Transcript Class of 2002 Promoting Power

Everyone
Graduates!
What Your School and Community Can Do to
Prevent Dropout and Secure Success for All
Youth
Nettie Legters
Center for Social Organization of Schools
Johns Hopkins University
Prepared for the National High School Center Summer Institute
Washington, DC, June 2008
UNDERSTAND OUR
CHALLENGE
How Many Drop Out?
 Nationwide, 1.2 million students drop out of high
school each year
 7,000/day, 12 million over the next decade
 Every nine seconds in America, a student becomes
a dropout
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Total Number of Students and Graduates
Class of 2005 Grade Enrollments and Graduates for the Nation's Public
School Students
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
Grade
Low Grades
Middle Grades
High Grades
Graduates
Class of 2006 Estimated On-Time Cohort Enrollments by Grade for Tennessee
70,000
60,000
Estimated On-Time Grade
12
th
11
th
10
th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3r d
2n
d
1s
t
n
50,000
K in
de
r gr
ar t
e
Total Enrollment
80,000
Class of 2006 Estimated On-Time Cohort Enrollments by Grade for Nashville
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Estimated On-Time Grade
12
th
11
th
10
th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th
4th
3r d
2n
d
1s
t
n
3,000
K in
de
r gr
ar t
e
Total Enrollment
8,000
Where Do They Drop Out?
 Half attended achievement gap high schools across
the country
 Half attended chronically low performing high schools
located
 In urban areas in Northeast, Midwest and West
 In all areas throughout the South and Southeast
Where Did All The Freshmen Go?
12th
Graders
11th
Graders
10th
Graders
9th
Graders
197
259
327
484
Number of 9th Graders in 1996/97 = 669
% promoted to 12th grade in four years = 29%
The Nation’s Dropout Crisis is Concentrated in 15% of its High Schools
in Which Every Year 40% or More of Students Fail to Graduate
Number of High Schools Nationally by Different Levels of Promoting Power (Class of 2006)
6,000
5,003
5,000
4,000
2,704
3,000
1,999
2,000
2,986
1,851
1,000
0
60% or below
61-70%
71-80%
Promoting Power
81-89%
90% or above
Percentage of Minority Students Attending Schools with Weak Promoting Power
Percentage of Race/Ethnicity
Group
70%
64%
60%
54%
47%
50%
40%
40%
35%
30%
33%
22%
20%
8%
10%
5%
0%
African American
Latino
Race/Ethnicity
Nation Tennessee Nashville-Davidson
White
Percentage of Students Eligible for Free or Reduced-Price Lunch in Non-Weak Promoting
Power Schools and Schools with Weak Promoting Power
Percentage of Students
100%
80%
54%
60%
40%
59%
36%
28%
53%
32%
20%
0%
Nation
Tennessee
Nashville-Davidson
Percentage of students in non-weak promoting power schools eligible for free or reduced-price lunch 2005-06
Percentage of students in weak promoting power schools eligible for free or reduced-price lunch 2005-06
Why Do Students Drop Out?





