Transcript Slide 1

CCCCIO Conference
Student Success
Through Quality
Educational Practices
Institutionalizing
Continuous Quality
Improvements (CQI)
San Diego, California
October 28, 2010
Presentation by:
David Longanecker
President, Western
Interstate Commission
for Higher Education
(WICHE)
Institutionalizing
Whopping Big
Quality
Improvements
(WBQI)
& The CIO’s Role
Why The Title Change
Total Quality Management – Continuous
Improvement
Booz-Allen: Stable State Management System
Not a crisis management strategy
Your challenge
50 percent productivity gain almost
immediately
Productivity gain = Quality improvement
Moving To A New Business Model
50% Doesn’t Happen With Incremental
Change.
Einstein’s definition of insanity: “Doing the
same thing over and over again and expecting
different results.”
Not throwing all out, and starting anew,
But almost!
Your term – “substantive change”
The Case for Whopping Big Change
The Case for Change
AASCU’s TOP TEN ISSUES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
State’s Fiscal Crises
President Obama’s American Graduation Initiative
Tuition Policy and Prices
Enrollment Capacity
State Student Aid Programs
Federal Focus on Community Colleges
Expansion of Statewide Data Systems & New Reporting
Metrics
Veterans Education
College Readiness
Teacher Effectiveness
The Case for Change
AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised
The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy
& Prices, Student Aid
Student Access & Success: Enrollment
Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation
Initiative
Educational Improvement: College Readiness,
Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher
Effectiveness
Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting
Metrics.
The Case for Change
AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised
The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy
& Prices, Student Aid
Student Access & Success: Enrollment
Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation
Initiative
Educational Improvement: College Readiness,
Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher
Effectiveness
Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting
Metrics.
The Case for Change
AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised
The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy
& Prices, Student Aid
Student Access & Success: Enrollment
Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation
Initiative
Educational Improvement: College Readiness,
Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher
Effectiveness
Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting
Metrics.
The Case for Change
AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised
The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy
& Prices, Student Aid
Student Access & Success: Enrollment
Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation
Initiative
Educational Improvement: College Readiness,
Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher
Effectiveness
Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting
Metrics.
The Case for Change
AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised
The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy
& Prices, Student Aid
Student Access & Success: Enrollment
Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation
Initiative
Educational Improvement: College Readiness,
Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher
Effectiveness
Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting
Metrics.
The Case for Incremental Change
A World of Change
Financing the Enterprise
Europe and the US – Hurting
The Rest – No Problem
Student Access
Asia Expanding
Europe Filling Emptying Seats (AEBE)
In the U.S.
Heavy policy thrust to “access to success”,
But subtle erosion of access in some places (CA)
The Case for Incremental Change
A World of Change
Educational Improvement
The Bologna Process
International Comparisons/ Building the Best
In U.S.
focus on completion
emerging agenda on student learning outcomes
Accountability
Around the World --OECD Comparisons, AHELO
In U.S.
focus on aligning with “educational improvement”
efforts
thrust toward performance funding
The Case for Whopping Big Change
An Emerging Perfect Storm
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
The Liberal Borrowings
Knocking on the College Door (WICHE)
Beyond Social Justice (WICHE)
National Center for Higher Education
Management Systems (NCHEMS) :
www.higheredinfo.org.
State Higher Education Executive Officers
(SHEEO), SHEF Report, February 2010.
