Transcript OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE & RELEVANT INFORMATION: EXECUTIVE BRIEFING (CINC BRIEF)

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OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE &
RELEVANT INFORMATION:
EXECUTIVE BRIEFING
(CINC BRIEF)
Robert D. Steele, OSS CEO
<[email protected]>
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What’s on the other side of the hill?
All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to
find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing
what was at the other side of the hill”.
Duke of Wellington
quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)
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FOUR CORE IDEAS:
A-C Teams need OSINT in real-time.
IC is not in the OSINT business.
CINCs have to program for OSINT.
OSINT can make a difference in
tactical effectiveness, operational
planning, and acquisition management.
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OSINT DEFINITIONS
Open Source Data
Open Source Information
Only the
in-house
analyst
can do
this.
Open Source Intelligence
Validated Open Source Intelligence
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BURUNDI EXERCISE: 6 Phone Calls
Top Ten Journalists/Top Ten Academics
Tribal Orders of Battle and AOs
Pol-Mil Overviews
Soviet 1:100,000 Combat Charts
100% Commercial Imagery <3 Years Old
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COMPETING OSINT MODELS
Validated
OSINT
SI/TK
SI/TK
Selective Importation
Just Enough, Just in Time
System High/Firewall
Default to Validated OSINT
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NEW INTELLIGENCE GAP
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F
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M
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I
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Available
Information
Actionable
Intelligence
The New
Intelligence
Gap: the
difference
between what
you can
know and
what you can
use!
TIME
OSINT is as complex as the other disciplines…
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FOUR THREAT/IO TYPES
SOLIC/LEA
UNCONVENTIONAL
LOW INTENSITY
CONFLICT AND GANG
WARFARE
HIC/MRC
STRATEGIC NUCLEAR
AND CONVENTIONAL
MILITARY WAR
INFOWAR/
ECONOMIC
ESPIONAGE
IW/ECON
INFORMATION WAR/
CRIME & ECONOMIC
ESPIONAGE
PROLIFERATION/
MIGRATION
JIHAD/
GREENPEACE
TERRORISM/
GLOBAL CRIME
MINDWAR
RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL
AND ENVIRONMENTAL
REFUGEES
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THOUGHTFUL OPINIONS
“The Intelligence Community has to get used to the fact
that it no longer controls most of the information.”
The Honorable Richard Kerr, former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
“…(IC) should not satisfy requests for analysis when
such analysis could be readily accomplished using publicly
available sources…
Aspin-Brown Comission on Intelligence, page 17
You’re on your own!
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OSINT SUPPORT TO THE A TEAM
Strategic
Planning
• History
• Context
Operational
Coordination
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
Tactical
Employment
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
Acquisition
Design
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
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OSINT AND THE CINC TODAY
IC limited in global coverage capability.
Fewer closed societies and denied areas.
IT revolution empowering operators.
OSINT can address 80% of mission area
information requirements.
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PACOM’S Virtual
Information Center
Remote
Sensing
NGOs
IOs
UN
Business
Community
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R
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F
U
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I
O
N
Predictive
Modeling
A
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S
I
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Embassy
Host &
Adjacent
Govts
JTF
Internet
J-8’s
Idea!
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LONG-TERM BUILDING BLOCKS
Policy Intelligence
Law
Enforcement
Intelligence
Coalition
Intelligence
Military
Intelligence
Business Intelligence/OSINT
Mass & Niche Media Intelligence
Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”
Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education
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Peacekeeping Intelligence
• “… the concept of UN
intelligence promises to turn
traditional principles on their
heads. Intelligence will have to
be based on information that
is collected primarily by overt
means, that is by methods
that do not threaten the target
state or group and do not
compromise the integrity or
impartiality of the UN.”
Hugh Smith as cited by
Sir David Ramsbotham
Balanced Coverage
PoliticalLegal
NaturalGeographic
SocioEconomic
IdeoCultural
TechnoDemographic
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Decision-Maker
Integration, Reflection & Decision
Information Management Staff
Collection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation
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M
EXISTING
INPUT
normal staff
process,
counterparts,
family/friends
OPEN
SOURCE
INPUT
Internet &
private sector
fee-for-service
INFORMATION UNIVERSE
Relevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret
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T
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REQUIREMENTS OFFICER/
COLLECTION MANAGER
INTERNET
SPECIALIST
PRIMARY RESEARCH
SPECIALIST
COMMERCIAL
ONLINE SPECIALIST
EXTERNAL SERVICES
SPECIALIST
Leverage!!!
EDITOR/ANALYST
PRESENTATION MANAGER
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GENERIC OSINT BUDGET
Crisis/Surge Support
Commercial Imagery
JOINT VISION
UN/NATO OSINT Network
Joint, CINC, Service Cells
DoD OSINT Training
DoD Internet Seeding
Embassy OSINT
OSINT Outsourcing
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OSINT: THE CINC’S WILD CARD
Earmarked funding not available yet.
OSINT ConOps still lacking.
Robust private sector options are there.
CINC can leverage C4ISR JBC, JROC.