5,806.00
N.A.
113,615.32
114,056.02
++ 73,609.31
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
VIETNAM
ASEAN
Source: ACE 2001
Note : * (1st semester only)
Oil Supply - Demand
ASEAN Refinery Outputs (in KTOE)
COUNTRY
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
1995
1998
2000
528.00
888.84
539.75
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
34,051.71
44,509.20
N.R.
N.R.
MALAYSIA
16,686.00
16,732.40
MYANMAR
926.00
888.84
821.29
15,303.00
* 16,144.00
14,858.30
* 46,629.00
* 47,694.00
N.A.
22,211.00
32,707.89
33,700.26
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
136,334.71
159,565.17
++86,825.91
CAMBODIA
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
VIETNAM
ASEAN
Source: ACE 2001; *IEA – Oil Information 2000;
Note : N.R. – No Refineries; 1 (1st semester only)
1
26,354.31
N.R.
1
10,552.00
Current Oil Security Situation:
Self Sufficiency
COUNTRY
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
CAMBODIA
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
MALAYSIA
MYANMAR
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
VIETNAM
Source: ACE 2001
Note : * (1st semester only)
SELF SUFFICIENCY
(CRUDE OIL PROD. / TOTAL PETRO. CONSUMPTION)
1995
1998
2000
19.330
14.210
10.660
0.000
0.000
0.000
2.070
1.610
*1.230
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.850
1.710
*1.720
0.000
0.000
0.850
0.010
0.060
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.080
0.160
0.180
1.490
N.A.
N.A.
Life Expectancy of Reserves
196.00
RESERVE LIFE
Reserve/Production or
*Consumption
(Years)
25
0.00
0
1,372.00
20
0.00
0
MALAYSIA
478.80
13
MYANMAR
28.00
51
PHILIPPINES
39.90
*3
0.00
0
21.84
6
364.00
46
2500.54
* 22
COUNTRY
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
CAMBODIA
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
VIETNAM
ASEAN
Source: ACE 2001
OIL RESERVE
(MTOE)
Crude Oil Trade Flows &
Chokepoints
Petroleum Reserves
ASEAN*
17.861
Source: BP Statistical Review 2001
* ACE 2001
Petroleum Reserves
MYANMAR
VIETNAM
LAO PDR
Oil
Gas
Oil : Gas : -
: 2.6 BBl
: 25 TCF
Oil : 0.20 BBl
Gas : 12.07 TCF
PHILIPPINES
Oil : 0.285 BBl
Gas : 4.6 TCF
Oil : Gas : -
THAILAND
Oil : 0.156 BBl
Gas : 12.2 TCF
CAMBODIA
BRUNEI
Oil : 1.4 BBl
Gas : 13.8 TCF
SINGAPORE
Oil : Gas : -
MALAYSIA
Oil : 3.42 BBl
Gas : 84.4 TCF
INDONESIA
Legend
Oil field/s
Gas/condensate field/s
Oil/gas field/s
Oil : 9.8 BBl
Gas : 166 TCF
Petroleum Reserves
COUNTRY
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
OIL
(Billion Barrel)
GAS
(Trillion Cubic Feet)
1.400
13.800
-
-
9.800
166.000
-
-
MALAYSIA
3.420
84.400
MYANMAR
0.200
12.070
PHILIPPINES
0.285
4.600
-
-
THAILAND
0.156
12.200
VIETNAM
2.600
25.000
17.861
318.070
CAMBODIA
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
SINGAPORE
TOTAL
Source: ESSPA Report 2001; BP Statistical Report 2001.
ASEAN Energy Cooperation
Energy Security : The driving force
2000
GLOBAL OIL
CRISIS
1995
1990
1985
1980
Gulf War (1990)
Iran – Iraq Tanker War
(1981-1988)
2nd Oil Shock (1979)
1975
1st Oil Shock (1973)
1970
ASEAN ENERGY COOPERATION
E
N
E
R
G
Y
S
E
C
U
R
I
T
Y
ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (1999-2004)
Establishment of ACE (1999)
Hanoi Plan of Action
ASEAN Vision 2020 (1999)
ASEAN Program of Action on Energy Cooperation (19951999)
ASEAN Energy Amendment (1995); AEMEC to AMEM
Priority for ASEAN Power Grid, APSA and TAGP (1994)
Thai-Indo Coal Coop. (1990)
AEEMTRC creation (1988)
Phil – Indo Coal Coop. (1987
ASEAN Energy Cooperation Agreement (1986)
ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA, 1986)
2000
1995
1990
1985
ASEAN Emergency Petroleum Sharing Scheme
Supplementary to ASCOPE’s (1983)
1st Meeting of HAPUA (1981)
Indonesia & Malaysia assisted other ASEAN Countries on
oil needs / 1st AEMEC (1980)
ASCOPE’s Emergency Petroleum sharing scheme (1977)
ASCOPE creation (1976)
ASEAN Establishment (1967)
ASCOPE: ASEAN Council on Petroleum ; AEEMTRC: ASEAN-EU Energy Management Training and Research Centre;
TAGP: Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline; AMEM: ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting
1980
1975
1970
The ASEAN Energy Sector
ASEAN HEADS OF
STATE/GOVERNMENT
OTHER
MINISTERIAL
MEETINGS
AM M
AS C
SOM
AMMST
OTHER
MINISTERIAL
MEETINGS
AM E M
COST
ASEAN
CENTRE
FOR
ENERGY
(ACE)
LEGEND:
AEBF: ASEAN Energy Business Forum
AEM: ASEAN Economic Ministers
AFOC: ASEAN Forum on Coal
AMEM: ASEAN Ministers of Energy Meeting
AMM: ASEAN Ministerial Meeting
AMMST: ASEAN Ministerial Meeting
on Science & Technology
ASC: ASEAN Standing Committee
ASCOPE: ASEAN Council on Petroleum
COST: Committee on Science & Technology
EE&C SSN: Energy Efficiency and
Conservation Subsectoral Network
HAPUA: Heads of ASEAN Power
Utilities/Authorities
NRSE SSN: New & Renewable Sources of
Energy Subsectoral Network
SCNCER: Sub-Committee on Non-Conventional
Energy Research
S G: Secretary General
SOM: Senior Officials Meeting
SOME: Senior Officials Meeting on Energy
AE M
ASEAN
SG
SCNCER
NRSE
SSN
ASEAN
SECRETARIAT
EE & C
SSN
SOME
HAPUA
ASCOPE
AEBF
AFOC
Energy Cooperation in General
ASEAN VISION 2020
“Interconnecting arrangements in the field of
energy … for electricity, natural gas … within
ASEAN through the ASEAN Power Grid and a
Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline.”
