Transcript Dropout Prevention and Student Engagement Summit Turning Data Into Information: Performing a Data Audit to Understand the Nature and Scope of a School’s Dropout Problem PETER FRITZ DROPOUT PREVENTION AND STUDENT.

Dropout
Prevention
and Student
Engagement
Summit
Turning Data Into
Information:
Performing a Data Audit to
Understand the Nature and Scope of
a School’s Dropout Problem
PETER FRITZ
DROPOUT PREVENTION AND STUDENT ENGAGEMENT UNIT
COLORADO DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
February 18, 2011
Benefits of a Dropout Data
“Audit”
 Simple and fast – uses existing data already provided
to CDE
 Puts data in context – compares a school’s data to
state averages
 Understandable – graphic display of data makes it
easy to communicate findings
Limitations of a Dropout Data
“Audit”
 Not a substitute for an Early Warning System
 Exclusively quantitative vs. qualitative (helps answer
who dropped out and when but not why)
 Occurs after students have already dropped out
 The audit may not be informative for non-traditional
high schools (different grade configurations, serving
special student populations, etc)
Methodology
 Aggregated data from the past 3 years (2009-10,
2008-09, 2007-08)

Helps address issues with disaggregated groups that may have
a small single-year sample size or schools with small overall
populations

Compensates for single year “anomalies” (positive or negative)
 Data are taken from CDE’s Student End of Year
collection – unless otherwise noted
 State-wide averages are intended for comparison to a
high school with a “traditional” 9th – 12th grade range
Visualizing the Data
When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level
Percent of School’s Total Annual Dropouts by Grade Level
57.6%
40%
Inappropriate
/ unmerited
grade
promotionprograms
practices?
• Lack
of effective
transition and
orientation
between
State
middle and high school?
Average
for each
• Students in programs like SPED Transition Services, English
grade
as a Second
Language/Bilingual
Education
and ASCENT
are
• Less
experienced
/ less effective teachers
assigned
to
dropping out
aging out rather
than receiving a diploma –
freshman
andor
sophomore
level courses?
even with extra years allowed to graduate?
• Inappropriate / unmerited grade promotion practices at
• feeder
Inappropriate
curriculum design or curriculum sequencing?
middle schools?
30%
12.4%
5.8%
0%
14.4%
10%
22.3%
21.2%
20%
35.0%
Possible Implications:
31.4%
50%
9th
10th
11th
12th
When do Students Drop Out: Time of Year
20.0%
18.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
7.3%
4.8%
5.8%
7.1%
8.1%
5.8%
4.0%
7.2%
6.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
School A
State Average
8.0%
2.0%
11.6%
10.0%
12.0%
12.3%
12.0%
When do Students Drop Out: Time of Year
35.0%
30.0%
29.1%
25.0%
20.0%
School B
15.0%
State Average
10.0%
8.7%
0.7%
5.7%
6.3%
8.2%
9.1%
5.7%
6.7%
5.0%
0.2%
0.0%
6.2%
8.4%
5.0%
Students who exit in ways other than dropping out can
have a negative impact on a school’s graduation rate
Percent of Total 9th – 12th Grade Membership Annually Reported as …
State
Average
Dropouts
Expulsions
GED Transfers
GED Recipients
7.1%
5.1
0.2
1.3
0.5
9.0
School X
21.7
7.7
38.5%
0.1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Example #2
Percent of Total 9th – 12th Grade Membership Annually Reported as …
State
Average
Dropouts
Expulsions
GED Transfers
GED Recipients
7.1%
5.1
0.2
1.3
0.5
4.1
School Y
0%
5.3
5%
32.5%
23.1
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
By Middle School Attended
50%
40%
For each middle/
feeder school listed:
35%
32.3%
30%
27.3%
25.2%
25.1%
22.6%
20%
Percent of Total
Annual HS Dropouts
14.7%
10%
10%
0%
Anderson
Bradley
Cooper
Percent of Total HS
Student Population
Other
To download a copy of the Excel tool
used to create the graphs in this
report for your high school:
VISIT THE DROPOUT PREVENTION AND STUDENT
ENGAGEMENT UNIT WEB PAGE ON THE CDE WEB SITE:
H T T P : / / W W W. C D E . S TAT E . C O . U S / D R O P O U T P R E V E N T I O N /
Dropout
Prevention
and Student
Engagement
Summit
Student Perceptions
as Predictors of High
School Graduation
ALAN DAVIS
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND
RESEARCH METHODS
February 18, 2011
Best 8th grade predictors of high school graduation
 Grades in Academic Courses

Average 8th grade GPA of DPS Graduates: 3.2

Average 8th grade GPA of DPS Dropouts: 1.8
 Attendance
 Behavior (lack of referrals, suspensions)
 Student perceptions (goals, motivation, connections,
stresses, confidence)
Denver Study of Student Perceptions
 Importance of High







School
Importance of College
Social Confidence
Classroom Confidence
Family Support
Teacher Connections
Peer Connections
Meaningful motivation to
learn
 Academic Stress
 Social Stress
 Financial Stress
 Sleeping Problems
 Feeling Blue
 Agitation
 Eating Problems
 Physical Symptoms
Scales Most Predictive of High School Success
 Importance of College
 It is important that I go to college
 Meaningful Motivation to Learn
 I keep coming to school because I see the importance of
learning
 Classroom Confidence
 I am confident about asking questions in class
 Agitation (negative)
 During the past week I have been experiencing mood swings
 Academic Stress (negative)
 During the past month I have had difficulty taking tests
Predictive Power
 Combined scale correctly predicted
 58% of academically successful students
 60% of academically unsuccessful students
Prediction Score
Probability of
Academic Success
Probability of
Academic Failure
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
15%
21%
30%
40%
50%
61%
71%
85%
79%
70%
60%
50%
39%
29%