Transcript Budget Decisions in Times of Fiscal Constraint

Graduation Rates as a Piece of the
Larger Puzzle
Presented to:
Mississippi Graduation Rate Task Force
Jackson, MS
August 26, 2009
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150
Boulder, Colorado 80301
Education Attainment as the Goal
Why Everybody’s on the Bandwagon
Slide 2
Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal
Income, and Economic Strength
$30,000
High Income, Low Educational Attainment
High Income, High Educational Attainment
CT
State New Economy Index (2002)
Top Tier
Middle Tier
NJ
Personal Income Per Capita, 2000
Low Tier
MA
MD
$25,000
NH VA
DE
CA
AK
NV
FL
OH
IN
$20,000
TN
SC
WV
US
WI GA
OR
PA
NC AZ
MO
IA ME
WY TX
AL
KY
AR
MI
OK ID
LA
SD
NM
IL
CO
NYMN
WA
HI RI
VT
KS
NE
UT
ND
MT
MS
Low Income, Low Educational Attainment
$15,000
15%
20%
25%
Low Income, High Educational Attainment
30%
35%
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
slide 3
40%
Educational Attainment and Income
$50,000
1980
Personal Income Per Capita
$43,000
$36,000
$29,000
AK
CT
CA
NJ
HI
MD
NY WA
IL
DE
MA
MN
OR VA
PAFLWI
MI US KS
OH
NH
RI
TX
IA
IN MOOK AZ
NE
MT
LA
VT UT
MEGAID NM
WVKY TNNC SD
ND
AL
SC
AR
MS
NV
$22,000
WY
CO
Correlation = 0.64
$15,000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
slide 4
Educational Attainment and Income
$50,000
1990
Personal Income Per Capita
$43,000
CT
NJ
$36,000
AK
NV
$29,000
$22,000
KY
WV AR
NY
HI
CA
DE
IL
NH
VA
MN
RI
WA
FL PA
US
OH MI
WI
WY
NE
OR KS
GA
IN NC
IAMO
ME
AZTX
TN
OK
SD
ND
SC
AL ID
MT
LA
UT
NM
MD
MA
CO
VT
MS
Correlation = 0.76
$15,000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
slide 5
Educational Attainment and Income
$50,000
2000
CT
NJ
Personal Income Per Capita
$43,000
NY
NH
CA IL MN
WA
VA
DE
$36,000
NV
AK
PA
RI
MI US
FL
WY
WI
HI
OH
OR
TXGA NEKS
MO
IN
NC
IA
ME
TN
SDAZ
ND
SC
OK
KY
UT
ID
AL
LA
MT
NM
WV AR
MS
$29,000
MA
MD
CO
VT
$22,000
Correlation = 0.80
$15,000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
slide 6
Educational Attainment and Income
$50,000
CT
2005
NJ
Personal Income Per Capita
$43,000
MA
MD
NY
WY
$36,000
NV
$29,000
KY
WV AR
MS LA
DE CA
AK
PA
USHI
FL
WI
NE
KS
SD
TX MI OR
OH IA
ND
MO
IN
NC
ME GA
TN
AZ
OK
AL
MT
SC
ID NM
UT
MNNH VA
CO
IL
WA
RI
VT
$22,000
Correlation = 0.83
$15,000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey
slide 7
Increasing Levels of Education Attainment Leads
to Improved Societal Outcomes
•
•
•
•
Increased levels of workforce participation
Decreased rates of incarceration
Improved health outcomes
Reduced participation in Medicaid and other social
service programs
• Greater participation in artistic, cultural, and civic
pursuits
• Higher levels of volunteerism and social engagement
slide 8
Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not Participating in
the Workforce by Education Attainment, 2005
U.S.
Mississippi
Less than High School
37.0
43.1
High School
24.7
27.6
Some College
21.0
23.0
Associate Degree
17.4
18.3
Bachelor’s Degree
16.5
17.0
Graduate/Prof. Degree
13.9
13.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey PUMS
slide 9
Relationship Between Educational Attainment & Health
30
MN
NH
VT
State Health Index, United Health Foundation
Correlation = 0.69
UT HI
ND
WI
IAME
15
ID
0
IN
AR
OK
AL
SC
TN
-15
MS
-30
10%
CT
NE
KS
SD
CO
RI
WA
VA
OR
CA
PA
OH AZAK MT
WY
MI
USDE IL NY
NJ
MD
MO TX
NV
KY
WV
MA
NM
NC
FL
GA
LA
20%
30%
40%
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Source: United Health Foundation, U.S. Census Bureau
Slide 10
Where does Mississippi Stand on
Educational Attainment?
