Transcript Federal R&D in FY 2016 Matt Hourihan April 30, 2015 for the AAAS Forum on Science & Technology Policy AAAS R&D Budget and Policy.

Federal R&D in FY 2016
Matt Hourihan
April 30, 2015
for the AAAS Forum on Science & Technology Policy
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
Trends in Federal Spending Since FY 2010
Percent of FY 2010 budget authority, constant dollars
5%
0%
Base
Discretionary
Caps
-5%
-10%
Total R&D
-15%
-20%
Nondefense R&D
-25%
-30%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Based on OMB and agency budget documents, and GDP deflators from the President's FY 2016 budget. © 2015 AAAS
Trends in Federal Spending Since FY 2010
Percent of FY 2010 budget authority, constant dollars
5%
Base
Discretionary
Caps
0%
-5%
NASA
-10%
NSF
-15%
-20%
DOE SC
-25%
NIH
-30%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Based on OMB and agency budget documents, and GDP deflators from the President's FY 2016 budget. © 2015 AAAS
Trends in Federal Spending Since FY 2010
Percent of FY 2010 budget authority, constant dollars
5%
Base
Discretionary
Caps
0%
NIST
-5%
-10%
DOE Applied
Programs*
-15%
USDA R&D
Programs
-20%
USGS
-25%
DOD S&T
-30%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*Excludes ARPA-E. Based on OMB and agency budget documents, and GDP deflators from the FY 2016 budget. © 2015 AAAS
Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 Budget
Total Outlays = $4.0 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest
$283
Defense
Discretionary
$528
[Defense R&D]
$77
Other Mandatory
$670
Nondefense
Discretionary
$495
Medicaid
$351
[Nondefense R&D]
$69
Medicare
$583
Social Security
$938
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
President's FY 2016 Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
BCA: Original Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
President's FY 2016 Budget
Senate Budget
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
House Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Function
percent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars
Commerce (includes NIST)
44.8%
Applied Energy Programs
23.3%
Agriculture
20.5%
Transportation
17.8%
Environment Agencies
12.6%
Defense Activities
8.1%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
5.0%
Health (includes NIH)
2.2%
Space
0.9%
-35.5%
Justice (DHS)
TOTAL
-40%
6.4%
-20%
0%
20%
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS
40%
60%
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016
budget authority in billions of dollars
Commerce, $2.1
All Other, $6.2
USDA, $2.9
Total R&D =
$145.3 billion
NSF, $6.3
NASA, $12.2
DOE, $12.5
DOD, $71.9
HHS (NIH), $31.0
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and
R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS
National Institutes of Health
 $1 billion increase (+3.3%)
 Largest relative increases:
Alzheimer’s research, translational
science
 New initiatives:
Figure 1: NIH Budget
(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
 Antibiotic Resistance: $100 million
for NIAID
$20
 $200 million for Precision Medicine
$5
$15
$10
$0
 Large increase for Big Data
 BRAIN Initiative contribution
increases to $135 million
 Success rate: 19.3%
ARRA Funding
Cancer
Heart Lung Blood
Mental Health
General Med Sci
NIAID
NIDDK
All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebolarelated fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014
Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI
15%
10%
NIAID
5%
0%
-5%
NIH Total
-10%
-15%
-20%
Most individual ICs
fall within this band
-25%
-30%
Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS
FY 2016 Office of Science Budgets
percent change from FY15, nominal dollars
TOTAL SCIENCE
Nuclear Physics
High-Energy Phys
Fusion Energy
Bio and Environ Res
Basic Energy Sci
Adv Computing
-15%
-10%
Request
Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS
-5%
0%
5%
House Cmte
10%
15%
20%
FY 2016 Energy Program Budgets
percent change from FY15, nominal dollars
Science
Electricity Delivery
Fossil Energy
Nuclear Energy
Efficiency and Renewables
ARPA-E
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Request
Figures include non-R&D. Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS
House Cmte
FY 2016 Defense S&T Budgets
percent change from FY15, nominal dollars
Basic (6.1)
Applied (6.2)
Adv Tech Dev (6.3)
DARPA*
-10%
-8%
Request
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
House NDAA**
*DARPA's budget is included in the 6.1, 6.2, and 6.3 accounts above. **HASC Chairman's Mark. Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS
NASA
Agriculture
 AFRI Increased to $450 million
(+38.5%)
 ARS receives $200 million injection
for facilities
 Two new innovation institutes:
biomanufacturing and
nanocellulosics
 $77 million total for antibiotic
resistance research
USDA R&D, FY 2000-2016
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
ARRA
Forest Service
Nat'l Inst Food Agr
Econ Res Service
Agr Res Service
Other
Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and
appropriations reports. © 2015 AAAS
NIST, NSF and DOE Science
Budgets in America COMPETES
in billions of constant 2015 dollars
$20
$19
$18
$17
$16
$15
$14
$13
$12
$11
COMPETES 2007 Path
COMPETES 2010 Path
Growth at BCA Cap Rate*
House GOP COMPETES
President's Request
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
$10
ARRA
Actuals
Growth to Keep Pace With GDP
House Dem COMPETES
*Sequester-level. Based on agency budgets, appropriations documents, and past and proposed COMPETES legislation. © 2015 AAAS
NSF Directorate Budgets and House COMPETES
Funding in millions, constant 2015 dollars
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Biological Science
Computing**
Engineering
Geoscience**
Physical Science
Social Science
*House proposal. **Adjusted for comparability. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS
DOE Budgets and House COMPETES
Funding in millions, constant 2015 dollars
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Nuclear Energy
ARPA-E
*House proposal. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS
Fossil Energy
EERE
OE
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-budget-and-policy-program