Transcript Document 7108719

Commercial Aviation
Safety Team (CAST)
David Downey
International Aircraft Fire and
Cabin Safety Research Conference
Lisbon, Portugal, November 2004
In the U.S., our focus was set by the
White House Commission on Aviation Safety,
and The National Civil Aviation Review
Commission (NCARC)
“Reduce Fatal Accident
Rate by 80%”
“Strategic Plan to Improve Safety”
“Improve Safety Worldwide”
We Need to Continuously Improve
Aviation Safety
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Hull loss accident rate
5
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
We Need to Continuously Improve
Aviation Safety
50
Airplanes in service
32,495
45
40
17,357
Boeing 11,693
35
2002
2021
30
25
20
Departures, Millions
15
10
Hull loss accident rate
5
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
We Need to Continuously Improve
Aviation Safety
50
Airplanes in service
45
32,495
40
17,357
Boeing 11,693
35
2002
30
2021
25
Hull loss
accidents
per year
Business as usual
20
15
10
Departures, Millions
Our goal
5
Hull loss accident rate
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Ru
Co
n
Ev
nc
e
ac
ule
p
om
F
g-U
CE
Tu
rb
ir
Inc
Mi
da
GN
D
Sy
s-C
En
sio
IT
ew
Cr
l
Flt
llis
ion
LO
C
nw
ay
plo
Fir
e/E
x
CF
LO
C
To
ta
Fatality Risk
Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Safer Skies
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
GENERAL AVIATION
Aeronautical
Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Loss of Control
Uncontained
Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Interference
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain
Approach and
Landing
Carry-on Baggage
Child Restraint
Survivability
Weather
Runway Incursions
IMPROVED DATA
& ANALYSIS
Turbulence
HUMAN FACTORS
IN OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
CAST Goals
•
Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
accident rate by 80% by 2007
•
Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA,
FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations
and appropriate regulatory/ government
authorities to reduce worldwide commercial
aviation fatal accident rate
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Industry
AIA
Airbus
ALPA
APA
ATA
IFALPA
NACA
Boeing
P&W*
RAA
FSF
Government
Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
IATA**
AAPA**
ATAC**
APFA**
* Representing GE and RR
** Observer
DOD
FAA
•
•
•
•
•
Aircraft Certification
Flight Standards
System Safety
Air Traffic Operations
Research
NASA
ICAO**
JAA
TCC
NATCA**
NTSB**
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST
Joint Safety
Analysis Teams (JSAT)
Joint Safety
Implementation
Teams (JSIT)
Joint Implementation
Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
• Data analyses
• Safety
enhancement
development
• Master safety plan
• Enhancement
effectiveness
• Future areas of study
CAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan
•
Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies
Initiatives were Combined into CAST
•
Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated
Strategic Safety Plan Developed
•
•
•
•
46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements
8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies.
Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007
Safety Enhancements in place and fully
supported by Government and Industry
CAST Safety Plan Specifics
CAST Safety Plan
25 Completed Safety Enhancements

Safety Culture
 Maintenance Procedures
 Flight Crew Training
 Air Traffic Controller Training
 Uncontained Engine Failures
 Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
 Standard Operating Procedures
 Precision Approaches
 Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
 Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)
CAST Safety Plan (cont.)
21 Committed Safety Enhancements





Policies and Procedures
Aircraft Design
Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)
Runway Incursion Prevention
Precision Approaches (additional projects)
8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
Risk Reduction
70%
9000
Total Cost in
$ (Millions)
8000
60%
7000
50%
6000
40%
5000
2007
30%
2020
4000
3000
20%
2000
10%
0%
CAST-050
10000
APPROVED PLAN
1000
0
Resource Cost ($ Millions)
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
80%
Safety Plan Benefits

Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also
results in approximately $620 million annual
savings to the industry


Current accident cost per flight is approximately
$76 cycle
Implementation of the 46 selected safety
enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight
cycle
Safety is morally required and is also good for
business
Cost Savings
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
100
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
80
Historical cost of
accidents per flight
cycle
Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
Or
~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
60
40
20
Cost of accident fatalities
following implementation of the
CAST plan @ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
Portion of Risk
Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents
Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Risk Eliminated
Risk Remaining
CAST 1987-2000
Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset –
Security events excluded.
All Regions Combined
Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide
(2007 Implementation Values)
100%
Risk Eliminated
Risk Remaining
90%
80%
Portion of Risk
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
D
-BI
R
RM
AD
RW
WS
T
OS
US
RE
C
AR
RI
L
FU
E
I
-N
da
ir
FI R
E
OT
HE
R
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
Mi
ICE
F-N
P
SC
F-P
P
SC
I
LO
C-
CF
IT
To
ta
l
0%
Safety Metrics Examples
Safety Enhancement
1.
Terrain Avoidance Warning
System (TAWS)
Indicator
Reduction
in MSAW alerts
Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (711,18)
Percentage
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment
Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)
Reduction
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training –
one project
Continuous
27. LOC Policies and Procedures –
Risk Assessments and Management
– one project
Percentage
of operators who have adopted constant angle
approaches
Continuous reduction in the number of approaches where
descent rates exceed 1000 feet per minute in final approach
phase, reduction in the percentage of dive and drive
approaches and the number of unstabilized approaches
in number of inadvertent descents below decision
height
reduction in the number of busted approach
gates and altitude busts
of operators/manufacturers with risk
assessment/management processes in place
Continuous reduction in the number of operations with
recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems
Percentage of operators with a process to include safety
information in manuals
International
Outreach
Regional Perspective
Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003*
Europe
0.7
United States
and Canada
0.4
C.I.S.1
JAA - 0.6
Non JAA – 1.2
Middle East
3.1
Africa
13.3
China
0.5
Asia
1.7
(Excluding
China)
Latin America
and Caribbean
2.4
Oceania
0.0
World
1.0
1Insufficient
*
fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
Accidents per
million departures
2003 Preliminary Information
11/1/03
REG-053a
Regional Perspective
Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003*
United States
and Canada
0.4
CAST
JSSI
35 SEs
11 SEs to EASA
11 complete
62% reduction
46 SEs
25 complete
21 in work
73% reduction
Europe
0.7
COSCAP CIS
C.I.S.1 Just starting
JAA - 0.6
Non JAA – 1.2
Middle East
3.1
Africa
13.3
Latin America
and Caribbean
2.4
*
fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
Asia
1.7
(Excluding
China)
ASET
Just forming up
PAAST
CFIT, ALAR & RI
SE-23 +
1Insufficient
China
0.5
COSCAP’s Asia
12 SEs on plan
60% reduction
Oceania
0.0
World
1.0
Accidents per
million departures
2003 Preliminary Information
27 May 2004 -KLO