Transcript Cast of Players

®
Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….
The New Craft of Intelligence:
Personal, Public, & Political
Robert David Steele
<[email protected]>
®
Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000
Internal Political &
Ethnic Violence Goes
Through the Roof
180
160
140
120
100
80
LIC Business is Good
60
40
20
HIC Levels Off
0
1995
1996
1997
High-Intensity Conflict
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with
permission © 2000 A. Jongman
1998
1999
2000
Low-Intensity Conflict
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
Internal War
2
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Conflict Facts for 2000
26 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with
permission © 2000 A. Jongman
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
3
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Ethnic Fault Lines 2000
43 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
4
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Water & War
Hyper-Arid
1
3
4
Arid
5
Semi-Arid
6
Sub-Humid
Water
Pollution
2
Source: The State of the World
Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Collateral Specifics for 2000
Complex Emergencies
29 Countries
Peacekeeping Forces
18 UN, 20 Other
Refugees/Displaced
67 Countries
Landmines
62 Countries
Food Security
27 Countries
Torture Common
94 Countries
Modern Plagues*
59 Countries & Rising
Corruption Common
78 Countries
Child Soldiers
42 Countries
Censorship Very High
63 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997),
all others from PIOOM Map
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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15%
10%
State vs State
State vs Nation
25%
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
50%
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Gang Wars, Genocide,
Decolonization
7
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1. Break-Out
2. Black Death
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3. Barricade (Good or Bad)
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Four Threat Types
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
HIGH TECH
PRECISION
BRUTES
TARGETING
(MIC / HIC)
ECONOMIC
WAR
HIGH TECH
CYBER STEALTH,
DATABASE
GUERRILLA
WAR
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
SEERS
(C3I WAR)
CULTURAL
WAR
TARGETING
NATURAL
LOW TECH
STEALTH,
BRUTES
RANDOM
(LIC)
TARGETING
TERRORISM
LOW TECH
SEERS
IDEO -
(JIHAD)
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Means - Ends Disconnect
350
300
250
200
Military
Diplomacy
Home Front
150
100
50
0
USA
Allies
Russia
China
Rogues
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Presidential Trade-Offs
$100 million will buy:
1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or
1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or
10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or
1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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New Strategy: 1 + iii
1
i
i
i
CINCWAR
CINCSOLIC
CINCPEACE
CINCHOME
Strategic NBC
Small Wars
State/USIA
Home Guard
Big War(s)
Constabulary
Peace Corps
Border Patrol
Reserve
Ground Truth
Economic Aid
Port Security
Reserve
Reserve
Electronic
Minutemen
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Bloom on Biology of Intelligence
• When conformity enforcers
silence diversity generators
the group is committing mass
suicide
• Language and culture kill
half our brain cells
• Internal processing more vital
than external collection
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Saul on Pathology of Reason
• Secrecy is pathological,
undermines public confidence
• Intelligence is about
disseminated knowledge, not
about secrets
• Western thinking has been
corrupted by its focus on
industrial processes in
isolation from culture.
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Wilson on Unity of Knowledge
• All knowledge is related
and interactive--science
without the humanities is
mis-guided dangerous
science
• Knowledge and education
must be universally
distributed within the
public, not held back by
selected policymakers
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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McKibben on Missing Information
• Information is not a substitute
for “being there”
• Television killed history-media only acknowledges
reality for which film exists
(last 40 years vice 4000)
• One day of human observation
is vastly more valuable than
one day of electronic noise.
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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McKenna on Real-Time
• Forget about trying to
predict or impose a future
• Instead, cast a very wide net
of intimate probes for early
warning of what your
clients need
• Then be able to collect,
process, and deliver in realtime, over and over again
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
17
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Davenport & Beck on Attention
• 1) Global Coverage for
AWARENESS
• 2) Surge target-local
focus for ATTENTION
• 3) Domestic political
focus for ACTION
• 10 seconds for scanning,
3 minutes for attention:
new standard for products
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Wheaton on Warning
• Warning solution includes
– Casting wide early net
– Surging on potential hotspots
– Getting senior’s attention
• Options decrease as conflict
escalates--seniors need to
focus on crisis prevention
rather than crisis
management
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Pelton on Ground Truth
• Most government and
media sources have not
actually had eyes on target
and boots in the local mud
• You don’t have to travel to
these places to have them
affect home front security
• We simply are not grasping
essential ground truths
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Shawcross on Endless Conflict
• Peace operations are as
complex and difficult as
war operations
• Humanitarian assistance
can create black markets
and sustain a conflict
• Good will without strength
makes things worse
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Current Doctrine
Information Superiority
Information Grid
C2 Warfare
Information Operations
Information Warfare
Surveillance
Relevant Information
ISR
C4ISR
Reconnaissance
Intelligence
Computers
Information System
Communications
Command and Control
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
Control
C4I
C4
C3
C2
Command
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Decision-Maker
Integration, Reflection & Decision
1
Information Management Staff
Collection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation
R
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N
D
O
M
EXISTING
INPUT
normal staff
process,
counterparts,
family/friends
2
OPEN
SOURCE
INPUT
Internet &
private sector
fee-for-service
INFORMATION UNIVERSE
Relevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret
S
E
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T
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ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
IMINT
HUMINT
SIGINT
MASINT
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Real-World Information
Digital
English
Language
Oral/Unpublished
NRO
NSA
Foreign
Languages*
Analog
FBIS
UN/STATE
CIA/DO
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
*27 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Competing Security Models
Validated
OSINT
SI/TK
SI/TK
Selective Importation
Just Enough, Just in Time
System High/Firewall
Default to Validated OSINT
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Minimal Mandatory Languages
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•
•
Arabic
Catelan
Chinese
Danish
Dari
Dutch
English
Farsi
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Finnish
French
German
Indonesian
Irish
Italian
Japanese
Korean
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Kurdish
Kurmanji
Norwegian
Pashto
Polish
Portuguese
Russian
Serbian
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Spanish
Swedish
Tamil
Turkish
Urdu
etc
etc
etc
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TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
OLD
SINGLE-CULTURE
SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
BIG CHANGE
NUMBER ONE
LEADERS
DECIDE
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
OBSCURE DETAIL
TIME
IMPACT
SHORT
TIME
IMPACT
LONG
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OPEN
SOURCES & METHODS
PEOPLE
DECIDE
MULTI-CULTURAL &
TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
NEW
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
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BIG CHANGE
NUMBER TWO
I
N
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M
A
T
I
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N
Available
Information
Actionable
Intelligence
The New
Intelligence
Gap: the
difference
between what
you can know
and what you
can use!
