Transcript Slide 1
Greater Manchester’s growing population 2011 Census - 1st release results Part 1: The statistics Regional population growth, 1981-2011 Local population growth, 2001-2011 Core Cities population growth Census 2011 Midyear Estimate 2001 Population Change 2001-2011 Percentage population change Manchester 503,100 422,900 80,200 19.0% Nottingham 305,700 268,900 36,800 13.7% Bristol 428,200 390,000 38,200 9.8% 1,073,000 984,600 88,400 9.0% Sheffield 552,700 513,100 39,600 7.7% Liverpool 466,400 441,900 24,500 5.5% Newcastle 280,200 266,200 14,000 5.3% Leeds 751,500 715,600 35,900 5.0% 4,360,800 4,003,200 357,600 8.9% 53,012,500 49,449,700 3,562,800 7.2% Birmingham Totals Core Cities England Core Cities vs. Metropolitan Counties Growth Since 2001 % of E&W population at 2001 % of E&W's growth 2001-2011 3,715,000 - - North West 279,000 12.9% Greater Manchester 166,400 4.8% 80,200 0.8% Metropolitan Counties 588,000 20.8% Core Cities 357,600 7.6% England & Wales Manchester Growth < population share Growth < population 4.5% share Growth > population 2.2% share Growth < population 15.8% share Growth > population 9.6% share 7.5% Population in GM 1891-2011 2,800,000 Recession WW1 2,700,000 WW2 Great Depression 2,600,000 Recession 2,500,000 2,400,000 Recession 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1939 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Population in GM 1891-2011 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 9.0% GM 2,400,000 E&W 2,200,000 -6.0% 2001-2011 -1.0% 1991-2001 2,300,000 1981-1991 4.0% 2,100,000 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1939 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 GM local authority growth, 2001-2011 GM population change by age-band 25.0% Minibaby boom 20.0% - Migration - Universities - Better enumeration Post- war baby boom 15.0% Increased longevity 10.0% 1960s baby boom 5.0% 1930s depression -10.0% 90 and over 85 ‒ 89 80 ‒ 84 75 ‒ 79 70 ‒ 74 65 ‒ 69 60 ‒ 64 55 ‒ 59 50 ‒ 54 45 ‒ 49 40 ‒ 44 35 ‒ 39 30 ‒ 34 25 ‒ 29 20 ‒ 24 15 ‒ 19 10 ‒ 14 5‒9 0‒4 -5.0% All ages 0.0% Growth in 0-4 population across GM Forecast growth in 60+ cohort to 2030 35.0% 2010 2030 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Wigan Trafford Tameside Stockport Salford Rochdale Oldham Manchester Bury Bolton 0.0% Changes in household composition — There are 1.1m households in GM – 20% of these in Manchester — Growth since 2001 > than within E&W (8% vs. 7.5%) — Manchester ranks 20th nationally in terms of growth — Oldham (1.9%) and Stockport (0.8%) are ranked amongst the lowest growth rates nationally — Little change in size of average GM household (2.34) – AHS highest in Oldham and lowest in Salford — Rapid growth in communal living establishments in Manchester Part 2: Policy Implications Policy implications — Population losses of the ‘70s and ‘80s have been reversed – shows the value of developing high value economic activity — Conurbation core is driving population growth – will create further demand for housing and employment in the core but need to get the balance right — Slower growth in the wider conurbation – how do we better exploit the potential of rest of GM to host population growth? Policy implications (2) — Health: — Greater demand for services, particularly from the young and from the elderly, leading to cost pressures — How do we align health plans and infrastructure of ‘relatively young’ and ‘relatively old’ GM boroughs — Education: — Rising demand for nursery and primary school places — In years to come these pressures will apply to secondary schools, colleges and universities - but not necessarily in the same locations? — Need to plan provision within context of growing school independence Policy implications (3) — Transport: — How important is transport to population growth? Stockport vs. Wigan, growing concentration in conurbation core — Metrolink expansion to Rochdale, Oldham and Tameside – will this arrest trend towards conurbation core? — Link GM to other areas – by road, rail, air — Housing: — Low build rates at a time of increasing births, high migration and falling household sizes — More land and incentives needed to get the right units built in the right areas Discussion Q&A Next steps Future Census 2011 data releases Second release November 2012 – February 2013: Key and Quick Statistics – in phases Third release March 2013 – June 2013: Local Characteristics – in phases Fourth release July 2013 – October 2013: Detailed Characteristics, Themes – in phases Upcoming New Economy events 11 September – Experian & CACI presentations 19 September – Economic Impact of Sport 19 November – GMFM Annual Seminar More to be added shortly – see New Economy website for details. E-mail: [email protected]