Federal R&D Budgets in FY 2016: Context and Update Matt Hourihan June 24, 2015 for the American Society of Mechanical Engineers AAAS R&D Budget and Policy.
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Federal R&D Budgets in FY 2016: Context and Update
Matt Hourihan June 24, 2015
for the American Society of Mechanical Engineers
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Total Federal Industry
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Total Research Federal Research Industry Research
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Federal Research Funding by Discipline as a Share of GDP, 1978-2014 0.30% Life Sci 0.25% Physical Sci 0.20% Engineering 0.15% Environ Sci 0.10% Math / Comp 0.05% Social Sciences 0.00%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Source: National Science Foundation,
Federal Funds for Research and Development
series. FY 2013 and 2014 are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB. © 2015 AAAS
Federal Funds for Engineering Research, 1992 - 2012
(billions of constant 2015 dollars)
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
Source: National Science Foundation,
Federal Funds for Research and Development
series. © 2015 AAAS
Aeronautical Metallurgy & materials Electrical Astronautical Civil Chemical Mechanical
$2,500 Basic and Applied Engineering Research Funding, FY 2012
obligations in millions
$2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Other Applied Research Other Basic Research Applied Research at Universities Basic Research at Universities $0
Source: National Science Foundation,
Federal Funds for Research and Development
series. © 2015 AAAS
Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 Budget Total Outlays = $4.0 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest $283 Defense Discretionary $528 [Defense R&D] $77 Other Mandatory $670 Nondefense Discretionary $495 Medicaid $351 [Nondefense R&D] $69 Medicare $583 Social Security $938
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 BCA: Original Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority President's FY 2016 Budget BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law (Sequester Levels)
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 BCA: Original Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law (Sequester Levels) President's FY 2016 Budget Budget Conference
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Function
percent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars
Commerce (includes NIST) Applied Energy Programs Agriculture 23.3% Transportation Environment Agencies Defense Activities General Science (NSF, DOE SC) 12.6% 8.1% 20.5% 17.8% 5.0% Health (includes NIH) Space Justice (DHS) -35.5% 2.2% 0.9% TOTAL 6.4% -40% -20% 0% 20%
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS
40% 44.8% 60%
Major Funding Priorities for FY16
Advanced Manufacturing Low-carbon energy Climate research and earth observation Agricultural R&D Infrastructure R&D Antibiotic Resistance* Precision Medicine* Discovery Science: Neuroscience; Advanced computing COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6% *New for FY16
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016
budget authority in billions of dollars
Commerce, $2.1
USDA, $2.9
All Other, $6.2
NSF, $6.3
Total R&D = $145.3 billion NASA, $12.2
DOE, $12.5
DOD, $71.9
HHS (NIH), $31.0
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS
National Security
Request: DOD S&T flat, DARPA +1.9% 8.3% cut to basic research Approps: Senate refutes basic research cuts Cuts for DARPA Defense bill blocked in Senate DHS: NBAF funding completed; moderate cuts elsewhere in S&T Directorate
$18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Trends in DOD Science & Technology
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
ARRA Adv Tech (6.3) Basic (6.1) Medical research Applied (6.2)
Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS
Energy Request
Technology offices: renewed focus on efficiency, renewables, ARPA-E, smart grid, CCS Manufacturing office to double DOE Science: +5.4% Advanced Computing: +14.8% Domestic fusion research cut 15% ITER flat Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs funding continues
$2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 DOE Office of Science Budgets
Budget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
Adv Sci Comp Bio Env Res High-Energy Phys Basic Energy Sci Fusion Energy Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.
© 2015 AAAS
FY 2016 Energy Program Budgets
percent change from FY15, nominal dollars
Science Electricity Delivery Fossil Energy Nuclear Energy Efficiency and Renewables ARPA-E Request -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% House Senate Cmte
Figures include non-R&D. Inflation is 1.7 percent. © 2015 AAAS
FY 2016 Office of Science Budgets
percent change from FY15, nominal dollars
TOTAL SCIENCE Nuclear Physics High-Energy Phys Fusion Energy Bio and Environ Res Basic Energy Sci Adv Computing -50% Request
Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS
-40% -30% -20% House -10% 0% 10% Senate Cmte 20%
National Science Foundation
Total Budget: +5.2% Highest relative changes: SBE: +7.1%; Engineering: +6.4% New priority areas: Food water-energy; climate resilience Approps: Senate flat; major cuts to GEO and SBE in House
$1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 NSF Directorate Budgets in Appropriations
Budget authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
MPS GEO ENG BIO CISE SBE
Source: NSF data, the FY 2016 request, and current appropriations. GEO and CISE have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS
NASA
Total budget: +2.9% 6.1% below FY05 levels Familiar contours: Earth Science, Space Technology, Commercial Crew program boosted Cuts to Planetary Science, Astrophysics Exploration Systems Development, Aeronautics funding reduced Since FY10: Earth Sci +22.6% Planetary -9.6% Astrophys -0.7% Webb +28.1% Heliophys -2.9%
$20 $16 $12 $8 $4 $0 NASA Budget, FY 2007 - 2016
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
ARRA Exploration Systems Space Technology Science Other Space Operations Aeronautics
"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education programs. © 2015 AAAS
TOTAL SCIENCE Earth Science Planetary Science Astrophysics Heliophysics JWST
FY 2016 NASA Budgets
percent change from FY15, nominal dollars
Aeronautics Space Technology Exploration Space Operations -20% -15% -10% Request
Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS
-5% House 0% 5% 10% Senate Cmte 15% 20% 25%
Advanced Manufacturing
National Network of Manufacturing Innovation proposal revived NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas EERE AM office doubled; NSF Cyber-physical systems Approps: ‘no thanks’, it seems
Climate and Environment
NOAA Office of Research: Major (~20%) boost for climate research USGS: +14%, focus on climate resilience; NASA Earth Science boost EPA S&T moderately increased Approps: ‘no thanks’, it seems
National Institutes of Health
$1 billion increase (+3.3%) Largest relative increases: Alzheimer’s research, translational science New initiatives: Antibiotic Resistance: $100 million for NIAID $200 million for Precision Medicine Large increase for Big Data BRAIN Initiative contribution increases to $135 million Success rate: 19.3% Approps: Surprising increases?
$45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0
Figure 1
: NIH Budget (Constant 2015 dollars in billions) ARRA Funding Cancer Heart Lung Blood Mental Health General Med Sci NIAID NIDDK All Other Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014
Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI
15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% NIAID Most individual ICs fall within this band NIH Total -25% -30%
Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS
Looking ahead…
Democratic roadblocks Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?
Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Debt limit, entitlement growth
NIST, NSF and DOE Science Budgets in America COMPETES
in billions of constant 2015 dollars
$20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 COMPETES 2007 Path COMPETES 2010 Path Growth at BCA Cap Rate* House GOP COMPETES President's Request ARRA Actuals Growth to Keep Pace With GDP House Dem COMPETES
*Sequester-level. Based on agency budgets, appropriations documents, and past and proposed COMPETES legislation. © 2015 AAAS
NSF Directorate Budgets and House COMPETES
Funding in millions, constant 2015 dollars
$1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Biological Science Geoscience** Computing** Physical Science
*House proposal. **Adjusted for comparability. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS
Engineering Social Science
$2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0
DOE Budgets and House COMPETES
Funding in millions, constant 2015 dollars
Nuclear Energy ARPA-E
*House proposal. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS
Fossil Energy EERE OE