“Missouri Dropout Prevention Summit” April 20, 2009 Columbia, MO Every Child A Graduate Bob Wise, President Alliance for Excellent Education.
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“Missouri Dropout Prevention Summit” April 20, 2009 Columbia, MO Every Child A Graduate Bob Wise, President Alliance for Excellent Education The Challenge for Missouri & the Nation Three out of every ten students do not graduate from high school. About a third who graduate are not college- and work-ready. Source: EPE 2007; Greene 2002 Majority of 8th-Graders Read Below Grade Level Below Proficient 46% 11% 1% 43% 43% 14% 1% Black (MO) 49% 40% 10% <1% Black (U.S.) 46% 42% 11% <1% Hispanic (MO) Hispanic (U.S.) U.S. MO White (MO) White (U.S.) Source: NAEP, 2007. 42% Proficient & Above 70% 69% 30% 18% 45% 31% 17% 44% 35% 34% 3% 3% Below Basic Basic Proficient Advanced Comprehensive Data Systems Needed to Avoid This Crisis Missouri has in place 8 of the 10 elements recommended by the Data Quality Campaign (DQC) as the start of a robust P-12 longitudinal data system: •Ability to track individual students over time •Student-level demographic information •Ability to track individual students’ test records from year to year to measure academic growth •Ability to know which students have not been tested •Ability to match teachers to students by classroom and subject •Student-level graduation and dropout data •Ability to match student records between the K–12 and higher education systems •System in place to evaluate data system quality Missing: •Student-level transcript information •Information on student performance on college-readiness exams like SAT, ACT, and AP Roughly 2,000 Dropout Factories Account for… 12% Much12% of the All Dropouts dropout crisis is Black Dropouts located inSchools relatively Hispanic Dropouts All High 48% 48% few schools. 69% 69% 63% 63% Notes: Universe includes regular and vocational schools with grades of 10, 11, and 12 ; low grade of 7; and enrollment of at least 100 students. Dropout percentages by subgroup were derived from schools with a promoting power of 60 or less over a 3-year average. Source: Balfanz 2007 Who Pays When Students Fail to Graduate? Higher crime costs Lost The Students wages Increased Themselves… health care costs Reduced The salary Limited job opportunities Rest of Us… Compromised health Reduced voter participation Barriers to supporting a family The Economic Impact on the Individual 2005 Average Income by Educational Attainment $52,671 $60,000 $50,000 $36,645 $40,000 $26,933 $30,000 $17,299 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Some High School High School Diploma Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2006 The Economic Impact on Missouri $4.8 billion $1.5 billion $245 million $53 million Source: Alliance for Excellent Education 2006, 2007, 2008 Public Benefit of Halving the Number of Dropouts AmericA’s BAnk The American Taxpayer Forty-five billion RE: annual public contribution from graduating every child Source: Levin, Kilpatrick, Belfield, Muennig,, and Rouse 2006 45,000,000,000 The Economy Has Changed…Have Our Schools? Tasks carried out by the American workforce 1960-2002 15% Abstract tasks Percent change 10% 5% 0% Routine tasks -5% -10% 1960 1970 Sources: Autor, Levy, and Murnane 2003. 1980 1990 Manual 2002 tasks What Americans Value U.S. U.S.Rankings RankingsononOlympics PISA Basketball Reading 1 Finland 546 2 Canada 534 3 New Zealand 529 4 Australia 528 5 Ireland 527 6 Korea 525 Swimming Science Problem Solving Rowing Triathlon Math 1 Finland 563 1 Korea 550 1 Finland 548 2 Canada 534 2 Finland 548 2 Korea 547 3 Japan 531 3 Japan 547 3 Netherlands 531 4 New Zealand 530 4 New Zealand 533 4 Switzerland 530 5 Australia 527 5 Australia 530 5 Canada 527 Canada 529 6 Japan 523 Belgium 525 7 New Zealand 522 6 Netherlands 525 6 7 Korea 522 7 8 Germany 516 8 Switzerland 521 8 Belgium 520 Netherlands 520 9 Australia 520 France 519 10 Denmark 513 7 United Kingdom 523 8 Japan 522 9 United Kingdom 515 9 9 Sweden 516 10 Czech Republic 513 10 10 Austria 507 11 Switzerland 512 11 Denmark 517 11 Czech Republic 510 11 Belgium 507 12 Austria 511 12 Czech Republic 516 12 Iceland 506 12 Iceland 507 13 Belgium 510 13 Germany 514 13 Austria 505 13 Norway 505 14 Ireland 508 14 Sweden 509 14 Germany 504 14 France 505 15 Hungary 504 15 Austria 506 15 Sweden 502 15 United States 504 16 Sweden 503 16 Iceland 505 16 Ireland 