Slide 11
Educational Attainment & Rank Among States
Mississippi 2007 (percent)
Age 18-24 with a High School Diploma
Rank 49
Rank 48
Age 25-64 with a High School Diploma
Age 25-64 with an Associates Degree
Rank 29
Rank 49
Age 25-64 with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Rank 49
Age 25-64 with a Graduate or Professional Degree
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey.
slide 12
35
30
25
20
0
37.4
37.4
37.0
36.5
35.9
35.4
34.5
34.4
33.6
32.7
32.2
31.7
31.3
31.1
30.7
30.3
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.0
28.9
28.5
28.3
27.7
27.5
27.4
27.3
27.3
27.1
27.0
26.7
26.6
26.3
26.3
26.0
25.8
25.6
24.6
24.3
24.2
23.9
23.5
23.0
22.1
21.7
21.6
20.7
20.2
19.0
40
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Maryland
New Jersey
Colorado
Virginia
Vermont
New Hampshire
New York
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Illinois
Washington
Hawaii
Kansas
California
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oregon
Utah
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Maine
Montana
Wisconsin
Delaware
Florida
South Dakota
North Carolina
Iowa
Missouri
Michigan
Alaska
Texas
Ohio
Arizona
Idaho
New Mexico
South Carolina
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Indiana
Tennessee
Alabama
Nevada
Kentucky
Louisiana
Arkansas
Mississippi
West Virginia
45
41.3
Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with a Bachelor’s
Degree or Higher
15
10
5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey.
Slide 13
8
6
0
5.1
10
11.9
11.3
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.3
9.1
9.1
9.0
9.0
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.0
8.0
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.5
12
North Dakota
Hawaii
Wyoming
Iowa
South Dakota
Minnesota
Nebraska
Washington
New Hampshire
Maine
Wisconsin
Utah
Florida
Idaho
Vermont
North Carolina
New York
Alaska
Michigan
South Carolina
Delaware
Oregon
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Montana
Kansas
Ohio
Mississippi
Connecticut
Indiana
Massachusetts
Colorado
Illinois
New Mexico
California
Nevada
Alabama
Oklahoma
Missouri
Virginia
West Virginia
Kentucky
Maryland
Georgia
New Jersey
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Louisiana
14.2
16
Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with an
Associate Degree
14
4
2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey.
Slide 14
Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher,
2005-07 Annual Average
(by PUMA with county boundaries displayed)
Alcorn
Tippah
Tishomingo
Benton
Tunica Tate M arshall
Prentiss
Union
Panola Lafayette
Quitman
Lee
Pontotoc Itawamba
Coahoma
Yalobusha
Calhoun
Tallahatchie
Chickasaw M onroe
Bolivar
Grenada
Webster Clay
Sunflower
Leflore M ontgomery
Lowndes
Oktibbeha
Carroll
Choctaw
Washington
Holmes
Humphreys
Noxubee
Attala
Winston
Sharkey
Leake
Yazoo
Neshoba
Issaquena
Kemper
M adison
Newton
Lauderdale
Scott
Warren Hinds
Rankin
Smith
Jasper
Claiborne
Clarke
Copiah Simpson
Jefferson
Jones
Covington
Wayne
Lincoln Jefferson
Davis
Adams Franklin
Lawrence
DeSoto
Wilkinson
Amite
Pike
M arion
Lamar
Perry Greene
Walthall
Forrest
Pearl River Stone
Harrison
Hancock
26.3 to 39.0
19.7 to 26.3
16.0 to 19.7
13.6 to 16.0
12.1 to 13.6
George
Jackson
Mississippi = 19.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey PUMS File.
Percent of Population Age 25-64 with Just an Associate’s Degree,
2005-07 Annual Average
(by PUMA with county boundaries displayed)
Alcorn
Tippah
Tishomingo
Benton
Tunica Tate M arshall
Prentiss
Union
Panola Lafayette
Quitman
Lee
Pontotoc Itawamba
Coahoma
Yalobusha
Calhoun
Tallahatchie
Chickasaw M onroe
Bolivar
Grenada
Webster Clay
Sunflower
Leflore M ontgomery
Lowndes
Oktibbeha
Carroll
Choctaw
Washington
Holmes
Humphreys
Noxubee
Attala
Winston
Sharkey
Leake
Yazoo
Neshoba
Issaquena
Kemper
M adison
Newton
Lauderdale
Scott
Warren Hinds
Rankin
Smith
Jasper
Claiborne
Clarke
Copiah Simpson
Jefferson
Jones
Covington
Wayne
Lincoln Jefferson
Davis
Adams Franklin
Lawrence
DeSoto
Wilkinson
Amite
Pike
M arion
Lamar
Perry Greene
Walthall
Forrest
Pearl River Stone
Harrison
Hancock
10.0 to 10.5
8.8 to 10.0
7.9 to 8.8
7.1 to 7.9
5.2 to 7.1
George
Jackson
Mississippi = 8.4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey PUMS File.