Bright But Bored
Life Event
Academic Failure
Multi-year Process of Disengagement
Most Have High Aspirations and Regret Dropping
Out
Read:
The Silent Epidemic
Dropouts in America
Why Do Schools Drop Out Students?
 The Greatest Proximate Cause is that there is
a fundamental Miss-Match between the
Number of Students in Need of Academic and
Social Supports and the Human Resources
and Know How Available to Help
The Number of Students in need of mentors, tutors, attendance monitoring, and
homework support in High Poverty Secondary Schools can be in the 100’s
Percentages of freshmen with various characteristics,
by high school, 1999-2000
Percent
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
First-time freshmen
Magnet or vocational schools
First-time, no more than 14 years old
First-time, on-age, attendance of at least 80% in 8th grade
First-time, on-age, at least 80% attendance, 7th+ in math and
reading
TAKE ACTION
 Identify Dropouts and Develop Early Warning
Systems
 Implement System of Comprehensive, Targeted,
and Intensive Interventions in Schools and Across
Your Community
 States and Districts Serve as Brokers of Diverse
Portfolio of High Schools and Coordinated
Interventions
 Advocate for Federal and State Investments
IDENTIFY DROPOUTS
 Are Easily Identifiable Using Data Routinely Collected
by Schools
 Can be Identified at Key Junctures of Secondary
School When Their Odds for Success are About to
Take a Turn for the Worse
 Often Persist in School for a Long Time before
Dropping Out, Despite Years of Struggles
Attendance, Behavior and Course Failure in the Secondary
Grades are Highly Predictive of High School Graduation
Graduation Outcomes for Students with 6th Grade
Off-Track Indicators-Philadelphia
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Attend <
80%
Fail Math Fail English Suspended
Does Not Graduate
Graduates with One Extra Year
Graduates On Time
In High Poverty School Districts, 75% of Eventual Dropouts
Can be Identified between the 6th and 9th Grade
Percent of Dropouts That Can Be
Identified between the 6th and 9th
grade-Boston Class of 2003
End of 6th Grade
24%
43%
32%
End of 9th Grade
No Off Track
Indicator 6th-9th
Grade
Using Early Warning Systems and On and Off Track
Indicators We Can Identify Which Students have Great
Odds of Dropping Out Long Before They Do So
Comprehensive Prevention Model
Type of Intervention
Portion of Failure to
Succeed Students
Addressed
Resource Needs
School-wide
Preventative
65-75%
Maybe able to ReOrganizes Existing
resources
Targeted
15-25%
Additional
Resources Typically
Needed
Intensive
5-10%
Partners with
Resources Needed
High School Reform Components

Personalized School Organization


Curriculum/Instruction







Small Learning Communities, Ninth Grade Academy, Career Academies,
Teams, Common Planning Time, Extended Class Periods
Common Core College Preparatory Curriculum
Individualized Learning Plans
Double & Triple Dose Math & English
Active Instruction, Integrated Career Themes
Freshman Seminar, Senior Seminar
Acceleration Opportunities (AP, IB, Early College)
Student and Staff Support




Mentors, Tutors, Counseling, Wrap-Around Services
Leadership Development
Planning & Coaching
Community Engagement and Partnerships
School Disengagement Precedes Involvement with the Juvenile Justice
System and Teenage Pregnancy
Males Incarcerated in High
School-Philadelphia
33%
67%
Females Who Give Birth in
High School-Philadelphia
No 6th Grade
Indicator
6th Grade Off
Track Indicator
33%
67%
No 6th Grade
Indicator
6th Grade Off
Track Indicator
Currently in Large Cities the Social Safety Net is Not Working
Dropout and Graduation Rates for Philadelphia
Students Involved with Social Service AgenciesClass of 2000
100%
80%
60%
Graduate
Dropout
40%
20%
0%
Teengage Aduse and Foster Care
Pregnancy
Neglect
Juvenile
Justice
FY 2007 ED Appropriations:
The Missing Middle Chart
$20,000,000,000
$18,000,000,000
Small Learning Communities
Pell
$16,000,000,000
SEOG
$14,000,000,000
LEAP
Federal Work Study
$12,000,000,000
Striving Readers
$10,000,000,000
TRIO
$8,000,000,000
GEAR-UP
Perkins
$6,000,000,000
Head Start
$4,000,000,000
Reading First
Title I
$2,000,000,000
$0
PreK-6
Grades 7-9
Grades 10-12
Postsecondary
Important State and Federal Roles in
Transforming Secondary Education
 Graduation Promise Act-(sufficiently funded to





transform all low performing high schools)
Success in the Middle Bill
Adolescent Literacy
Highly Effective Teacher Fund
Data Systems and Graduation Rate AccountabilityCommon and Accurate Measure, Meaningful Growth
Goals, Disaggregated, Equal to Test Scores
Secondary Innovations Bill
WHAT’S THE PRIZE IF WE
ACT?
Social and Economic Benefits
 Our nation can recoup 45 billion dollars in lost tax
revenues, health care expenditures, and social
service outlays if we cut the number of high school
dropouts in half (Levin et. al, 2007)
 Pacific Northwest could see a $8 billion boost in its
economy by cutting # of dropouts in half (Alliance for
Excellent Education)
Benton Harbor Freshmen
Bring Home the Gold
The Center for Social Organization of Schools
Johns Hopkins University
3003 N. Charles St., Ste. 200
Baltimore, MD 21218
410-516-8800
www.csos.jhu.edu