Transcript The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context Matt Hourihan March 10, 2015 for the ASEE Engineering Research Council AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program.

The FY 2016 R&D
Budget: Review and
Context
Matt Hourihan
March 10, 2015
for the ASEE Engineering Research Council
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1977-2016
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$200
$180
$160
Total R&D
$140
Defense
$120
$100
$80
Nondefense
ARRA Total
$60
ARRA Defense
$40
$20
ARRA Nondefense
$0
Source: AAAS analyses of historical budget and appropriations data. Pre-1994 figures are NSF obligations data from the Federal Funds survey. FY
2016 is the President's request. R&D includes conduct and facilities. © 2015 AAAS
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Total
Federal
Industry
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Total Research
Federal Research
Industry Research
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
R&D Change by Budget Function, 2005-2015
Percent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars
52.7%
Applied Energy Programs
51.3%
Commerce (includes NIST)
19.1%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
-7.3%
NASA Budget*
Environment Agencies
-9.7%
Health (includes NIH)
-10.6%
-14.2%
Agriculture
-20.5%
Defense Activities
Transportation
-60%
-40.3%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
*NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D.
Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS
programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS
Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 Budget
Total Outlays = $4.0 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest
$283
Defense
Discretionary
$528
[Defense R&D]
$77
Other Mandatory
$670
Nondefense
Discretionary
$495
Medicaid
$351
[Nondefense R&D]
$69
Medicare
$583
Social Security
$938
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law
President's FY 2016 Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Function
percent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars
Commerce (includes NIST)
44.8%
Applied Energy Programs
23.3%
Agriculture
20.5%
Transportation
17.8%
Environment Agencies
12.6%
Defense Activities
8.1%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
5.0%
Health (includes NIH)
2.2%
Space
0.9%
-35.5%
Justice (DHS)
TOTAL
-40%
6.4%
-20%
0%
20%
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS
40%
60%
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016
budget authority in billions of dollars
Commerce, $2.1
All Other, $6.2
USDA, $2.9
Total R&D =
$145.3 billion
NSF, $6.3
NASA, $12.2
DOE, $12.5
DOD, $71.9
HHS (NIH), $31.0
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and
R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS
Major Funding Priorities








Advanced Manufacturing
Low-carbon energy
Climate research and earth observation
Agricultural R&D
Infrastructure R&D
Antibiotic Resistance*
Precision Medicine*
Discovery Science:


Life sciences and neuroscience
Advanced computing
 COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16
Agency Notes
Trends in DOD Science & Technology
 NSF: Total Budget: +5.2%
 Highest relative changes: SBE: +7.1%,
Engineering: +6.4%;
 EHR: +11.2%
 New priorities: Food/Water/Energy
Nexus; climate resilience
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$18
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
 Manufacturing: NNMI proposal revived,
again
 NIST Labs also boosted across an array
of areas
 EERE: Advanced Manufacturing office
doubled
 NSF: CEMMSS cross-agency initiative
boosted
$4
$2
$0
ARRA
Adv Tech (6.3)
Basic (6.1)
Medical research
Applied (6.2)
Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is
appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS
Agency Notes (Cont.)
 Defense S&T flat, including DARPA
 8.3% cut to basic research
DOE Office of Science Budgets
Budget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
 Energy: Large increases, again, for
renewable and efficiency technology
offices, ARPA-E
 DOE Science: +5.4%
 Advanced Computing: +14.8%
 Domestic fusion research cut 10%, ITER
flat
 Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs funding
continues (?)
 BES?
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Adv Sci Comp
Bio Env Res
High-Energy Phys
Basic Energy Sci
Fusion Energy
Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.
© 2015 AAAS
Agency Notes (Cont.)
 NIH: $1 billion program increase (+3.3%)
 Largest relative increases: Aging, NCATS
 New priorities: Antibiotic Resistance,
Precision Medicine
 BRAIN Initiative contribution increases to
$135 million
 Success rate: 19.3%
Figure 1: NIH Budget
(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
 Other agencies
 Familiar contours for NASA: gains for
technology office, Earth Science
 USDA $$$: extramural research, intramural
facilities
 Climate research @ USGS, NOAA
$0
ARRA Funding
Cancer
Heart Lung Blood
Mental Health
General Med Sci
NIAID
NIDDK
All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebolarelated fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
Looking ahead…
 Size and composition of the
discretionary budget? Can R&D stay
ahead of the curve?
 Deficits have fallen, but big-picture
fiscal challenges remain largely
unchanged
 Debt limit, entitlement growth
 Reconciliation strategy?
 3. agency notes
 R&D
 STEM
Current Estimates of R&D in the FY16 Budget
percent change from FY15, constant dollars
NOAA
NIST
Transportation
DOE Energy Programs
Agriculture
US Geological Survey
DOD Other
Veterans Affairs
National Science Foundation
DOE Science
National Institutes of Health
Environ Protection Agency
NASA
DOE Defense
DOD S&T
Homeland Security
TOTAL
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. The above adjusts for inflation, expected at 1.6 percent. AAAS | Feb. 6, 2015
Thanks!
[email protected]
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd
-budget-and-policy-program