Difference in Education Attainment Between
Whites and African Americans
(2006, Percent)
slide 17
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) Public
Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.
If all racial/ethnic groups had same educational
attainment, annual personal income in Mississippi
would be $7 BILLION higher!
30%
24%
20%
12%
10%
0%
Black
White
Mississippi Population with Bachelor’s Degree
Source: Measuring Up 2008: The National Center for Public Policy in Higher Education
slide 18
How Big is the Challenge
Facing Mississippi?
Slide 19
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by
Age Group – Mississippi, U.S. & Leading OECD Countries
Age 25-34
Age 55-64
37.7
39.6
40.9
39.2
40.8
41.4
41.5
28.5
16.9
16.0
19.4
22.5
24.9
26.9
30.0
26.8
25.7
26.3
29.0
30.8
33.2
36.2
34.6
34.8
24.0
19.2
22.9
20
32.8
30.3
30
41.9
42.2
38.1
39.5
43.6
37.5
37.4
40
39.3
43.2
46.2
50
Age 45-54
53.0
54.1
50.8
54.8
60
Age 35-44
10.6
10
0
Canada
Japan
Korea
New
Zealand
Ireland
Belgium Norway
France Denmark
U.S.
Mississippi
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008
slide 20
What Would it Take for Mississippi to Reach the
Goal Being Set in Many Other States?
55% of Population
Age 25-64 with
College Degrees
Slide 21
Reaching Goal by 2025 (55%) – Mississippi
825,114
Number of Individuals to Attain 55% Goal
231,759
Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have
Degrees
593,355
Additional Degree Production Needed (2005 to 2025)
406,220
Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production
-21,058
Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration
208,193
Additional Degrees Needed
10,410
Additional Degrees Needed per Year (currently produce
20,311 in all Sectors)
57.5%
Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor’s Degree
Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)
Slide 22
Educational Attainment in Mississippi (Percent)
Current, In 2025 with Current Degree Production, and
Best-Performing Countries in 2025
Slide 23
Source: American Community Survey, NCHEMS Calculations
How Can Mississippi Reach International Competitiveness?
Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration
and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures
Degrees Produced 2005-25 with
Current Rate of Production
Additional Degrees from Population Growth
Additional Degrees from Net Migration of
College-Educated Residents
Reaching Best Performance in High School
Graduation Rates by 2025
Reaching Best Performance in
College-Going Rates by 2025
Pipeline Performance
Is Cumulative
Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree
Production per FTE Student
Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above
Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)
Slide 24
Source: Calculations by NCHEMS
Collective Cost to Mississippi, Assuming
Tuition Stays the Same
$433 Million = Annual Costs of Additional Students
at Current $ per Student
$ 1.02 Billion = Current State Contribution
42% = Percent Increase in Annual State Support
Needed
*Based on figures from 2004-05
slide 25
Average Cost to Students, Assuming
No Additional State Investment
$ 3,491 = Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public FourYear Institutions
78% Increase in Tuition and Fees
(Currently $ 4,451)
$ 1,545 = Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public TwoYear Institutions
158% Increase in Tuition and Fees
(Currently $ 979)
slide 26
Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Age Students at
Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than
30 States
1,333,645
893,504
Texas
Florida
California
New Jersey
Tennessee
Nevada
Louisiana
Arkansas
Kentucky
North Carolina
Arizona
Mississippi
Ohio
South Carolina
Alabama
West Virginia
Alaska
Oklahoma
Oregon
Michigan
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Maine
Idaho
Montana
Hawaii
Georgia
Wyoming
Maryland
Connecticut
Missouri
Indiana
slide 27
560,688
320,720
307,956
287,565
204,814
186,640
159,765
132,748
122,061
115,120
114,375
112,681
110,495
74,752
65,853
62,332
53,995
53,574
47,420
44,757
39,436
37,706
34,547
28,659
25,326
24,741
23,542
10,875
8,898
2,788
0
100,000
200,000
In order to reach international competitiveness
by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close
the gap with even best performance with
traditional college students. They must rely on
the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back
into the education system and on track to
attaining college degrees.