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
Relationship Between Educational Attainment,
Personal Income, and Economic Strength
$30,000
High Income, Low Educational Attainment
High Income, High Educational Attainment
CT
State New Economy Index (2002)
Top Tier
Personal Income Per Capita, 2000
Middle Tier
NJ
Low Tier
MA
MD
$25,000
NH VA
DE
CA
AK
NV
FL
OH
IN
$20,000
TN
SC
AL
KY
WV
AR
OK
LA
MI
US
WI GA
OR
PA
NC AZ
MO
IA ME
WY TX
ID
SD
NM
15%
20%
NY MN
WA
HI RI
VT
KS
NE
UT
ND
MS
Low Income, Low Educational Attainment
$15,000
IL
CO
25%
MT
Low Income, High Educational Attainment
30%
35%
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Source: NCHEMS
40%
40
35
30
25
20
0
37.4
37.4
37.0
36.5
35.9
35.4
34.5
34.4
33.6
32.7
32.2
31.7
31.3
31.1
30.7
30.3
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.0
28.9
28.5
28.3
27.7
27.5
27.4
27.3
27.3
27.1
27.0
26.7
26.6
26.3
26.3
26.0
25.8
25.6
24.6
24.3
24.2
23.9
23.5
23.0
22.1
21.7
21.6
20.7
20.2
19.0
41.3
45
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Maryland
New Jersey
Colorado
Virginia
Vermont
New Hampshire
New York
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Illinois
Washington
Hawaii
Kansas
California
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oregon
Utah
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Maine
Montana
Wisconsin
Delaware
Florida
South Dakota
North Carolina
Iowa
Missouri
Michigan
Alaska
Texas
Ohio
Arizona
Idaho
New Mexico
South Carolina
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Indiana
Tennessee
Alabama
Nevada
Kentucky
Louisiana
Arkansas
Mississippi
West Virginia
Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with a
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
15
10
5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS
8
6
0
5.1
10
11.9
11.3
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.3
9.1
9.1
9.0
9.0
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.0
8.0
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.5
12
North Dakota
Hawaii
Wyoming
Iowa
South Dakota
Minnesota
Nebraska
Washington
New Hampshire
Maine
Wisconsin
Utah
Florida
Idaho
Vermont
North Carolina
New York
Alaska
Michigan
South Carolina
Delaware
Oregon
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Montana
Kansas
Ohio
Mississippi
Connecticut
Indiana
Massachusetts
Colorado
Illinois
New Mexico
California
Nevada
Alabama
Oklahoma
Missouri
Virginia
West Virginia
Kentucky
Maryland
Georgia
New Jersey
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Louisiana
14.2
Percent of Population Ages 25-64
with an Associate Degree
16
14
4
2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher)
Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD
Countries, 2005
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and
Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S.,
2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
The White Caps on the First Wave
We’ve Been A Leader
But Slip-Sliding Away
Losing Ground:
The West, and California in particular, are the U.S.
Problem
Falling Internationally
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
WICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School
Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
WICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School
Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
High School Graduation Rates - Public High
School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four
Years Earlier, 2006
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS
College-Going Rates – First-Time Freshmen
Directly Out of High School as a Percent of
Recent High School Graduates, 2006
75
50
25
Arizona
Idaho
Utah
Alaska
Oregon
Nevada
Washington
Rhode Island
Texas
Vermont
California
Arkansas
Missouri
West Virginia
Montana
Wyoming
Hawaii
Oklahoma
Florida
Ohio
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Nation
Alabama
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS
Colorado
Tennessee
Delaware
South Carolina
Maine
Nebraska
New Hampshire
Michigan
Louisiana
Maryland
North Carolina
Kansas
Georgia
Virginia
New Jersey
Minnesota
Connecticut
New Mexico
South Dakota
Massachusetts
New York
North Dakota
Mississippi
0
Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/
Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with
an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000
40
30
20
10
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census), Via NCHEMS
Patterns of U.S. High School and College Participation
and Completion by Age (Average Annual from 2005 to 2007)
100%
Not Much Happens After the Age of 24
80%
High School Participation
Earn High School Diploma or Equivalent – Levels off at Age 21
We are left with 13 percent of adults
with no high school diploma, and 60
percent with no college degree.
60%
Undergraduate College Participation – Peaks at Age 19,
Levels off at Age 30
40%
Complete Undergraduate College Degree – Peaks
and Levels off at Age 31
20%
0%
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Note: Includes associate and bachelor’s degrees, but not certificates.
