Transcript Slide 1

University of
Denver – Strategic
Issues Panel
The Future of State
Government in
Colorado
Presentation by:
David Longanecker
President, Western
Interstate Commission
for Higher Education
(WICHE)
Public Higher Education:
Public Trust, Private
Investment, or Lost
Cause!
The Colorado Story
A Perfect Situation
University of
Denver – Strategic
Issues Panel
The Future of State
Government in
Colorado
Presentation by:
David Longanecker
President, Western
Interstate Commission
for Higher Education
(WICHE)
Public Higher Education:
Public Trust, Private
Investment, or Lost
Cause!
The Colorado Story
A Perfect Situation
Perfect Storm or
Perfect Opportunity
The Perfect Storm:
Three Converging Waves
Wave One: Colorado’s Economic
Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can Colorado
Be Competitive
Wave Three: What Colorado Has in
Resources to Commit to This Venture
The Liberal Borrowings
Knocking on the College Door (WICHE)
Beyond Social Justice (WICHE)
National Center for Higher Education
Management Systems (NCHEMS) :
www.higheredinfo.org.
State Higher Education Executive Officers
(SHEEO), SHEF Report, February 2010.
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Colorado’s Economic
Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can Colorado
Be Competitive
Wave Three: What Colorado Has in
Resources
Relationship Between Educational Attainment,
Personal Income, and Economic Strength
$30,000
High Income, Low Educational Attainment
High Income, High Educational Attainment
CT
State New Economy Index (2002)
Top Tier
Personal Income Per Capita, 2000
Middle Tier
NJ
Low Tier
MA
MD
$25,000
NH VA
DE
CA
AK
NV
FL
OH
IN
$20,000
TN
SC
AL
KY
WV
AR
OK
LA
MI
ID
SD
NM
15%
20%
VT
KS
NE
UT
ND
MS
Low Income, Low Educational Attainment
$15,000
NY MN
WA
HI RI
US
WI GA
OR
PA
NC AZ
MO
IA ME
TX
WY
IL
CO
25%
MT
Low Income, High Educational Attainment
30%
35%
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
40%
Educational Attainment & Personal Income by
Colorado Counties
$70,000
Pitkin
Personal Income per Capita
$60,000
$50,000
Arapahoe
Douglas
Denver
Boulder
$40,000
Eagle
Clear Creek
Gilpin
CO
San Miguel
Summit
Kiowa
Elbert
$30,000
Adams
Garfield
Rio Blanco
Yuma
Kit Carson
Phillips
Sedgwick
Mesa
Logan
Weld
Montrose
Baca
Rio Grande Custer
Montezuma
Otero
Moffat
Morgan
Chaffee
Pueblo
Prowers Dolores
Delta
Alamosa
Washington
Las Animas
Fremont
Archuleta
Lake
Costilla
Jackson
Bent
Jefferson
Huerfano
Saguache
Lincoln
Conejos
Crowley
Cheyenne
$20,000
Larimer
El Paso
Park
Teller
Grand
Ouray
La Plata
San Juan
Gunnison
Mineral
Hinsdale
$10,000
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Adults aged 25 - 64 with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher (%)
55.0%
60.0%
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher)
Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD
Countries, 2005
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and
Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S.,
2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher
by Age Group – Colorado, U.S. & Leading OECD
Countries
Age 25-34
Age 55-64
47.6
44.3
45.8
40.4
37.7
39.6
40.9
39.2
40.8
41.4
41.5
33.2
36.2
34.6
34.8
28.5
16.9
16.0
19.4
22.5
24.9
26.9
30.0
26.8
24.0
19.2
22.9
20
32.8
30.3
30
41.9
42.2
38.1
39.5
43.6
37.5
37.4
40
39.3
43.2
46.2
50
Age 45-54
53.0
54.1
50.8
54.8
60
Age 35-44
10.6
10
0
Canada
Japan
Korea
New
Zealand
Ireland
Belgium Norway
France Denmark
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008
U.S.
Colorado
The White Caps on the First Wave
We’ve Been A Leader
But Slip-Sliding Away
Losing Ground:
Falling Internationally (Comparatively)
Mixed Bag Nationally
One Size Doesn’t Fit All
Two Stories – The Haves & the Have Nots
The Public Policy Response: Thinking
Here & Elsewhere
National/Federal
The President’s Goal – Lead Again by 2020
Increased visibility – Education & Workforce
Gates and Lumina
Regions & Their States
East: Status Quo, more or less
Mid-West: A Mixed Bag
Rhetoric trumps action
South: Investing in Education
But still disconnects
West (and Colorado):
Question the Data
Blame Immigration
Disinvest in Access and Quality
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Colorado’s Economic
Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can Colorado
Be Competitive
Wave Three: What Colorado Has in
Resources
Public & Nonpublic High School
Graduates 1991-92 through 2021-22, Colorado
Actual
Projected
Total = public and non public, all races.
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door
WICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School
Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
WICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School
Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
Difference in Education Attainment
Between Whites and Hispanics (2006, Percent)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File. Via NCHEMS
Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/
Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with
an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census), Via NCHEMS
The White Caps on the Second Wave
Those with whom we have succeeded are
declining
Those with whom we have not succeeded
are increasing
“Average” won’t sustain us, and may not
even be achievable
And, One Size Doesn’t Fit All
Really Two Stories – The Haves & the Have
Nots
The Public Policy Response: Here
and Elsewhere
The Good News
National Consensus Efforts
Complete College America (Colorado is in)
NGA focus area for New Governors
Equity focus – Nevada, Wisconsin
An emerging “Change” agenda – Metro state/NCAT
The Other News – Same Old, same old
Mission creep
Focus on highest achieving (financial aid & enrolment
protections)
Challenges to diversity & diverse populations
Whining trumps Changing -- it’s “their” fault
Students for not being smart
States for not being supportive
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Colorado’s Economic
Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can Colorado
Be Competitive
Wave Three: What Colorado Has in
Resources
Life could have been worse
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations
and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2009
Source: SHEEO, SHEF 2009
But not in Colorado
State/Local
Funding plus
Tuition Revenues
per Student
Public
FTE Enrollment,
Educational
Appropriations
and (FTE)
Colorado Public Institutions, 1983 - 2008
Total Educational
Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2008
180
$12,000
160
$10,000
$4,706
$6,000
80
$4,213
$4,075
$3,965
$3,681
$3,626
20
$3,991
$5,245
$5,613
$5,513
$5,465
$5,468
$5,413
$5,248
$4,961
$4,871
$4,833
$4,890
$5,101
$5,214
$5,350
$5,453
$5,493
$5,420
$5,276
40
$4,000
$5,052
60
Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $)
Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $)
Note: Constant 2008 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment. (HECA) Source: SHEEO SHEF
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
$0
1983
0
$2,000
Public FTE Enrollment
Dollars per FTE
$5,703
$5,155
$5,434
$5,027
$5,269
$8,000
$4,644
$4,600
$4,546
$4,698
$4,676
$4,688
$4,707
$4,541
$4,389
$4,356
$4,105
$3,873
$3,673
$3,801
$3,694
$3,753
$3,629
$3,526
$3,257
100
$3,255
120
$4,946
Public FTE Enrollment
(Thousands)
140
Rankings and Trends in State/Local Funding per Student (FTE)
Divergence from U.S. Average in 2008 and past 25 years
Rankings and Trends in State/Local Funding per Student (FTE)
Divergence from U.S. Average in 2008 and past 25 years
Alabam a
Al a ska
Ari zo n a
Arka n sa s
C a l i f o rn i a
C o l o ra d o
C o n n e cti cu t
D e l a w a re
Fl o ri d a
Ge o r g i a
Hawaii
Id a h o
Il l i n o i s
In d i a n a
Io w a
Ka n sa s
Ke n tu cky
L o u i si a n a
Ma i n e
M a ry l a n d
Ma ssa ch u se tts
Mich ig a n
Mi n n e so ta
Mississip p i
Mi sso u ri
M o n ta n a
N e b ra ska
N e va d a
N e w H a m p sh i re
N e w Je rse y
N e w Me xi co
N e w Yo rk
N o rth C a ro l i n a
N o r th D a k o ta
Oh i o
Okl a h o m a
Ore g o n
Pe n n sylva n ia
Rh o d e Isl a n d
So u th C a ro l i n a
So u th D a ko ta
Te n n e sse e
Te xa s
U ta h
Ve rm o n t
Vi rg i n i a
Wa sh i n g to n
We st Vi rg i n i a
Wi sco n si n
Wy o m i n g
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Al a b a m a
Al a ska
Ari zo n a
Arka n sa s
C a l i f o rn i a
C o l o ra d o
Rankings and Trends
State/Local
Funding per Student (FTE)
C o n nin
e cti
cu t
Divergence fromDU.S.
in 2008 and past 25 years
e l a wAverage
a re
Fl o ri d a
Ge o rg i a
Hawaii
Id a h o
Il l i n o i s
In d i a n a
Io w a
Ka n sa s
25 Year Average Dif f erence
Ke n tu cky
L o u i si a n a
FY 2008 Dif f erence
Ma i n e
Ma ryl a n d
Ma ssa ch u se tts
Mi ch i g a n
Mi n n e so ta
Mi ssi ssi p p i
Mi sso u ri
Mo n ta n a
N e b ra ska
N e va d a
N e w H a m p sh i re
N e w Je rse y
N e w Me xi co
N e w Yo rk
N o rth C a ro l i n a
N o rth D a ko ta
Oh i o
Okl a h o m a
Ore g o n
Pe n n syl va n i a
Rh o d e Isl a n d
So u th C a ro l i n a
So u th D a ko ta
Te n n e sse e
Te xa s
U ta h