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Getting More Young Adults to
Complete College
Slide 28
Student Pipeline, 2006
100
Best Performing State
United States
Mississippi
86.0
80
69.0
61.0
60
60.0
42.0
46.0
42.9
42.0
40
28.0 28.0
30.0
29.3
20.8
20.0
20
14.0
0
Of 100
9th Graders,
How Many…
Graduate from
High School
Directly Enter
College
Enroll in
Second Year
Graduate
Within 150% of
Program Time
Are Age 25-44
with a Bachelor's
Degree
Sources: (1) Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity; Chance for College by Age 19. (2) NCES,
IPEDS 2006 Retention Rate File and 2006 Graduation Rate File. (3) U.S. Census Bureau,
2006 American Community Survey.
slide 29
Percent of Whites & African Americans at Each Stage of the
Education Pipeline
Mississippi, 2005
80
White
70
African American
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
18 Year-Olds
High School
Graduates
First-Time
Freshman
All Other
Associate Degrees Bachelor's Degrees All Credentials and
Undergraduates
Awarded
Awarded
Degrees Awarded
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau 2005 Population Estimates. NCES Common Core of Data 2004-05 High
School Diploma Recipients. NCES, IPEDS Fall 2005 Enrollments File, 2004-05 Completions File.
Slide 30
High School Graduation Rates - Public High School Graduates as a
Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2006
100
86.3
80
68.6
60.9
50.5
60
40
20
0
da
Neva
da
Flor i ia
g
Geor Caroli na
h
Sout i ana
Louis si ppi
is
Miss
ama
Alab exico
M
New
ka
Alas
s
Texa or k
Y
New arolina
C
Nor th
orni a
Cal if ssee
e
Tenn an
ig
Mich
aii
Haw a
n
Arizo ia
n
Virgi n
Nat io ngton
hi
Was
war e
Del a a
n
Indi a
rado
Col o n
o
Oreg cky
u
Kent
i nia
t Vir g
Wes Island
e
Rhod
Ohi o nd
la
Mar y
ming
Wyo oma
h
Okl a achusetts
Mass
is
Il lino
e
Mai n s
a
Kans
our i
Miss ct icut
e
e
Conn ampshir
H
New
o
Idah
Utah yl vani a
s
Penn Dakota
Nor th sas
n
Arka na
ta
Mon ont
Ver m sin
on
Wisc Dakota
h
Sout aska
Nebr ota
es
Minn
Iowa Jer sey
New
slide 31
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity
Projected Change in Mississippi Population by Age
and Race/Ethnicity, 2006-25 (in Thousands)
710,038
69,208
Slide 32
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Actual & Projected High School Graduates,
1991-92 through 2021-22
Public & Non-public Total
34,000
Actual
32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
Slide 33
Projected
College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of
High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2006
61.6
44.8
Arizona
Idaho
Alaska
Utah
Oregon
Washington
Nevada
Rhode Island
Vermont
Texas
California
Arkansas
Missouri
West Virginia
Wyoming
Montana
Oklahoma
Hawaii
Ohio
Florida
Illinois
Iowa
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Nation
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Colorado
Indiana
Tennessee
South Carolina
Delaware
Nebraska
Maine
New Hampshire
Michigan
Louisiana
North Carolina
Maryland
Kansas
Virginia
Georgia
Minnesota
New Jersey
Connecticut
New Mexico
Massachusetts
South Dakota
North Dakota
New York
Mississippi
0
76.1
75
50
25
slide 34
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity
Public Research Institutions - Bachelors Degrees Awarded
per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2006-07
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Completions File; c2007_a Early Release Data File Downloaded 04-28-08; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07
Instructional Activity File; efia2007 Final Release Data File; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Unduplicated Headcount File; effy2007 Final
Release Data File.; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2006 Enrollment File; ef2006a Final Release Data File.
Slide 35
Public Masters & Bachelors Institutions - Bachelors Degrees
Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2006-07
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Completions File; c2007_a Early Release Data File Downloaded 04-28-08; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07
Instructional Activity File; efia2007 Final Release Data File; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Unduplicated Headcount File; effy2007 Final
Release Data File.; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2006 Enrollment File; ef2006a Final Release Data File.
Slide 36
Public Associate Colleges - Total Credentials Awarded (Less
than Bachelors) per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2006-07
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Completions File; c2007_a Early Release Data File Downloaded 04-28-08; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07
Instructional Activity File; efia2007 Final Release Data File; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Unduplicated Headcount File; effy2007 Final
Release Data File.; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2006 Enrollment File; ef2006a Final Release Data File.