AGE
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)
The White Caps on the Second Wave
Those with whom we have succeeded are
declining
Those with whom we have not succeeded
are increasing
“Average” won’t sustain us, and may not
even be achievable
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
Life could have been worse
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations
and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2008
Source: SHEEO, SHEF 2008
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition,
State, & Local Appropriations Public Research
$35,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
Colorado
Montana
South Dakota
Oregon
Mississippi
Louisiana
Texas
New Hampshire
North Dakota
Florida
Illinois
Arkansas
Arizona
West Virginia
Ohio
Nevada
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Utah
Georgia
Virginia
Kansas
Rhode Island
Missouri
Michigan
Indiana
Idaho
Nation
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Maine
South Carolina
Washington
Tennessee
New Jersey
Delaware
Iowa
California
Alabama
Nebraska
Maryland
Wyoming
Kentucky
Massachusetts
North Carolina
Vermont
New York
Connecticut
Hawaii
Minnesota
Alaska
$0
$9,682
$11,243
$11,620
$12,324
$12,449
$12,666
$13,121
$13,675
$14,006
$14,018
$14,777
$14,865
$15,003
$15,093
$15,125
$15,180
$15,406
$15,541
$15,568
$15,714
$15,774
$15,837
$16,057
$16,059
$16,092
$16,155
$16,172
$16,195
$16,275
$16,774
$16,974
$17,267
$17,360
$17,610
$18,537
$18,657
$18,773
$18,843
$18,989
$19,227
$19,545
$19,721
$19,783
$19,865
$20,010
$21,384
$21,640
$22,095
$23,263
$24,184
$25,000
$29,172
$30,000
$5,000
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State,
& Local Appropriations Public Masters and Baccalaureate
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$5,105
$6,311
$7,209
$7,877
$7,964
$8,400
$8,414
$8,748
$8,846
$8,959
$9,185
$9,410
$9,622
$9,630
$9,701
$9,702
$9,933
$9,945
$9,957
$10,039
$10,162
$10,179
$10,251
$10,275
$10,312
$10,343
$10,370
$10,405
$10,464
$10,721
$10,778
$10,788
$10,836
$11,063
$11,249
$11,266
$11,284
$11,389
$11,443
$11,443
$11,862
$12,011
$12,105
$12,324
$12,929
$13,683
$14,426
$14,440
$14,587
$16,148
$17,984
$20,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Colorado
Utah
Arizona
South Dakota
West Virginia
Georgia
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Nevada
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Arkansas
North Dakota
Oregon
Tennessee
Indiana
Texas
Minnesota
New Hampshire
California
Pennsylvania
Kansas
DC
Missouri
Idaho
Nation
Mississippi
Ohio
Kentucky
South Carolina
Michigan
Florida
New York
Washington
Illinois
Montana
Alabama
Rhode Island
Virginia
Vermont
Maine
Massachusetts
Maryland
Iowa
New Mexico
New Jersey
Alaska
North Carolina
Connecticut
Hawaii
Delaware
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition,
State, & Local Appropriations Public 2-Year
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
West Virginia
Kentucky
Indiana
Colorado
South Dakota
Virginia
Mississippi
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
Oklahoma
New Jersey
Arkansas
Iowa
Tennessee
Louisiana
Missouri
Nebraska
Illinois
Alabama
Nevada
Maine
Washington
California
Montana
Nation
Texas
North Carolina
Utah
Ohio
Rhode Island
Arizona
Minnesota
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Alaska
New Mexico
Massachusetts
Idaho
New Hampshire
New York
Oregon
Kansas
Vermont
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland
Wyoming
Hawaii
Wisconsin
$0
$3,369
$4,000
$5,297
$5,517
$5,712
$5,939
$5,945
$5,970
$6,028
$6,082
$6,353
$6,465
$6,510
$6,630
$6,676
$6,714
$6,823
$6,844
$6,895
$6,918
$7,018
$7,117
$7,222
$7,239
$7,329
$7,403
$7,416
$7,432
$7,448
$7,507
$7,509
$7,566
$7,633
$7,772
$8,044
$8,067
$8,214
$8,378
$8,411
$8,449
$8,480
$8,625
$8,705
$8,801
$8,844
$9,125
$9,953
$9,964
$10,287
$10,683
$11,197
$12,000
$14,793
$16,000
$14,000
$2,000
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
-6
-8
-10
-12
Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 Via NCHEMS
-10.6
-10.8
-10.9
-4
-2.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.3
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.9
-3
-3.3
-3.5
-3.5
-3.8
-4.1
-4.6
-4.7
-4.8
-4.9
-5
-5.1
-5.2
-5.4
-5.7
-5.7
-5.8
-5.8
-6
-6.2
-6.3
-6.3
-6.7
-6.7
-6.8
-7.2
-7.4
-7.8
-8
-8.1
-8.1
-8.5
-8.5
-8.5
-8.7
-8.9
-9.1
-9.4
-9.5
-9.7
Maryland
Maine
Vermont
New Jersey
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Massachusetts
Michigan
Wyoming
California
Ohio
Delaware
Kansas
Oregon
Virginia
New York
Minnesota
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Alaska
Nebraska
Montana
United States
Louisiana
Indiana
Hawaii
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Missouri
Kentucky
Iowa
South Dakota
Washington
Florida
South Carolina
Arkansas
Georgia
Colorado
Tennessee
North Carolina
Idaho
Utah
Arizona
Nevada