Ve rm o n t
Vi rg i n i a
Wa sh i n g to n
We st Vi rg i n i a
Wi sco n si n
Wyo m i n g
-$6,000
25 Year Average Dif f erence
FY 2008 Dif f erence
25 Year Average Dif ference
FY 2008 Dif ference
-$4,000
-$2,000
$0
-$6,000
-$4,000
$2,000
$4,000
-$2,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
Note:
All dollars
are adjusted
by HECA,Mix.
Cost of Living Adjustment, and Enrollment Mix.
Note: All dollars are adjusted by HECA, Cost
of Living
Adjustment,
and Enrollment
Source: SHEEO SHEF
$6,000
$6,000
$10,000
Constant
Dollar$8,000
Difference
from U.S. Average
Constant Dollar Difference from U.S.
Average
Source: SHEEO SHEF
$8,000
$10,000
Rankings and Trends in Core Revenues per Student
Divergence from U.S. average in 2008 and past 25 years
Rankings and Trends in Core Revenues per Student
Divergence from U.S. average in 2008 and past 25 years
Al a b a m a
Al a ska
Ari zo n a
Arka n sa s
C aRankings
l i f o rn i a
and Trends in Core Revenues per Student
CDivergence
o l o ra d o
from U.S. average in 2008 and past 25 years
C o n n e cti cu t
D e l a w a re
Fl o ri d a
Al a b a m a
Ge o rg i a
Al a ska
Ari zo n a
25 Year Average Dif f erence
Hawaii
Arka n sa s
Id a h o
FY 2008 Dif f erence
C a l i f o rn i a
Il l i n o i s
C o l o ra d o
In d i a n a
C o n n e cti cu t
Io w a
D e l a w a re
Fl o ri d a
Ka n sa s
Ge o rg i a
Ke n tu cky
25 Year Average Dif f erence
Hawaii
L o u i si a n a
Id a h o
FY 2008 Dif f erence
Ma i n e
Il l i n o i s
Ma ryl a n d
In d i a n a
Io w a Ma ssa ch u se tts
Ka n sa s
Mi ch i g a n
Ke n tu cky
Mi n n e so ta
L o u i si a n a
Mi ssi ssi p p i
Ma i n e
Mi sso u ri
Ma ryl a n d
Ma ssa ch u se tts
Mo n ta n a
Mi ch i g a n
N e b ra ska
Mi n n e so ta
N e va d a
Mi ssi ssi p p i
Mi sso u riN e w H a m p sh i re
N e w Je rse y
Mo n ta n a
N e w Me xi co
N e b ra ska
N e va d a
N e w Yo rk
N e w H a m p sh i re N o rth C a ro l i n a
N e w Je rse y
N o rth D a ko ta
N e w Me xi co
Oh i o
N e w Yo rk
Okl a h o m a
N o rth C a ro l i n a
N o rth D a ko ta
Ore g o n
Oh i o Pe n n syl va n i a
Okl a h o m a
Rh o d e Isl a n d
Ore g o n
Pe n n syl va n i a So u th C a ro l i n a
Rh o d e Isl a n d So u th D a ko ta
So u th C a ro l i n a
Te n n e sse e
So u th D a ko ta
Te xa s
Te n n e sse e
U ta h
Te xa s
Ve rm o n t
U ta h
Vi rg i n i a
Ve rm o n t
Wa sh i n g to n
Vi rg i n i a
Wa sh i n g to n We st Vi rg i n i a
We st Vi rg i n i a
Wi sco n si n
Wi sco n si n
Wyo m i n g
Wyo m i n g
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
25 Year Average Difference
FY 2008 Difference
-$1,000 $2,000
$0
-$3,000 -$2,000 -$3,000
-$1,000 -$2,000
$0
$1,000
$1,000 $4,000
$2,000 $5,000
$3,000 $6,000
$4,000 $7,000
$5,000
$3,000
$6,000
$7,000
Note: All dollars are
adjusted
by HECA,
Cost of Living
Adjustment,
Enrollment
Mix. and
TotalEnrollment
educational
revenue
Note:
All dollars
are adjusted
by HECA,
Cost ofand
Living
Adjustment,
Mix.
Total educational revenue
does not include net
tuition
for debt
service.
does
notrevenue
include used
net tuition
revenue
used for debt service.
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition,
State, & Local Appropriations Public Research
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State,
& Local Appropriations Public Masters and Baccalaureate
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition,
State, & Local Appropriations Public 2-Year
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
General Operating Revenues Per Student Available to
Colorado Community Colleges, 2006-07
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
Gen Op Revenues = State + Local + Net Tuition
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Colorado
Mtn
College
Aims CC
Red
Rocks
CC
Arapahoe
CC
CC of
Aurora
Front
Range
CC
Source: NCHEMS NCES IPEDS Finance Survey, 2006-07
Pikes
Peak CC
Morgan
CC
CC of
Denver
Colorado N’eastern
N’western Jr College
CC
Pueblo
CC
Otero Jr
College
Lamar
CC
Projected State and Local Budget Surplus
(Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016
Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 Via NCHEMS
The White Caps on the Third Wave
Prospects look bleak for much more in the
short term
New Normal suggests a very different
future than past.
Triage often sacrifices the most vulnerable
The Public Policy Response: Here
and Elsewhere
A stimulus package that discouraged
innovation and change
 A funding structure that inadequately supports
equity oriented institutions
 Mission creep, which reduces teaching
productivity
 Tax cuts over tax investments