Slide 37
60
58.7
Undergraduate Credentials & Degrees Awarded at All Colleges per
1,000 Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006
33.5
40
14.7
ka
Alas da
Neva iana
Louis
s
Texa ersey
J
New essee
Tenn sas
n
Arka sippi
is
Miss Mexico
New ma
a
Alab Carolina
h
inia
Sout
t Virg
We s
e
Main rnia
o
Calif ecticut
Conn ia
g
Geor
aii
Haw n
o
Oreg
o
Idah land
Mary oma
h
Okla Carolina
North
Ohio na
ta
Mon
nia
Virgi gan
i
Mich d States
Unitena
India are
w
Dela
da
Flori uri
o
Miss cky
u
Kent York
New
on
hingt
Wa s a d o
r
Colo sylvania e
r
Penn ampshi
H
New
is
Illino onsin
Wisc Dakota
s
h
Sout achusett
Mass a
n
Arizo s
a
Kans ont
Verm ska
a
Nebr sota
e
Minn
Utah ing
m
Wyo e Island
Rhod Dakota
North
Iowa
slide 38
Certificates/Diplomas
Associate
Bachelor's
50
30
20
10
0
Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS
Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000
Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006
19.1
14.5
7.8
Alaska
Nevada
Texas
Wyoming
Georgia
New Mexico
Arkansas
Mississippi
California
Florida
Tennessee
Louisiana
Kentucky
New Jersey
South Carolina
North Carolina
Alabama
Washington
Hawaii
Oregon
United States
Oklahoma
Arizona
Idaho
Ohio
Michigan
Maryland
Maine
Virginia
West Virginia
Illinois
Indiana
Wisconsin
Montana
Connecticut
Missouri
Colorado
Kansas
Minnesota
New York
Delaware
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Nebraska
Utah
Iowa
Massachusetts
Vermont
Rhode Island
North Dakota
0
36.5
40
30
20
10
slide 39
NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS
Source:
Associate Degrees Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000 Adults
Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006
10.4
9.2
3.6
Louisiana
Georgia
Nevada
Alaska
Tennessee
Delaware
Connecticut
Texas
South Carolina
West Virginia
Arkansas
Alabama
Maine
Maryland
New Jersey
Idaho
Montana
Massachusett
Colorado
Ohio
Kentucky
North Carolina
Virginia
Wisconsin
Indiana
Oregon
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
California
United States
Missouri
Oklahoma
Vermont
Michigan
Arizona
Hawaii
Mississippi
New
Illinois
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
New York
Minnesota
Washington
Utah
North Dakota
Florida
Rhode Island
Iowa
Wyoming
0
23.1
25
20
15
10
5
Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS
slide 40
Certificates & Diplomas Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000
Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006
5.30
2.93
0.48
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Montana
Hawaii
Alaska
Maine
West Virginia
Nevada
Vermont
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Indiana
Maryland
New Hampshire
Oregon
Louisiana
Michigan
Tennessee
Idaho
Ohio
Virginia
Texas
South Dakota
Missouri
North Dakota
Alabama
Delaware
Pennsylvania
United States
New Mexico
South Carolina
California
Nebraska
Utah
North Carolina
Arkansas
Florida
Washington
Colorado
Iowa
Illinois
Kansas
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Georgia
Kentucky
Arizona
Wyoming
0
15.34
16
12
8
4
Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS
slide 41
Focus on Reentry Students
Slide 43
Target Populations as a Percentage of All Adults Age 18-64, 2005
Adult Education & Literacy
25
20
15
North Dakota
Minnesota
New
Connecticut
Hawaii
Vermont
Wisconsin
Massachusetts
Nebraska
Wyoming
Maryland
Iowa
Utah
New Jersey
Colorado
Montana
Washington
Kansas
Virginia
Michigan
South Dakota
Maine
Rhode island
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Alaska
Oregon
Delaware
Ohio
New York
Dist of Col
Indiana
Missouri
United States
Idaho
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Georgia
Nevada
California
South Carolina
Tennessee
New Mexico
Kentucky
Alabama
West Virginia
Louisiana
Texas
Arkansas
Mississippi
0
13.6
13.6
15.0
15.9
16.1
16.2
16.8
16.9
17.3
17.4
17.5
17.9
17.9
18.4
18.4
18.6
18.7
18.8
19.4
19.6
20.0
20.1
20.2
20.8
20.9
21.2
21.2
21.5
21.9
22.7
22.9
22.9
23.1
23.5
24.2
24.6
25.8
25.9
25.9
26.3
27.1
27.2
27.5
28.2
28.9
29.0
29.3
29.7
29.9
30.3
30.5
32.4
30
ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less, No or Poor Ability to Speak English
High School Diploma, Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL)
Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL)
35
10
5
slide 44
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; PUMS
Note: Incarcerated population not separated out.