Alabama
Texas
Mississippi
Projected State and Local Budget Surplus
(Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016
0
-2
State Tax Capacity & Effort
Indexed to U.S. Average
State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita)
1.7
DE
1.6
1.5
1.4
CT
NJ
1.3
MA
AK
1.2
NH
1.1
1.0
WY
MD
VA
CO
NV
IL
WA
NY
MN
CA
USNE
PA
SD
0.9
TN
0.8
RI
WI
NC
GA
KS
HI
MOFL IN IA
OH
VT
OR TX
AZ ND
MI
UT KY
SC
ID
NM
LA
AL
OK
WV
MT
AR
0.7
ME
MS
0.6
0.6
0.8
1.0
State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)
1.2
1.4
Productivity: Total Funding per
Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
29,075
30,619
33,273
33,756
34,330
34,594
36,498
37,823
38,364
38,365
39,516
39,516
39,918
42,177
42,198
42,408
42,693
42,847
42,873
42,948
43,820
44,272
44,371
45,833
45,904
46,522
46,880
47,453
47,672
47,749
48,611
49,894
52,491
52,572
52,888
53,535
54,553
56,090
56,280
56,888
56,960
59,420
59,465
63,822
64,934
65,975
66,623
72,846
75,744
79,794
86,009
100,000
Tuition and Fees
State and Local
20,000
10,000
-
Alaska
Wyoming
Delaware
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Vermont
Maryland
Nevada
New York
Alabama
Pennsylvania
Maine
California
New Mexico
Tennessee
Michigan
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Nebraska
Indiana
Ohio
Nation
Missouri
Virginia
Iowa
Kentucky
Oregon
Minnesota
Arkansas
Arizona
Mississippi
Illinois
New Hampshire
Idaho
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Georgia
Kansas
South Dakota
Montana
West Virginia
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Utah
Washington
Colorado
Florida
Sources:
SHEEO
State Higher Education
Finance
Survey 2008;
NCES,
IPEDS
Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau,
*Adjusted for value of degrees
in the
state employment
market (median
earnings
by degree
type
and level)
American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
The White Caps on the Third Wave
Prospects look bleak for much more in the
short term
New Normal suggests a very different
future than past.
Triage often sacrifices the most vulnerable
The California story – Three Huge Converging
Waves -- The Makings of A Perfect Storm
Demographics present a challenge, all else being equal
The finances are perilous
We have been educationally competitive, which has
made us economically competitive and comparative
just, but:
Were slipping
And the good life has not been equitably distribute
Public Policy inconsistent with the times or their
needs
Creating a New Business Model –
What I Hear & See
Who Will Lead – Academic Leaders or
Other Leaders?
From the Community College “Community”
ACCT: Governance Institute fro Student Success.
“Focus on training for trustees & presidents” Ed
week.
Foundations: Achieving the Dream & the like –
mostly top down through data driven reform
Creating a New Business Model –
What I Hear & See
Who Will Lead – Academic Leaders or
Other Leaders?
From Community College Academics
Denial -- “They’re counting wrong”
Dismay – “We’re going down”
Boutique un-scalable “success initiatives”
But, on the bright side
Equity Scorecard work From USC (mostly California)
NCAT work on remedial mathematics (no California)
Hewlett projects (albeit boutique)
New Gates grant – potentially including California
Creating a New Business Model –
What I Hear & See
Other creative ideas on the table
Less is more
Charging Tuition, for God’s sake
Generates revenue
Puts some stake in the game for students
Doesn’t cost the most needy any more
Pricing by priority
Currently in place for resident/non-resident
Why not for core versus luxury
Why not for high-value/high-return programs
Dropping programs with little or no value added
Where success is too low to justify
Where ROI is too low to justify
Creating a New Business Model –
What I Hear & See
TRIAGE happens, whether intentional or not.
Lack of course availability
Low success rates
In remedial/developmental
In college level coursework
Particularly in STEM field
And indefensibly biased by race/ethnicity
Justifiable within current business model
Can’t afford more courses
Can’t support resources necessary for course success
But unjustifiable in support of Community College
Mission
So must create a new business model
Creating a New Business Model –
Dave’s Nine Tenets of A New Way
Evidence based – data driven
Improvement imperative – Whopping big
in the short term, continuous improvement, on benchmarks achieved.
Well, nearly continuous improvement.
Recognize periodic perturbations.
Take reasonable risk & expect some
failure.
Creating a New Business Model –
Tenets of A New Way
Eliminate what can’t be done well enough.
Be genius – borrow generously.
Reward success and champions of success
(make performance count for regular folk).
Make this work fun
We work live, not live to work.
Don’t have too many tenets
That’s all there is; there is no more.
Enough Already