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Searching for Bin Laden: The Use of Intelligence in the War on Terror or How NOT to Spend the Taxpayers’ Treasure Robert David Steele (Vivas) CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. World Affairs Council of Kentucky & Southern Indiana Global Economic Forum 14 June 2006 This Briefing is Online • This briefing is online, at: http://www.oss.net/WAC • It should also be on your website locally. • Planned words are visible in Notes format. • Other key references online include: • http://www.oss.net/BASIC • http://www.oss.net/TERMS • http://www.oss.net/IO • http://www.oss.net/REFLECTIONS We’re in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making. America is losing/has lost the moral high ground. Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime For each Al Qaeda $1, US Spends $500K. Badly. We can do this forever. Any Questions? Policy/ Threats Poverty Big Dogs Disease Brazil Ecology State War Civil War In Grand Strategy terms, Al Qaeda shrinks to zip. China India Indonesia Genocide Iran Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Russia Venezuela Wild Cards Policy/ Threats Poverty Big Dogs Disease Can't Fix Stupid! Brazil Ecology China State War India Civil War Indonesia Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime From left : Larry the Cable Guy , Bill Engvall , Jeff Foxworthy and Ron White. Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards Plan for the Brief • Focused only on National Security Budget • Initial Focus on $60B/Year Spent by IC • Then Focus on $600B/Year Spent by DoD • Review Books on Threats and Strategy • Discuss Needed Reforms in America • Conclude with Hope for the Future National Security Writ Small • Department of Defense - $600B/Year – Buys heavy metal military ill-suited to reality • Department of State – – Buys Embassy fortresses and little else • Department of Justice – – Buys heavy-handed ill-focused FBI & suits • Department of Homeland Security – – Buys ill-directed hand-outs and little security National Security Writ Large • Nurture and use all sources of power • Educated and engaged citizenry • Competent intelligence – Universal coverage (all countries & topics) – 24/7 (real time versus one-year “studies”) – All languages • • • • • Morally sound diplomacy not ideological Morally sound capitalism not predatory Balanced defense (four threat types) Coherent homeland security (engaged citizenry) Balanced budget, don’t import poverty, export jobs Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding Digital English Language Oral/Unpublished NRO NSA Foreign Languages* Analog FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *31 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination More Satisfying 50% 0% Less Costly Does Not Exist OSINT HUMINT STATE SIGINT IMINT MASINT 50% Threats vs. Sources Threat #1: Poverty Threat #2: Infectious Disease Threat #3: Environmental Degradation Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict Threat #5 Civil War Threat #6: Genocide Threat #7: Other Large-Scale Atrocities Threat #8: Nuclear, bio-chemical weapons Threat #9: Terrorism Threat #10: Transnational organized crime 95% 99% 90% 75% 80% 95% 95% 75% 80% 80% Average Importance of “OSINT” 86% Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information! ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT 95% of cost 20% of value 5% of cost 80% of value OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO ADDNI/OS View of OSINT Masint Imint Sigint Humint FI Osint Humint Sigint OSS CEO View of OSINT Imint Masint OSINT OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline. New Craft of Intelligence China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Narrowly focused! I IV Lessons of History Spies & Secrecy II III Global Coverage National Intelligence Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning Harness distributed intelligence of Nation Focus of Global Effort Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Top Secret Tribal Secret Partial Sharing Shared Among Tribes Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost Creating the World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams Expert Forum Shared Shared Calendar Rolodex Distance Learning OPG VPN Shared 24/7 Plot Virtual Library Virtual Budget Weekly Review Real vs. False Budget Source: http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm Policy-Intelligence Failure: Unbalanced Instruments of Power 350 Too much of: 300 • Military heavy metal • Secret satellites 250 200 150 Not enough of: 100 50 0 USA Allies Military Russia Diplomacy China Rogues Home Front The real budget is the real policy. Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer dollar is to be spent wisely. • • • • • Humans on ground Human expert analysis Technical processing State & local intelligence Public health, water, etc. Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton Water & War Hyper-Arid 1 3 4 Arid 5 Semi-Arid 6 Sub-Humid Water 2 Pollution Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Global Threats to Local Survival Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Food Security 33 Countries Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Corruption Common 80 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat 15% 10% State vs State State vs Nation 25% Inter-Ethnic Tribal 50% Gang Wars, Genocide, Decolonization Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Small Navy Platform or Ground Unit or 1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water or One day of war over water (or oil) $1 T/Yr Not Being Leveraged • Between interest on the debt, unnecessary military systems, unnecessary secret satellites, and a wide variety of subsidies and tax loopholes, we waste $500B/Year. • For lack of good economic intelligence and counterintelligence, and ethics at the top, we forego $500B a year in corporate tax contributions to revenue, import-export pricing and insurance fraud, and lost revenues from bandwidth and federally-controlled properties. Policy-Intelligence Failure Public is Neither Engaged Nor Informed Why This Matters Nations Inc. Bacteria Citizens Gangs World War III Players • Homeland security--”A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry.” (Thomas Jefferson) • Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture • Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiatives, the best pre-emption is moral. Pelton on Ground Truth • Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud • You don’t have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security • We simply are not grasping essential ground truths Shawcross on Endless Conflict • Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations • Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict • Good will without strength makes things worse Kaplan on Frontier of Anarchy • History, geography, and traveling third class are vital to true understanding • We are engaged in "a protracted struggle between ourselves and the demons of crime, population pressure, environmental degradation, disease, and culture