Transcript Research and Development in the FY 2010 Federal Budget

The FY 2016 R&D
Budget
Matt Hourihan
February 2015
for the AAAS Annual Meeting
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 Budget
Total Outlays = $4.0 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest
$283
Defense
Discretionary
$528
[Defense R&D]
$77
Other Mandatory
$670
Nondefense
Discretionary
$495
Medicaid
$351
[Nondefense R&D]
$69
Medicare
$583
Social Security
$938
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Base Discretionary Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Base Discretionary Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Base Discretionary Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Revised Caps/Current Law
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Base Discretionary Budget Authority
BCA: Sequester Baseline
President's Budget
BCA: Original Baseline
Revised Caps/Current Law
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016
(Current Estimate)
budget authority in billions of dollars
Commerce, $2.1
All Other, $6.3
USDA, $2.9
Total R&D =
$145.3 billion
NSF, $6.3
NASA, $12.2
DOE, $12.5
DOD, $71.9
HHS (NIH), $31.0
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and
R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS
FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Function
percent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars
44.8%
Commerce (NIST)
23.3%
Applied Energy Programs
20.5%
Agriculture
17.8%
Transportation
13.8%
Environment Agencies
8.1%
Defense Activities
5.0%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
2.2%
Health (NIH)
0.9%
Space
-35.5%
Justice (DHS)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS
40%
60%
Major Funding Priorities
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Advanced Manufacturing
Low-carbon energy
Climate research and earth observation
Agricultural R&D
Infrastructure R&D
Antibiotic Resistance*
Precision Medicine*
Discovery Science:

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Life sciences and neuroscience
Advanced computing
 COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16
National Institutes of Health
 $1 billion increase (+3.3%)
 Largest relative increases: Aging,
NCATS
 Antibiotic Resistance: $100 million
for NIAID
Figure 1: NIH Budget
(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
 $200 million for Precision Medicine
initiative
 BRAIN Initiative contribution
increases to $135 million
 Success rate: 19.3%
$10
$5
$0
ARRA Funding
Cancer
Heart Lung Blood
Mental Health
General Med Sci
NIAID
NIDDK
All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebolarelated fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
National Science Foundation
 Total Budget: +5.2%
 Highest relative changes:
 SBE: +7.1%
 Engineering: +6.4%
 EHR: +11.2%
 New priority areas:
Food/Water/Energy Nexus;
climate resilience
 Several other cross-agency
initiatives boosted
National Security
 DOD S&T, DARPA flat
 8.3% cut to basic research
Trends in DOD Science & Technology
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$18
$16
$14
 NNSA: cuts to nonproliferation
R&D, select RDT&E accounts
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
 DHS: NBAF funding completed;
moderate cuts elsewhere in S&T
Directorate
$2
$0
ARRA
Adv Tech (6.3)
Basic (6.1)
Medical research
Applied (6.2)
Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is
appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS
Energy
 Technology offices: renewed
focus on efficiency, renewables,
ARPA-E, smart grid
 Manufacturing office to double
DOE Office of Science Budgets
Budget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
 DOE Science: +5.4%
 Advanced Computing: +14.8%
$600
$400
$200
$0
 Domestic fusion research cut 10%
 ITER flat
 Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs
funding continues
Adv Sci Comp
Bio Env Res
High-Energy Phys
Basic Energy Sci
Fusion Energy
Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.
© 2015 AAAS
NASA
NASA Budget, FY 2007 - 2016
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
 Total budget: +2.9%
$20
 Familiar contours:
$16
 Earth Science, Space Technology
boosted
$12
 Exploration Systems
Development, Aeronautics
funding reduced
$8
 NASA taking over select satellite
programs from NOAA
$0
$4
ARRA
Exploration Systems
Space Technology
Science
Other
Space Operations
Aeronautics
"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education
programs. © 2015 AAAS
Agriculture
 AFRI Increased to $450 million
(+38.5%)
 ARS receives $200 million injection
for facilities
 Two “innovation institutes”:
biomanufacturing and
nanocellulosics
 $77 million total for antibiotic
resistance research
USDA R&D, FY 2000-2016
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
ARRA
Forest Service
Nat'l Inst Food Agr
Econ Res Service
Agr Res Service
Other
Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and
appropriations reports. © 2015 AAAS
Advanced Manufacturing
 National Network of Manufacturing Innovation proposal
revived
 Discretionary / mandatory mix
 NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas
 EERE: Advanced Manufacturing office doubled
 NSF: CEMMSS cross-agency initiative boosted
Climate and Environment
 NOAA Office of Research: Major (~20%) boost for climate
research
 Elsewhere at NOAA: planned decreases for GOES-R, JPSS to make
room for Polar Follow-On
 USGS: +14%, focus on climate resilience
 NASA Earth Science boost

“The 2016 Budget redefines NASA and NOAA Earth observing satellite responsibilities to leverage
NASA Earth Science’s expertise in developing Earth-observing satellites while allowing NOAA to
focus its development efforts on its weather satellites and weather forecasting mission. Under the
new framework, NOAA will be responsible only for satellite missions that contribute directly to
NOAA’s ability to issue weather and space weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and
property. NASA will be responsible for other nondefense Earth-observing satellite missions.”
 EPA S&T moderately increased
Looking ahead…
 Size and composition of the
discretionary budget? Can R&D stay
ahead of the curve?
 Deficits have fallen, but big-picture
fiscal challenges remain largely
unchanged
 Debt limit, entitlement growth
 Reconciliation strategy?
 3. agency notes
 R&D
 STEM
Current Estimates of R&D in the FY16 Budget
percent change from FY15, constant dollars
NIST
NOAA
Transportation
DOE Energy Programs
Agriculture
US Geological Survey
DOD Other
Environ Protection Agency
Veterans Affairs
National Science Foundation
DOE Science
National Institutes of Health
NASA
DOE Defense
DOD S&T
Homeland Security
TOTAL
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. The above adjusts for inflation, expected at 1.6 percent. AAAS | Feb. 6, 2015
Thanks!
[email protected]
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd
-budget-and-policy-program