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A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson

The Future of Intelligence:

Not Federal, Not Secret, Not Expensive

Robert David Steele Fall 2004

® THE ONLY THING THAT WORKED RIGHT ON 9-11 WAS INFORMED CITIZENS COUNTER-ATTACKING ON THEIR OWN.

9-11: Systemic Failure

Conclusion First

• Local cops are key to spotting/neutralizing terrorism at home • Local observation & collection is one-half to two-third of the preventive policing answer—bottom-up intelligence • Community Intelligence Centers, $30M per state per year at FOC, are the hub of the “seven tribe” wheel • Open Source Agency, $1.5B at FOC, is the one “transformative” tool we can deploy right now • Done right, we can redirect $30B/Year from secret collection to state & local & regional intelligence, and $200B/Year from a largely useless heavy metal military to “soft power” capabilities.

• It’s not going to happen until Governors & Mayors raise hell.

• Now, in the second term with a majority on the Hill, is our time.

Seven Intelligence Tribes:

The Way Ahead

National Religions & Clans Military NGO & Media Law Enforcement Business Academic

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ®

State of the Tribes Today

Objective National Military Business Academic NGO-Media Religious

• National • Military 50% 40% • Business • Academic • Religious 30% 30% • Law Enforcement 20% • NGO-Media 20% 20%

We have much to do.

Bottom-Up and Peer-to-Peer

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL OLD SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE SECRET SOURCES & METHODS TIME IMPACT SHORT OBSCURE DETAIL TIME IMPACT LONG OBVIOUS DETAIL OPEN SOURCES & METHODS MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES PEOPLE DECIDE NEW BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

Future is NOT Federal

TODAY (Per Year)

• $50B/Federal

TOMORROW (Per Year)

• $5B/International • $5B/Regional • $20B/Federal • $5B/State • $5B/Local • $10B/Non-State Actors

Bottom Line: All levels of government have major role to play.

Future is NOT Secret

• $50B for secrets, $250M for open sources, yet open sources answer 40% of the need.

• Imagine $5B for open sources displacing $30B for secrets, the balance then available for distribution.

• From terrorism to proliferation to illegal immigration to disease, 90% of what we need to know is not secret—we simply have to pay attention 24/7 in 29+ languages.

• We also have to share easily, without baloney.

Future is NOT Expensive

• Leadership is free—you just do it.

• Sharing is free—you just do it.

• Thinking is free—you just do it.

• Keys to victory are: – Bottom-up police empowerment – Seven tribes harnessed at every level – Nail Congress now, before Christmas

“Shockingly Dysfunctional”

• IC: $50B a year in waste & mismanagement • Collect 10% of what we need to know • Lose 80% of that in processing failures • Analysts young, isolated from reality • Management guilty of “bureaucratic treason” • Political process extremely corrupt • Public interest has been betrayed

History of Failure

• 1947 Flawed by design—Pentagon opposed • 1949 CIA, State, Pentagon fighting daily • 1955 CI & Language bad, OSINT bad • 1961 Failures in planning, coordination • 1971 Grotesquely expensive, duplicative • 1976 DCI needs budget power, OSINT bad • 1992 DCI needs budget power, OSINT bad

Collection Failure

Breakdown in Coverage and Language Access

English Language Digital Analog NRO Oral/Unpublished Foreign Languages* NSA FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.

Processing Failure

Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

50%

Less Costly Does Not Exist

OSINT HUMINT STATE MASINT IMINT SIGINT

50%

Analysis Failure

Breakdown in Thinking & Mindset

• Analysts end up with 2% of the relevant data • Analysts have no historical, cultural, or religious context • Analysts can safely be ignored because their findings are secret • Managers are weak

Leadership Failure

• From Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney defeating intelligence reform in 1992, to a series of DCI’s refusing the implement the Aspin-Brown recommendations of 1996, our last fifteen years are marked by leadership that focuses more on protecting their budgets than protecting the Nation.

• Current IC leadership continues to resist

Shit Flows Home…

23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Global Threats to Local Survival

Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Food Security 33 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries

State of the World Atlas

(1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Military Cannot Defend USA

• $500K = $500B cost • $1 = $1M cost to us • Terrorists can keep this up forever – Exploding ships – Exploding tunnels – Exploding buildings – 50 caliber bullets into • Power generators • Pipelines

**Four Different Threats to America:**

Require Four Different Security Approaches

PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING

HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR)

GUERRILLA WAR MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

LOW TECH BRUTES (GANGS)

ECONOMIC WAR

POWER BASE

NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING TERRORISM CYBER STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING

HIGH TECH SEERS (HOME)

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY CULTURAL WAR

LOW TECH SEERS (POOR)

IDEO STEALTH, MASS TARGETING

25% 15% ®

Taxpayer Dollars Focused on 10% of the Threat

10% State vs State State vs Nation 50% Inter-Ethnic Tribal Gang Wars, Genocide, Decolonization

New Strategy: 1 + iii:

Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities

1

CINCWAR Strategic NBC Big War(s) Reserve

i

CINCSOLIC Small Wars Constabulary Ground Truth Reserve

i

CINCPEACE State/USIA Peace Corps Economic Aid Environment Reserve

i

CINCHOME Intelligence Border Patrol Port Security Electronic Public Health

50% 250B vs. 500B 15% 20% 15% 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 36B

New Craft of Intelligence

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc

Narrowly focused!

I Lessons of History II Global Coverage Cost-Sharing with Others- Shared Early Warning IV Spies & Secrecy III National Intelligence Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

Leveraging Best Practices:

The Generic & The Esoteric

Generic to All Tribes • • • Open Source Collection • Multi-media processing • Analytic toolkits • Analytic tradecraft • Operations security • Defensive counterintelligence

Leadership skills Training & culture skills

Unique to Some Tribes • National clandestine & covert collection, offensive CI • Military targeting, mobility • Police arrest & interrogation • Business fiscal accountability • Media attention-getting skills • NGO humanitarian values • Religious faith-based insights • Ethnic blood-based insights

Localizing Intelligence:

Transfer resources & process

• Community Intelligence Centers • Community Information Commons • Community Open Decision Networks • Digital Marshall Plan to every corner of globe – Empowers local population with global access – Makes local information digital at least cost – Converts “neighborhood watch” into global watch

Globalizing Intelligence:

A Geneva Convention for Information

• International convention on open source software and transparent stable Application Program Interfaces (API) • XML Geo is fundamental--every datum in every medium, every language, every device • ISO standards for

generic

intelligence collection, analysis, counterintelligence, covert action • ISO standards for data security & privacy that empower software and marginalize hardware

Local Hubs & World Brain:

Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams

Expert Forum

Shared Calendar Shared Rolodex

Distance Learning OPG VPN Virtual Library

Shared 24/7 Plot

Weekly Review

Virtual Budget

Focus of Global Effort

Top Secret Tribal Secret Partial Sharing Shared Among Tribes Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost

U.S. Intelligence Reform

Can’t Have Smart Spies in a Dumb Nation

• • • • • XML Geo and XML Security Standards • National Analysis Agency (CIA Re-Focus) • National Processing Agency (NSA Re-Focus) • National Collection Agency (NRO Re-Focus)

New New New New

Clandestine Service Agency Homeland Counterintelligence Agency Community Intelligence Centers (Each State/City) Open Source Agency ($1.5B/Yr)

Based on Appendix A of Steve Emerson,

AMERICAN JIHAD::The Terrorists Living Among Us

(Free Press, 2003), at Amazon.com. Created 8 Feb 03 by Robert David Steele, posted at www.oss.net.