conflict." Heidenrich on Genocide • 15-18 genocides going on today--scores more over time • Genocide can be forecast and can be prevented • Indifference is murder • Global force needed Klare on Resource Wars • Energy, Water, Timber, and Minerals will be at the heart of future war • Ethnic conflict and great power disconnects will compound the challenge • In this light, corporations are now belligerents and must be treated as such de Villiers on Water • It is the average person, not the corporation, that does the most damage • Pollution, dams, irrigation, and acquifer mining are all destroying our environment • We need a national and global water conservation and replenishment strategy. Helvarg on Oceans • Oceans more important than Amazon, should be protected • Western economic interests are treating oceans as private mines and private cesspools • Information available from NOAA and UN is not reaching public domain and could help citizen action Thornton on Industrialized Poison • Need new paradigm for controlling bio-chemical threats to society, one focused on probability of risk instead of permission to kill pending proven risk • “Good science” is code for value-free policy that risks citizens’ long-term health for short-term corporate profit Garrett on Globalized Disease • Health of our Nation depends on health of other nations • Insurance and doctors have helped kill public health (prevention) in favor of hospitals and antibiotics • We have created resistant forms of disease and may not be able to contain epidemics Gray on Modern Strategy • Technology is not a substitute for strategy • War is about getting your way, not about combat • Time matters--use or lose • Over time strategic culture is more important than arms or money. Brzezinski on Grand Strategy • Europe, Russia, and Eurasian “stans” are the hearth of 21st century opportunity and threat • Core new players are Turkey and Indonesia • Iran is more stable, and China less of a threat, that conventional wisdom says • Geopolitics more important than technology Kupchan on Failure of Empire • Strategic cultures resist incoming information and suffer from “adjustment failure” • Foreign internal instability merits rapid intervention with strong economic incentives • Failure to intervene early will lead to emergence of aggressors that are difficult to defeat once out of the box. Shultz et al on Complexity • “Most policymakers do not fully realize the dynamics of the world we live in.” (Graham Fuller) • History and culture are vital to security policy • Non-military operations are as important as military operations at all times Cimbala on Friction • Friction is real and is destroying our ability to match ends with means • We don’t have a strategy; we don’t try to understand the strategies of others; we do not have unity of effort across the diplomatic-defensejustice continuum Revolutions Not Technical • Concepts, not technology, are revolutionary • Best revolutions are actually incremental and simple • Technology is not a substitute for strategy • Current & planned arsenal distantly related to real needs O’Hanlon on Aid Spending • We spend half as much on aid as do most of the other developed countries • Foreign aid in its current form is not preventing conflicts • Best investment world-wide is in education of women, this cascades across issue areas Oakley on Police Peace Operations • Failed states present us with a global problem that requires an international law enforcement reserve • UN police often cannot read or drive a car and do not have doctrine • Constabulary forces are different from small war forces Bowden on Manhunts • Timing is everything--we let the thugs amass billions before we go after them • We are weak in tactical intelligence against nontraditional (e.g. individual) targets, especially in cities • It can be done--but is almost impossible to do well if host state is in chaos Warfare in the Third World • Subjective factors including pain threshhold determinant • Training absorption much more important that arms supplies • Third World combat is both unconventional and never ending… Third World War • Spreading insecurity is directly related to protracted conflict among societal groups • Incompetent interventions make matters much worse • Violence can be predicted • Once begun, the violent will not listen to reason... Clark on Modern War • White House does not listen to early warning • Army doesn’t do mountains, tries not to use Apaches etc. • Air Force doesn’t do strategic mobility, needs 24 hours to redirect TACAIR • Technology loses to weather, lacks intelligence Smart Holistic Strategy • End state must be legitimate governments everywhere • Ultimate investment is educational, both at home and abroad • Must do inter-agency holistic planning, apply all the instruments of national power all the time The Tunnels of Cu Chi • Never underestimate the enemy Home Front Weaknesses Public Health DATA Corruption 10 bombs in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela will drive price of oil to $200 a barrel ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire Suicide changes everything … Suicidal plague carriers…. MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas Etc. ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers 52 New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance 1 i i i CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol Reserve Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security Reserve Environment Electronic Peace Navy Public Health 45% 248B vs. 550B 20% 110B vs 20B 20% 110B vs. 20B 15% 82B vs. 36B Modern Presidential Leadership Congress President Judiciary Chief of Staff Director-General for National Policy Director-General for Global Strategy Director-General for National Intelligence Director-General for National Research Director of Classified Intelligence (DCI) Chairman, National Intelligence Council Director, Global Knowledge Foundation Modern Strategic Governance Director General Global Strategy Deputy Director Global Strategy Associate Directors • Strategic Council • Leadership Retreats • Global Reserve • Special Projects Deputy Director Response Management Associate Directors • Response Center • Public Liaison • Civilian Reserve • Non-State Actors Governance Reform • • • • • • Coalition Cabinet Balanced Open Budget Quality Education Public Health Ethics 7th Generation Issues – Water – Energy – Information/Education Electoral Reform • Voting on week-ends • League of Women Voters & Debates • Cabinet Choices in Advance & in Debates • Instant Run-Off • End Gerrymandering • End Corporate Funding Let’s Get Our Priorities Straight! First, be strong at home. Second, be “America the Good” abroad. • Third, have a strategy to empower the poor, create wealth, and sustain peace & Earth. A Strong America Through Common Sense • We must honor our values and stop supporting dictators. • We must serve the interests of the people rather than corporations. • We must have balanced national security capabilities. • We must be fiscally sound. Questions? [email protected] www.oss.net 703.266.6393 Will speak for sushi. Tell others.