20
0
26.6
25.1
24.9
24.7
24.2
24.0
23.8
23.6
23.5
23.3
23.3
23.1
23.1
22.9
22.8
22.7
22.7
22.5
22.5
22.4
22.0
21.8
21.7
21.6
21.5
21.4
21.1
21.0
21.0
20.9
20.9
20.8
20.7
20.2
20.1
20.0
19.9
19.6
19.5
19.4
19.3
19.2
19.2
18.5
17.9
17.2
16.8
16.8
16.8
15.5
15.5
25
Alaska
Utah
Idaho
Wyoming
Montana
Michigan
Oklahoma
New Mexico
North Dakota
Nebraska
Nevada
Kansas
Hawaii
Arkansas
Oregon
Washington
Arizona
Alabama
Minnesota
Missouri
Iowa
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Indiana
Tennessee
Mississippi
Kentucky
Texas
Louisiana
North Carolina
Ohio
Delaware
Colorado
United States
West Virginia
Illinois
Georgia
California
Maryland
Maine
Virginia
South Carolina
Florida
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Connecticut
New Jersey
Vermont
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
New York
30
Percent of the Adult Population, Age 25-44 with
Some College But No Degree, 2007
15
10
5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey; Tables
B15001 and C15001
Slide 45
35
30
25
0
35.0
35.0
34.8
34.6
33.9
33.7
33.1
32.9
32.6
32.4
32.0
31.7
31.6
31.3
30.9
30.8
30.8
30.4
30.4
30.3
29.9
29.8
29.5
29.4
29.4
29.2
28.9
28.4
28.3
27.7
27.6
27.5
27.3
27.3
27.3
27.1
26.7
26.7
26.5
26.3
26.3
26.2
25.9
24.8
24.3
24.1
24.0
23.8
23.1
23.0
39.6
40
West Virginia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Arkansas
Tennessee
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Vermont
Indiana
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Delaware
Alaska
Montana
Nevada
Missouri
Florida
Alabama
Wyoming
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Georgia
New Hampshire
Idaho
Michigan
Hawaii
New Jersey
United States
North Carolina
South Dakota
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Texas
Iowa
Virginia
Oregon
Arizona
Kansas
Utah
New York
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Washington
North Dakota
Colorado
California
Minnesota
Nebraska
45
Percent of the Adult Population, Age 25-44 with a
High School Diploma But No College, 2007
20
15
10
5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey; Tables
B15001 and C15001
Slide 46
5
0
3.9
10
17.9
17.6
16.9
16.6
16.1
15.5
14.8
14.4
14.1
13.8
13.8
13.4
13.3
13.3
13.2
12.6
12.6
12.5
12.1
11.6
11.6
11.4
10.9
10.6
10.4
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.5
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.3
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.5
6.2
5.9
15
19.5
19.4
20
California
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Mississippi
Louisiana
New Mexico
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Florida
Oklahoma
United States
Oregon
West Virginia
Rhode Island
New York
Indiana
Illinois
Colorado
Washington
Missouri
Idaho
Delaware
Virginia
Kansas
Utah
Michigan
Maryland
New Jersey
Ohio
Nebraska
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
South Dakota
Wyoming
Montana
Alaska
Iowa
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Maine
Vermont
Hawaii
North Dakota
25
Percent of the Adult Population, Age 25-44 with
Less than a High School Diploma, 2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey; Tables
B15001 and C15001
Slide 47
Enrollment of Residents Age 25-49 as a Percentage of
those Residents with a High School Diploma
but No College, 2005
40.1
7.5
7.6
8.5
8.6
9.0
9.1
9.6
9.6
9.7
10.5
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.9
10.9
11.1
11.1
11.4
12.0
12.0
12.2
12.8
12.9
13.0
13.1
13.2
13.7
13.9
14.0
14.0
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.5
14.7
14.7
14.8
15.0
15.1
16.1
16.7
16.9
17.0
17.7
18.6
19.8
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
West Virginia
Vermont
Tennessee
South Carolina
Connecticut
Maine
Delaware
New Jersey
Mississippi
Massachusetts
Ohio
Arkansas
Georgia
Indiana
Montana
New York
Alabama
Rhode Island
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Hawaii
Virginia
Missouri
Nevada
Florida
North Carolina
Wyoming
South Dakota
United States
Texas
Oklahoma
Michigan
Idaho
Alaska
Maryland
Kansas
Minnesota
Nebraska
Oregon
Iowa
North Dakota
Washington
Illinois
Colorado
New Mexico
California
Utah
Arizona
0
22.0
23.2
24.1
25
20
15
10
5
slide 48
Source: NCES, IPEDS Enrollment Survey; U.S. Census Bureau 2005 ACS
Enrollment of Residents Age 16-24 in State-Administered
Adult Education Programs per 1,000 Residents Age 16-24 with Less
than a High School Diploma, 2005
606
63
92
95
109
116
118
139
150
152
153
176
181
185
186
190
192
192
195
195
206
207
208
212