501 16 Denmark 497 17 Poland 498 17 Hungary 501 17 France 496 17 Switzerland 494 18 Denmark 496 18 Ireland 499 18 United Kingdom 495 18 Spain 493 19 France 495 19 Luxembourg 494 19 Poland 495 19 Czech Republic 492 20 Iceland 491 20 Slovak Republic 492 20 Slovak Republic 492 20 Italy 487 489 21 Norway 490 21 Hungary 491 21 Germany 484 22 Slovak Republic 488 22 Poland 487 22 Luxembourg 490 22 Hungary 480 23 Spain 488 23 Spain 482 23 Norway 490 23 Poland 479 24 Norway 487 24 United States 477 24 Portugal 479 25 Luxembourg 486 25 Greece 474 26 Italy 26 Luxembourg 441 27 Mexico 422 U.S. Ranks 15th Sources: PISA 2004, 2007 U.S. Ranks 21st 21 27 United States Portugal 24 Spain 480 25 Portugal 470 25 United States 474 475 26 Italy 470 26 Portugal U.S. Ranks 25th 466 474 27 Greece 449 27 Italy 462 U.S. Ranks 24th As Others Rise to the Challenge, U.S. Advantage Drops Percent of Population with HS Degree or Equivalent 1990’s 1980’s 1 13 %100 1970’s 90 1960’s 80 70 60 50 40 1 30 27 20 10 Notes: 1) Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes; 2) Year of reference 2004; 3) Year of reference 2003. 4) Percent population recieviing a HS degree in each decade is approximated by the age cohort typically recieving diplomas at that time; e.g. 1960s is approximated by the proportion of 55-64 year olds with a high school diploma. Source: OECD 2008 Brazil2 Portugal Turkey Mexico Spain Chile2 Italy Greece Korea Ireland Poland Belgium Iceland France Australia Luxembourg OECD average EU19 average New Zealand Netherlands UK Finland Hungary Israel Slovak Republic Slovenia Austria Russian Fed.3 Sweden Norway Denmark Canada Germany Switzerland Estonia Czech Republic United States 0 Federal Support for High Schools is Missing Missing Middle: FY 2009 $22 $20 Amount (in billions) $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Pre-K–6 Grades 7–9 Grades 10–12 Postsecondary Source: US Department of Education Budget FY2008; US Department of HHS Budget FY2008 The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Unprecedented infusion of funding and prioritization of education by federal government •Temporary money provided to fill shortfalls in education funding. ED estimate for MO: Over $1 Billion 14 ESEA’s Approach is Somewhat Backwards 50+ sets of standards State Assessments Graduation rates Identifying schools + One-size-fits-all school consequences Federal ESEA – A New Approach National State District School Common Standards + Graduation Rate Calculations Set of diagnostic indicators Differentiate schools’ needs Individualize school improvement strategies Potential Federal Support Graduation Promise Act Turning around America’s low-performing high schools • New $2.5 billion targeted for HS turnaround • State & district systems of high school improvement: – Data-driven – Differentiate between type of school needs – Individualize school-site improvement strategies Additional Federal Support GRADUATES Act Developing or replicating innovative ways to improve student achievement • Fund partnerships between schools, districts and community partners, businesses, higher education, researchers • Implement innovative high school teaching/learning • Evaluate and share best practices Comprehensive Literacy Bill Improving literacy birth through grade 12 • New funding targeted for early childhood, K-3, and adolescent literacy • State, district, and school comprehensive literacy plans • Materials, extra time, and help for struggling readers • Professional development for teachers of core academic subjects Governor Bob Wise Alliance for Excellent Education www.all4ed.org Raising the Grade: How High School Reform Can Save Our Youth and Our Nation available at www.amazon.com, www.barnesandnoble.com, www.bordersstores.com, www.booksense.com, www.booksamillion.com, www.wiley.com OPTIONAL SLIDES NCLB: State Definitions of “Proficiency” Vary Greatly Eighth Grade Reading, 2007 95 Percent “proficient” on state test TN GA TX NC NE AK 85 ID IL DE UT WV OK OH KS SD CT PA IA VA MI 75 ND SC AZ MA NJ MD IN 65 MT OR WA CO KY AR NH ME MN RI LA 55 NY NV NM MS FL 45 HI MO CA 35 State standards = NAEP standard 25 15 15 20 25 30 35 Percent “proficient” on NAEP Percent “proficient” on NAEP 40 Notes: (1) Excludes VT and DC (2) 2006 data used for HI, NE, NJ, NC, OR, TN, WI; 2007 data by grade were not available when this chart was created. Source: Alliance for Excellent Education, assistance from Goodwin Liu 45