Declared by the ASEAN Heads of State / Government at
the 2nd ASEAN Informal Summit in Kuala Lumpur,
14 – 16 December 1997
ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy
Cooperation 1999-2004
PROGRAMME AREAS
ASEAN Power Grid
Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline
Coal
Energy Efficiency and Conservation
New and Renewable Sources of Energy
Regional Energy Outlook, Energy Policy
and Environmental Analysis
TAGP Master Plan 2001
ASEAN Power Grid
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
15
Peninsular Malaysia – Singapore
Thailand – Peninsular Malaysia
Sarawak – Peninsular Malaysia
Sumatra – Peninsular Malaysia
Batam – Bintan – Singapore
Sarawak – West Kalimantan
Philippines – Sabah
Sarawak – Sabah – Brunei
Thailand – Lao PDR
Lao PDR – Cambodia
Thailand – Myanmar
Vietnam – Cambodia
Lao PDR – Vietnam
Thailand – Cambodia
Sabah – East Kalimantan
Other ASEAN Cooperation
Schemes Related to Oil
• ASEAN Petroleum Sharing Agreement (APSA, 1986)
• Common Effective Preferential Tariff Scheme for the ASEAN
Free Trade Area (AFTA, 1992)
• Agreement for the Facilitation of Search of Ships in
Distress and Rescue of Survivors of Ship Accidents (1975)
• ASEAN Framework Agreement on Multimodal Transport
(2001)
• The remaining transport-related Protocols for the ASEAN
Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in
Transit (2001)
• ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of InterState Transport (2001).
Conclusions
• Southeast Asia has strategic chokepoints for major Middle East oil
destinations.
• The oil industries in five of the ten ASEAN Countries have dominant
government roles. But, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are on the road
to deregulation and privatisation.
• Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are net oil
exporters. Myanmar may also follow. However, ASEAN as a whole is
likely to become net oil importer in 22 years.
• The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) ensures unified
actions on issues of energy and economic security.
• The main elements of ASEAN Energy Cooperation are:
–
Specialized bodies on various fields of energy, with ASCOPE and ACE in the forefront of
cooperation in petroleum.
–
ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation guided by ASEAN Vision 2020 of a TransASEAN Gas Pipeline and an ASEAN Power Grid.
–
ASEAN Petroleum Sharing Agreement (APSA)
–
ASEAN Free Trade Area Scheme (AFTA)
THANK YOU
Crude Oil Import and Export (in KTOE)
COUNTRY
IMPORT
1995
1998
EXPORT
2000
1995
1998
2000
BRUNEI D.
0.00
0.00
0.00
8,319.00
7,509.00
9,415.00
CAMBODIA
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
9,301.00
10,519.00
*5,066.00
42,344.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
MALAYSIA
1,315.00
2,014.00
3,973.00
19,833.00
18,640.00
*8,503.00
MYANMAR
536.00
650.00
657.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
PHILIPPINES
16,005.00
16.00
15,215.00
92.00
0.00
0.00
SINGAPORE
54,785.00
N.A.
N.A.
65.00
N.A.
N.A.
THAILAND
22,840.00
33,924.00
39,169.00
716.00
1,031.00
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
7,839.00
N.A.
N.A.
47,123.00 +64,080.00
79,208.00
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
VIETNAM
ASEAN
104,782.00
Source: ACE 2001
Note : * (1st semester only)
35,178.00 *13,313.00
62,358.00 +31,231.00
Import & Export of Petroleum Products
(in KTOE)
COUNTRY
IMPORT
1995
1998
EXPORT
2000
1995
1998
2000
BRUNEI D.
7.00
51.47
28.42
0.00
0.84
0.00
CAMBODIA
* 525.00
* 675.00
N.A.
0.00
0.00
0.00
22,075.09
24,745.81
16,769.95
49,260.06
43,144.09
14,134.80
0.28
* 607.00
N.A.
0.00
0.00
0.00
MALAYSIA
9,411.00
9,359.50
13,113.00
7,428.00
7,193.80
14,378.00
MYANMAR
201.00
767.35
884.68
10.00
0.00
0.00
2,054.00
2,122.16
3,269.49
1,496.00
* 889.00
1,731.16
27,199.00 *33,873.00
N.A.
66,667.00 *45,654.00
N.A.
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
9,190.00
1,266.19
1,182.88
453.00
4,213.81
4,859.27
VIETNAM
5,094.00
* 6,518.00
N.A.
0.00
0.00
0.00
ASEAN
75,756.37
79,985.48 ++15,248.42
Source: IEA – Oil Information 2000; *ACE – ESSPA 2001
Note : 1 (1st semester only)
125,314.05 101,095.54 ++15,103.23