219
220
226
229
231
236
245
251
272
278
296
298
308
320
321
322
339
341
361
365
380
381
405
429
446
481
Nevada
Arizona
Colorado
Texas
Massachusett
Michigan
Virginia
Idaho
New Jersey
Alabama
Maryland
Kansas
Oregon
Ohio
New
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Montana
Washington
Missouri
Iowa
Wyoming
New York
Rhode Island
Alaska
South Dakota
West Virginia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Delaware
Wisconsin
Mississippi
United States
New Mexico
Indiana
Nebraska
Georgia
Illinois
Tennessee
Dis of Col
Maine
Utah
Vermont
South Carolina
California
Minnesota
Arkansas
North Carolina
North Dakota
Hawaii
Connecticut
Florida
0
533
600
788
800
700
500
400
300
200
100
*Age 16-24 with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Slide 49
Enrollment of Residents Age 25-44 in State-Administered
Adult Education Programs per 1,000 Residents Age 25-44 with Less
than a High School Diploma, 2005
213
66
68
70
71
73
74
75
76
77
79
80
80
82
84
85
85
86
87
89
89
93
94
94
95
96
98
103
107
107
115
123
127
128
129
138
139
141
146
153
158
168
38
42
48
48
52
52
54
55
Alabama
Nevada
Texas
Colorado
Arizona
Kansas
Louisiana
Vermont
Michigan
Virginia
Montana
Idaho
West Virginia
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Ohio
North Dakota
Mississippi
Indiana
Wyoming
Oregon
Dis of Col
Iowa
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Kentucky
New Jersey
South Dakota
Delaware
Wisconsin
Missouri
New
Rhode Island
Georgia
United States
Nebraska
Alaska
Maine
North Carolina
New York
Hawaii
Washington
New Mexico
California
Illinois
Arkansas
Connecticut
South Carolina
Utah
Florida
Minnesota
0
187
200
250
250
150
100
50
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Slide 50
Mississippi GEDs Awarded per 1,000 Adults with Less than
a High School Diploma or Equivalent by Age Group, 2006
89.0
15.0
15
10
5
3.4
0.2
0
Age 16-24*
Age 25-34
Age 35-49
Age 50 and Older
*Age 16-24 with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled
Source: GED Testing Service, U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
Slide 51
GEDs Awarded to Adults Age 16-24 per 1,000 Adults Age 16-24* with
Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005
183
185
62
63
68
70
70
71
74
75
76
78
79
82
84
84
85
88
92
92
94
95
96
100
105
106
106
106
106
109
109
110
110
114
117
117
120
121
123
125
128
129
130
138
141
141
153
156
31
33
Delaware
California
Texas
Nevada
South Carolina
Maryland
New Jersey
Arizona
Michigan
Louisiana
North Carolina
Alabama
Illinois
Connecticut
Missouri
Ohio
United States
New Hampshire
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Rhode Island
Georgia
Mississippi
Florida
Oklahoma
Washington
Kentucky
New Mexico
Idaho
Colorado
Dis of Col
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Tennessee
New York
Kansas
Minnesota
Massachusetts
Oregon
West Virginia
Arkansas
Utah
South Dakota
Virginia
Wyoming
Maine
Alaska
Montana
Hawaii
Vermont
North Dakota
0
202
225
340
150
75
*Age 16-24 with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled
Source: GED Testing Service, U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
Slide 52
GEDs Awarded to Adults Age 25-34 per 1,000 Adults Age 25-34 with
Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005
35
35
31
32
25
25
25
25
26
27
29
30
23
23
23
12
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
15
15
15
16
17
17
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
20
20
20
21
21
9
9
10
11
6
California
Dis of Col
Nevada
Delaware
Texas
South Carolina
Alabama
Maryland
Vermont
Michigan
Florida
Rhode Island
Massachusett
United States
Illinois
North Carolina
New Jersey
Arizona
Connecticut
New Mexico
Colorado
New York
Kansas
Oregon
Hawaii
Utah
Georgia
Nebraska
Louisiana
Mississippi
Idaho
Indiana
Missouri
Pennsylvania
Washington
Arkansas
New
Virginia
Minnesota
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Tennessee
Ohio
Kentucky
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Maine
North Dakota
Alaska
0
39
40
30
20
10
Source: GED Testing Service, U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
Slide 53
Distribution of GEDs Awarded by Age Group,
1990 and 2006 (Percent)
Mississippi
30
1990
25
2006
21.7
20.0 20.0
20
17.6 17.3
15
14.0
12.1
10
10.210.6
9.8
9.0
9.6
6.9
6.2
5.1
5
2.6
3.1
2.6
0.6
0.3
0.5 0.2
0
Age:
16
17
18
19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-49
50-59
60+
Source: GED Testing Service
Slide 54
Making Progress in Spite of
Constrained Resources:
Is it Possible?