The Colorado story – Three Huge
Converging Waves
Demographics present a challenge, all else being equal
The finances are perilous
We have been educationally competitive, which has
made us economically competitive and comparative
just, but:
Were slipping
And the good life has not been equitably distribute
Public Policy inconsistent with the times or their
needs
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity One: Our Economic
Competitiveness
Opportunity Two: Our Changing
Demographics
Opportunity Three: Our Revenue Base
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity One: Our Economic
Competitiveness

Colorado is relatively wealthy
Among highest Nationally in per capata income
 In the Nation that remains the wealthiest country in
the World. We have “the financial capacity”

The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Two: Our Changing
Demographics
Colorado starts from a reasonably successful
base, over all
Improvements in serving Hispanic students,
will reap huge benefits
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Two: Our Changing
Demographics

Positive Policy Trends

Pay for Outcomes



Evidence based
Many focused on reducing the Gaps
Renewed focus on smart need-based student
financial aid


Preservation
New Initiatives
Less is More in the Curriculum
 Reinvention of Remediation (CAT)
 Broader adoption of the Equity Scorecard
 Federal Initiatives – SAFRA & AGI

The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Three: Our revenue base

Colorado Has A Cost Effective System, so
investments likely to reap results
Productivity: Total Funding per
Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
29,075
30,619
33,273
33,756
34,330
34,594
36,498
37,823
38,364
38,365
39,516
39,516
39,918
42,177
42,198
42,408
42,693
42,847
42,873
42,948
43,820
44,272
44,371
45,833
45,904
46,522
46,880
47,453
47,672
47,749
48,611
49,894
52,491
52,572
52,888
53,535
54,553
56,090
56,280
56,888
56,960
59,420
59,465
63,822
64,934
65,975
66,623
72,846
75,744
79,794
86,009
100,000
Tuition and Fees
State and Local
20,000
10,000
-
Alaska
Wyoming
Delaware
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Vermont
Maryland
Nevada
New York
Alabama
Pennsylvania
Maine
California
New Mexico
Tennessee
Michigan
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Nebraska
Indiana
Ohio
Nation
Missouri
Virginia
Iowa
Kentucky
Oregon
Minnesota
Arkansas
Arizona
Mississippi
Illinois
New Hampshire
Idaho
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Georgia
Kansas
South Dakota
Montana
West Virginia
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Utah
Washington
Colorado
Florida
Sources:
SHEEO
State Higher Education
Finance
Survey 2008;
NCES,
IPEDS
Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau,
*Adjusted for value of degrees
in the
state employment
market (median
earnings
by degree
type
and level)
American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
State Tax Capacity & Effort
Indexed to U.S. Average
State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita)
1.7
DE
1.6
1.5
1.4
CT
NJ
1.3
MA
AK
1.2
NH
1.1
1.0
WY
MD
VA
CO
NV
IL
WA
NY
MN
CA
USNE
PA
SD
0.9
TN
0.8
RI
WI
NC
GA
KS
HI
MOFL IN IA
OH
VT
OR TX
AZ ND
MI
UT KY
SC
ID
NM
LA
AL
OK
WV
MT
AR
0.7
ME
MS
0.6
0.6
0.8
1.0
State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)
1.2
1.4
The Colorado Story –
Perfect Storm
The Colorado Story –
Perfect Storm, or
Perfect Opportunity
Our Choice