Transcript Steele on Intelligence What can we know, how? Reflections

Steele on Intelligence
What can we know, how?
Reflections on the near future.
Robert David Steele Vivas
MALAS in St. Louis
5 November 2005
A copy of these slides are at www.oss.net.
World War III Players
NationStates
Private
Sector
Bacteria
Citizens
Gangs
Mother Earth
Water-Air-Green
You May Not Be Interested in Reality,
But Reality is Interested in You
Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time,
and space. Information can create stabilizing indigenous
wealth.
Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs
destroy this option.
Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent
Plan for the Briefing
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Two hours done in twenty minutes
Slides posted so you can reflect more later
5 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker)
5 minutes on sources in context
5 minutes on emerging technologies
5 minutes of ethics and morality
State of the Art
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Will blow through these
It’s not about separate sources anymore
It’s not about human reading anymore
It’s about integrating everything:
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Collecting relevant offline information
Machine-aided collation & exploitation
Connecting experts and their students
Presenting the information is a compelling way
OVERVIEW
Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest
FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360
Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest
FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATION
See specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention
FOCUS ON A PERSON
Photos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details
GET NEW INSIGHTS
This is the only global information that integrates sources with tools
READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXT
Anything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied
Silobreaker is the Next Google
• This costs $400 a year at full price.
• Offered at $200 until the end of the year.
• Test it free for seven days by following the
link at www.oss.net.
• This has been my secret weapon for years,
now we are commoditizing it and moving
on to more complex challenges—creating a
World Brain.
Sources
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All information, all languages, all the time
Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy
185 languages, 33 of them “core”
12 relevant dialects of Arabic
Must follow television, radio, audio, street
80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC
Cannot be made sense of by single individual
Global Intelligence Failure
Breakdown in Collection and Understanding
Digital
English
Language
Oral/Unpublished
NRO
NSA
Foreign
Languages*
Analog
FBIS
UN/STATE
CIA/DO
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
Global Processing Failure
Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
More Satisfying
50%
0%
Less Costly
Does Not Exist
OSINT
HUMINT
STATE
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
50%
Seven Views of Reality
Not sharing, not listening, costs us.
Religions
& Clans
National
NGO &
Media
Military
Academic
Law Enforcement
Business
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
Historical
Memory
3
2
1 Present
You Are
Here...
Near
Future
Far
Future
# = Your Top Issues,
Local, National, Global
New Craft of Intelligence
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Narrowly focused!
I
IV
Lessons of History
Spies & Secrecy
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III
Global Coverage
National Intelligence
Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning
Harness distributed
intelligence of Nation
Technologies
• Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access
• XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data
smart—the context is in the content
• IBM just linked DB2 with Google
Enterprise—when we add CISCO AON and
CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally
distributed instantly exploitable World Brain
• Foreign language man-machine networks and
distributed advanced analytics will add value
• Gaming, not reports, will rule
Five Technical Trends
• Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including
streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware
receipt of relevant intelligence
• Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put
industrial era spies and aggregators out of business—CIA,
Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead
• Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug
Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at
the paragraph level
• Synthetic information breaks the copyright chains—can still
pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic
knowledge that is original
• Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for
safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.
Ethics & Morality
• Secrecy is pathological—secrets can be
ignored and manipulated—witness Iraq
• Secrecy displaces dialog—cult of secrecy
• Secrecy enables corruption & treason—not
just by governments but by corporations
(Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals),
and religions (Catholic Church)
• Secrecy undermines social understanding of
reality and allows rich to steal from the poor
A Revolution is Underway
Peer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible
TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
OLD
SINGLE-CULTURE
SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS
DECIDE
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
OBSCURE DETAIL
TIME
IMPACT
SHORT
TIME
IMPACT
LONG
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OPEN
SOURCES & METHODS
PEOPLE
DECIDE
MULTI-CULTURAL &
TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
NEW
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity
• World War III will be fought in the hearts and
minds of teen-agers
• Half the brain—the half that can understand
“other” views—dies by the age of 35
• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and
35—that’s when the brain matures
• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a
belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural
and religious paths chosen by others over the
course of centuries.
Reality Won’t Go Away
• End of cheap oil cascades across everything
• End of free water is actually a bigger threat
• Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease
could rebalance populations
• Rise of crime and corruption reflects the
failure of all governments, including USA, to
adapt to fast-changing real world issues
• Collection popular intelligence is in a race for
life, a race that will determine our future.
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By
Changing When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can
change public policy
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More Prevention
More Peacekeeping
More Education
More Long-Term Aid
Less Corruption
Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.
Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible
Spread the Word
Robert David Steele Vivas
CEO, OSS.Net, Inc.
Coach, Global Intelligence
Partnership (20
companies & rising)
[email protected]
703.242.1700
Will speak for sushi.
Use MoveOn.Org OSINT
topic to organize
everywhere in the world