Productivity improvements as a partial solution – it’s
not just the amount of money, it’s how it’s used.
Slide 55
Productivity: Total Funding per Degree/Certificate
(Weighted*, 2006-2007)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
29,075
30,619
33,273
33,756
34,330
34,594
36,498
37,823
38,364
38,365
39,516
39,516
39,918
42,177
42,198
42,408
42,693
42,847
42,873
42,948
43,820
44,272
44,371
45,833
45,904
46,522
46,880
47,453
47,672
47,749
48,611
49,894
52,491
52,572
52,888
53,535
54,553
56,090
56,280
56,888
56,960
59,420
59,465
63,822
64,934
65,975
66,623
72,846
75,744
79,794
86,009
100,000
Tuition and Fees
State and Local
20,000
10,000
-
Alaska
Wyoming
Delaware
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Vermont
Maryland
Nevada
New York
Alabama
Pennsylvania
Maine
California
New Mexico
Tennessee
Michigan
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Nebraska
Indiana
Ohio
Nation
Missouri
Virginia
Iowa
Kentucky
Oregon
Minnesota
Arkansas
Arizona
Mississippi
Illinois
New Hampshire
Idaho
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Georgia
Kansas
South Dakota
Montana
West Virginia
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Utah
Washington
Colorado
Florida
Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
*Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level)
slide 56
Degrees & Certificates awarded per FTE vs. Total Funding
per FTE (2006-2007)
32
Low Resources, High Production
High Resources, High Production
CO
29
UT
OK
FL
KY
WA
26
Performance:
Degrees
Awarded per
100 FTE 23
KS WI
SDGA MN
AZ
ND
WV
MT
LA
NH
IA
CT
MI
IDIL
VA IN
OH SC
US
NE
TX TN
AR OR
MS MO
PA
ME AL MD
VT
HI
NJ
MA
NY
DE
WY
AK
NC NM
20
RI
NV
17
CA
Low Resources, Low Production
14
5,000
8,000
High Resources, Low Production
11,000
14,000
17,000
20,000
Resources: Total Funding per FTE
Source: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008: NCES IPEDS Completions Survey
slide 57
Performance: Undergraduate Degrees Awarded
Per 100 Full-Time Equivalent Students
Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions, Enrollment and Finance Surveys
Slide 58
Performance Relative to Funding: Bachelors Degrees
Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates
(Public Research Institutions)
27
CT
WA
UT
CA
Performance (2006-07)
IL
24
FL
MO
OR TX
MD
PA
OK
21
GA
VA US
CO
OH
KS
WI
NH
MS
ID
IN
AZ
ND
NM
18
MT
SD
15
5,000
10,000
LA
MI
NE
IA
DE
NVTN
RI
WV
HI
MA
WY
SC NJ
ME
NY
NC
VT MN
KY
AL
AR
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Total Funding per FTE (2006-07)
Source: NCES, IPEDS
slide 59
Performance Relative to Funding: Bachelors Degrees
Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates
(Public Bachelors and Masters)
30
WA
25
NJ
Performance (2006-07)
IL
KS CA
OR
20
MD
VA
NY
IA
ME
RI
NH SC
WI
MN
FL
US
NE TX
MA
ND
MI
MO
TN
MS VTPA
AL
KY
WV
MT
AR
GA
OK
CO
AZ
15
SD
LA
NC
NM
DE
INID
NV
10
HI
CT
OH
UT
AK
5
2,000
5,000
8,000
11,000
14,000
17,000
20,000
Total Funding per FTE (2006-07)
Source: NCES, IPEDS
slide 60
Performance Relative to Funding: All Credentials Awarded per
100 FTE Undergraduates
(Public Two-Year Institutions)
48
KY
40
Performance (2006-07)
SD
WI
LA
ND
GA
32
MN
AZ
24
MS
MO
16
OK
IN TN
VA
KS
NH
FL
AR
CO SC IAWA
MT
IL
VT
NC UT
US
NE
ME
AL OH
NJ
DE
ID
MA
HI
NMMI NY
TX PA
CA
ORCT
RI
WY
MD
AK
NV
8
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Total Funding per FTE (2006-07)
Source: NCES, IPEDS
slide 61