TIME
Open source information is more complex than secrets…
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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“A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Waste….”
Dan Quayle, Future DCI
2%
Real-World
Information
Dead Brain
48%
50%
Starved Brain
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Pieces Not Coming Together
Policy Intelligence
International
Law
Enforcement
Intelligence
Coalition
Intelligence
Military
Intelligence
Coalition
Options
Business Intelligence/OSINT
Mass & Niche Media Intelligence
Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”
Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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New Craft of Intelligence
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Narrowly focused!
I
IV
Lessons of History
Spies & Secrecy
II
III
Global Coverage
National Intelligence
Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning
Harness distributed
intelligence of Nation
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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ROI of 3N for a $1B Bridge to OSINT
Intelligence
Community
Government Knowledge
National Distributed Knowledge
Global Distributed Knowledge
1B 10B
100B
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
1 TRILLION
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Striking A New Balance
TECHNICAL $$
TS
LIFERS
HUMINT $$
MID-CAREER
HIRES
SECRET
OSINT $$
1-179 DAY/YR
TEMPORARY EXPERTS
IC MANNING
IC DOLLARS
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
UNCLASSIFIED
IC PRODUCTION
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Feedback Loop
Internet Stream
Q
Commercial Feeds
DIRECT
ACCESS
TOOLKIT
MEDIATED
ACCESS
TOOLKIT
A
Maps & Images
Offline Stream
Human Experts
“Temp Hire” Approach:
World Class/One Day Only
PRODUCTION
TOOLKIT
PROCESSING
TOOLKIT
INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS
Call
Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Finished Intelligence and Reporting
Revision Tracking
and Realtime Group
Review
Desktop
Publishing and
Word Processing
A
Collaborative
Work
B
C
Interactive Search
and Retrieval of
Data
Clustering and
Linking of
Related Data
Conversion of
Paper Documents
to Digital Form
Production of
Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Structured
Argument
Analysis
Notetaking and
Organizing Ideas
Graphic and MapBased Visualization
of Data
Statistical Analysis
to Reveal
Anomalies
Automated
Foreign Language
Translation
Modeling and
Simulations
Detection of
Changing Trends
Processing Images,
Video, Audio,
Signal Data
Automated Extraction
of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
Open Literature
Non-Text Data
Detection of Alert
Situations
Standardizing
and Converting
Data Formats
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Restricted Information
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ICMAP + NSA(P) = IC2
The Processing Advantage
More Satisfying
50%
0%
Less Costly
OSINT
HUMINT
STATE
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
50%
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Expert Forum
Shared
Calendar
Distance
Learning
Shared
Rolodex
OPG
VPN
Shared
24/7 Plot
Virtual
Library
Virtual
Budget
Weekly Review
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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New Rules of the Game I
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Informing Policy, not Collecting Secrets
Global Coverage beats Hard Targets
Translation in 28+ Languages Gets Serious
Two Levels Down (Sub-State Intelligence)
Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental
Processing beats Collection for Dollars
Geospatial and Time Tagging Mandatory
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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New Rules of the Game II
•
•
•
•
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•
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Global OSINT Benchmarking Finally Done
Counterintelligence Across the Board
Cross-Fertilization (Human & Technical)
Decentralized Data Base (NGO, Private)
Value = Content + Context + Speed
Gap-Driven Collection instead of Priorities
Needs-Driven Production vice Capabilities
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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New Rules of the Game III
•
•
•
•
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•
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Strategic Intelligence Matters More
Budget Intelligence is Mandatory
Public Intelligence Impact Public Policy
Analysts as Managers
New Measures of Merit
Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing Rules
Clearances Matter Less than Knowledge
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
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Recommendations
•
•
•
•
•
SAG Budget Analysis--cross-walk threat/$
SAG Skunkworks--integrated experiments
SAG Solutions--cost out now and future
SAG Mentors--history, outreach, memory
SAG IG--document shortfalls in collection,
processing, management, and clients
• SAG PR--publish unclassified reports
Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.
42
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Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….
The New Craft of Intelligence:
Personal, Public, & Political
Robert David Steele
<[email protected]>