Transcript The Federal Life Sciences Budget: Update and Outlook Matt Hourihan March 25, 2015 for the San Antonio Life Sciences Institute Academy Innovation Forum AAAS R&D Budget and.

The Federal Life
Sciences Budget:
Update and Outlook
Matt Hourihan
March 25, 2015
for the San Antonio Life Sciences Institute Academy
Innovation Forum
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Total
Federal
Industry
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Total Research
Federal Research
Industry Research
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Federal Research Funding by Discipline
as a Share of GDP, 1978-2014
0.30%
0.25%
Life Sci
Physical Sci
0.20%
Engineering
0.15%
Environ Sci
0.10%
Math / Comp
0.05%
Social Sciences
0.00%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2013 and 2014 are preliminary. GDP figures are
from OMB. © 2015 AAAS
University R&D as a Share of GDP by Source
0.45%
0.40%
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
Total
Federal
State and Local
Industry
Institution funds
All other
Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series, and GDP data from OMB. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS
University R&D Funding by Source
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Other Sources
Institutional Funds
Industry
State and Local
Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS
Federal
R&D Change by Budget Function, 2005-2015
Percent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars
52.7%
Applied Energy Programs
51.3%
Commerce (NIST)
19.1%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
-7.3%
NASA Budget*
Environment Agencies
-9.7%
Health (NIH)
-10.6%
-14.2%
Agriculture
-20.5%
Defense Activities
Transportation
-60%
-40.3%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
*NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D.
Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS
programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS
Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 Budget
Total Outlays = $4.0 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest
$283
Defense
Discretionary
$528
[Defense R&D]
$77
Other Mandatory
$670
Nondefense
Discretionary
$495
Medicaid
$351
[Nondefense R&D]
$69
Medicare
$583
Social Security
$938
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS
Composition of the Federal Budget
Outlays as share of total budget, 1962 - 2016
80%
70%
60%
Payments to
Individuals
50%
All Other
40%
30%
Defense (non-R&D)
20%
10%
0%
Investments
(research, edu,
infrastructure)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. "Investments" include outlays for R&D, education and training, direct nondefense
infrastructure, and other grants, primarily for transportation. "Payments to Individuals" are primarily entitlement programs like Medicare,
Medicaid, and Social Security, but also include many other public assistance programs. © 2015 AAAS
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law
President's FY 2016 Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Function
percent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars
Commerce (includes NIST)
44.8%
Applied Energy Programs
23.3%
Agriculture
20.5%
Transportation
17.8%
Environment Agencies
12.6%
Defense Activities
8.1%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
5.0%
Health (includes NIH)
2.2%
Space
0.9%
-35.5%
Justice (DHS)
TOTAL
-40%
6.4%
-20%
0%
20%
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS
40%
60%
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016
budget authority in billions of dollars
Commerce, $2.1
All Other, $6.2
USDA, $2.9
Total R&D =
$145.3 billion
NSF, $6.3
NASA, $12.2
DOE, $12.5
DOD, $71.9
HHS (NIH), $31.0
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and
R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS
Major Funding Priorities for FY16








Advanced Manufacturing
Low-carbon energy
Climate research and earth observation
Agricultural R&D
Infrastructure R&D
Antibiotic Resistance*
Precision Medicine*
Discovery Science:

Neuroscience; advanced computing
 COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16
National Institutes of Health
 $1 billion increase (+3.3%)
 Largest relative increases:
Alzheimer’s research, translational
science
 New initiatives:
Figure 1: NIH Budget
(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
 Antibiotic Resistance: $100 million
for NIAID
$20
 $200 million for Precision Medicine
$5
$15
$10
$0
 Large increase for Big Data
 BRAIN Initiative contribution
increases to $135 million
 Success rate: 19.3%
ARRA Funding
Cancer
Heart Lung Blood
Mental Health
General Med Sci
NIAID
NIDDK
All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebolarelated fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014
Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI
15%
10%
NIAID
5%
0%
-5%
NIH Total
-10%
-15%
-20%
Most individual ICs
fall within this band
-25%
-30%
Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS
National Science Foundation
 Total Budget: +5.2%
 Highest relative changes: SBE:
+7.1%; Engineering: +6.4%
 EHR: +11.2%
 New priority areas: Food-waterenergy; climate resilience;
several cross-agency initiatives
boosted
 BIO: +2.3%
 Most of the increase in Division
of Emerging Frontiers
 BioMaPS: +12.1%
 Neuroscience + BRAIN Initiative
Past and Current NSF Budgets by Directorate
Nominal percentage increase
8%
7%
6%
Average
Request Since
FY10*
5%
4%
FY 2016
Request
3%
2%
1%
0%
CISE
ENG
GEO
BIO
SBE
MPS
*Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS
analysis of past and current NSF budget data. © 2015 AAAS
Defense, Veterans and Energy
 Defense Dept: 8.3% cut to basic
research; mixed bag for medical
programs
Trends in DOD Science & Technology
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$18
$16
$14
$12
$10
 Veterans: 3.2% increase in medical &
prosthetics research resources
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
 DOE BER: Biological sciences
programs trimmed (-1.9%)
 Focus is on climate research instead
ARRA
Adv Tech (6.3)
Basic (6.1)
Medical research
Applied (6.2)
Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is
appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS
Looking Ahead
 Budget resolutions out…ultimate spending levels still TBD
 Efforts to get around the caps…
 American Cures Act and American Innovation Act (Durbin)
 Would fund several science agencies at 5% above inflation, in excess of sequester
levels
 Accelerating Biomedical Research Act (DeLauro, Mikulski)
 NIH spending cap exemption
 Medical Innovation Act (Warren)
 Would require large drug companies that settle with the government for
wrongdoing to pay a small portion of their annual profits for five years for NIH
and FDA; the “swear jar” approach
 War funding? Reserve funds?
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
BCA: Original Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
President's FY 2016 Budget
Senate Budget
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
House Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Defense Spending Base
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$610
$590
$570
$550
$530
$510
$490
$470
BCA: Original Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
President's FY 2016 Budget
Senate Budget
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
House Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from FY16 request.
Does not include war funding. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Nondefense Spending Base
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$600
$580
$560
$540
$520
$500
$480
$460
$440
$420
$400
BCA: Original Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
President's FY 2016 Budget
Senate Budget
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
House Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Looking Ahead: Appropriations
 Labor, HHS, Education subcommittee (governs NIH)
 House: Cole; DeLauro
 Senate: Blunt; Murray
 Commerce, Justice, Science (NSF)
 House: Culberson; Fattah
 Senate: Shelby; Mikulski
 Energy & Water
 House: Simpson; Kaptur
 Senate: Alexander; Feinstein
 Defense
 House: Frelinguysen; Visclosky
 Senate: Cochran; Durbin
 3. agency notes
 R&D
 STEM
For more info…
[email protected]
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd
-budget-and-policy-program