Transcript 2033 Policy Context

Transport 2040
Simon Warburton
Head of Transport & Research, TfGM
A story of trends and disruptors
Why does 2040 matters to us?
A brief history of futures
1950s
1960s
1962
1963
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
Trends and Disruptors
Travel to work – GM Residents 2001
Other, 0.4%
Walk, 9.8%
Work mainly at
home, 7.7%
Light rail
(Metrolink), 1.1%
Train, 1.7%
Bicycle, 1.9%
Bus / minibus /
coach, 10.7%
Passenger Car / Van,
7.4%
Taxi, 0.9%
Motorbike / scooter
/ moped, 0.8%
Driving Car / Van,
57.6%
Method of travel to work data from Census 2011 table CT0015 (not table QS701), 2001 data from Table KS15
Travel to work – GM Residents 2011
Walk, 9.9%
Other, 0.4%
Work mainly at
home, 8.5%
Light rail
(Metrolink), 1.3%
Bicycle, 2.1%
Train, 2.5%
Bus / minibus /
coach, 10.5%
Passenger Car / Van,
5.7%
Taxi, 0.8%
Motorbike / scooter
/ moped, 0.5%
Driving Car / Van,
57.8%
Method of travel to work data from Census 2011 table CT0015 (not table QS701), 2001 data from Table KS15
Journey to Work in GM
2001
2011
Work mainly at home
83,420
103,033
24%
Light rail (Metrolink)
12,291
15,752
28%
Train
18,418
30,381
65%
114,960
128,101
11%
Taxi
9,357
9,875
6%
Motorbike / scooter / moped
8,862
6,663
-25%
620,332
704,699
14%
Passenger Car / Van
79,375
69,189
-13%
Bicycle
20,582
25,042
22%
105,899
120,843
14%
1,073,496
1,211,578
11%
Bus / minibus / coach
Driving Car / Van
Walk
Total
+/- %
Key Commuter Flows within the Greater Manchester Sub-Region - 2013 Forecast
10197
Rochdale
Bury
7509
14161
12049
6376
Oldham
Bolton
5344
Manchester
Wigan
Tameside
3923
18595
Warrington
15374
Salford
23129
28358
8391
Stockport
Trafford
High
Peak
Key
15k +
Vale
Royal
Macclesfield
Congleton
10 to 15k
5 to 10k
2 to 5k
1 to 2k
Blue Arrows indicate key movements into the district of Manchester
Red Arrows indicate key movements into the district of Manchester
Green Arrows indicate other key movements in the Greater Manchester Sub-Region
Source: 2001 Census
All numbers are total commuters all modes of transport
All forecasts have been taken from Tempro 6
Key Commuter Flows within the Greater Manchester Sub-Region - 2033 Forecast
11982
Rochdale
Bury
8987
16614
14439
7460
Oldham
Bolton
6533
Manchester
Wigan
Tameside
4965
21702
Warrington
18448
Salford
28147
33685
10340
Stockport
Trafford
High
Peak
Key
15k +
Vale
Royal
Macclesfield
Congleton
10 to 15k
5 to 10k
2 to 5k
1 to 2k
Blue Arrows indicate key movements into the district of Manchester
Red Arrows indicate key movements into the district of Manchester
Green Arrows indicate other key movements in the Greater Manchester Sub-Region
Source: 2001 Census
All numbers are total commuters all modes of transport
All forecasts have been taken from Tempro 6
Trends and Transport Planning
Transport sector dominated by economics and trends
Everything has a value based on what has come before…
…and models dominate decision-making in Whitehall
But,
…GMTF began to break the ties of trend-based analysis
….and devolution offers the potential to go further
And, crucially travel demand is derived in nature
“The case for finishing the Jubilee Line now hangs on the notion
that it would somehow rejuvenate the Docklands – a notion that
must seem optimistic”, Transport Planning for London, 1980
Disruptors
Strong GM history in understanding and creating disruptors to trends
Focus on cross-sector GM work on understanding economic,
environmental and technology disruptors
Potential to further understand disruptors through wider GM
collaborative working (e.g. Horizon 2020)
Transport as a disruptor – shaping future trends
Economy,& Spatial Form
Trends are vulnerable in the face of change:
•
Long-term north/south economic balance
•
Changing models of working and internet-generation
- changing models of commuting?
•
Changing models of training – changing needs to
access opportunity?
•
Long-term trends in industry and logistics – a
changing economic base / geography for GM?
•
Market-led housing market growth – urban renewal
or dispersed development?
•
Demographic timebomb – changing demands and
affordability?
Environment and Technology
Road travel generates 30+% of GM
carbon problem and 70+% air quality
problem
Environmental regulations and economic
ambitions
Development of markets for
electric/ultra-low vehicles, and even
driverless cars
New attitudes to carbon, public health
and active lifestyles
Transport as a Disruptor
Shaping rather than responding:
• HS2 and the UK economic balance
• Connectivity and employment
markets
• Local transport investment to shape
spatial form and the housing market
• Aviation and Manchester Airport and
international trade
• Technology and sustainable travel
marketing
Conclusion
2040 matters to us:
• GMS and the GMCA has given us a strong platform for growth
• We need to look beyond its horizons now
• Our future is a complex mix of economic, social and economic
factors, all of which may well be driven ever faster by technology
• We see strong case for scenario planning alongside trend analysis
• We can’t answer all the questions, but we need make sure that we
have asked them
Thank you
[email protected]