Transcript Document

Data Driven Safety
X-15 Simulator
X-15 Simulator Use
• Time honored criteria to predict aircraft behavior failed to
uncover serious threats
• Pilot controlled flight-simulation device developed to aid
research
• Researchers could now simulate and analyze hazardous
conditions at a lower risk
• Unknown hazards of controlling X-15 flight explored
before flight
– 10 hours simulation for 1 hour of flight
• The application of X-15 simulation techniques to other
aerospace applications was an unforeseen datainformation-knowledge safety benefit of that program
Flight Data Recorders
Commercial Aviation Safety Analysis
Of Data
• Evolved from research programs in the 1950’s
• Metal strip scribed with basic parameters
– Heading / Time / Airspeed / Altitude
• In 1958 the Civil Aeronautics Administration
mandated use in commercial aircraft
• By 1980’s second generation digital recorders
were mandated which captured 11 parameters for
up to 25 hours of recording time
– Pitch / Roll / Vert & Long Accels / Thrust / Controls /
Radio transmission
The 1960’s Marked the Beginning of
Significant Improvements in Aviation Safety
50
45
40
35
Hull loss
accidents
per year*
30
25
20
15
Departures, Millions*
10
5
Reductions possible with
continued Industry effort
Hull loss accident rate*
[Accidents per million departures]
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
*Accident and Departure data through 31 December 2001
05/16/2002 FT-004Wc
Data Collection & Analysis
• Digital Flight Data Recorders
– DFDR (Black Box)
– Modern equipment has several hundred recorded
discrete parameters
• Post accident investigations able to more
accurately identify cause
– Challenged to maintain hazard identification focus
versus establishing blame
• Aviation safety recorded remarkably improved
Flight Operations Quality Assurance
• Systematic analysis of routine data
• Thousands of hours of recorded data
reduced to distribution graphs
• Safety departments can focus on most
critical information that exceeds some
predetermined value
Digital Flight Data Recorder
Routine Download and Analysis
Data – Information - Knowledge
• European community has employed this for over
30 years
• U.S. just now implementing
– Litigious society turns safety information into a liability
– Non-punitive policy is imperative to success
– Objective is to identify trends – not individuals
• Cooperative efforts of 3 main parties necessary
– Industry / Company
– Regulators
– Labor
• Positive results already realized
Computer Technology Enhances
Safety
• Digital Flight Data Acquisition Units – DFDAU
– Thousands of information sources can report to a
central recording unit
• Quick Access Recorders – QAR
– Ease of access to data stream
• Purpose of Program is to:
– Detect latent patterns of behavior in human
performance
– Weaknesses in the aviation system supporting
infrastructure
– Anomalies in aircraft performance
New Focus on the Hazard
• Thousands of hours of data reduced to distribution
charts (Information)
• Adverse systemic trends now addressed as root
cause versus human failings (Knowledge)
• Leading Indicators in trend data are point of focus
versus accident investigation (Data Mining)
• Safety departments can identify trends and lead
decision makers to address highest threat
(Proactive vs. Reactive)
Worldwide and U. S. Airline Fatalities
Classified by Accident Type – 1992 through 2001
2500 2371
Total Worldwide Fatalities - 6,926
2152
Worldwide
Number of Fatalities
2000
U. S. Operators
1500
1382
CA
CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities
Worldwide = 4,523 or 65%
1000
651
528
506
500
339
231 230
160
989
CC
110
192
140
121
17
0
108
5
2
27
91
37
13
7
6
0
3
0
2
1
0
0
WW
number of
fatal accidents
(112 total)
U.S. Operators
(22 total)
Note: •
•
•
•
Loss of
control
in flight
CFIT
Midair
collision
Inflight
fire
Fuel
tank
explosion
Landing
31
27
2
2
2
17
3
7
1
0
1
1
3
1
Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included.
Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded.
Western-built commercial transports > 60,000 lbs.
Hijack and Sabotage events are excluded
Takeoff Runway
config. Incursion
Ice/
snow
Windshear
Misc.
fatality
Fuel
exhaustion
3
2
2
8
2
1
2
8
1
1
1
4
0
0
1
0
RTO
Turbulence
CFIT = Controlled Flight Into Terrain
RTO = Refused Takeoff
Loss of Control: CA = Control Available; CC = Control Compromised
Unknown
6/10/02 AT-002
Data Driven Safety Summary
• Safety departments generally seen by accountants
as not contributing to profitability
– Safety as a Cost Center
• Powerful new tools allow safety departments to
statistically predict where the next high cost
accident will happen
• Limited resources are focused on the most
significant hazards
• Reductions in maintenance, operating, and
training costs realized
– Safety as a Profit Center