Transcript SAFER SKIES Briefing

What is Causing the Lower Aviation
Accident/Incident Rate?
Can We Correlate Improved Safety Records to the
Global Safety Agenda?
Cooperative Efforts Are Driving
Down the Accident Rate
Robert Matthews, Ph.D.
FAA Office of Accident Investigation
Michael Romanowski, Ph.D.
Aerospace Industries Association
U.S./Europe International Safety Conference
Philadelphia
June 7 - 11, 2004
Accident rates in US and Western Europe
have
dropped
dramatically
over
the
years
30
Current accident rates are incredibly low
Challenge is to drive them lower
Accidents Per Million Flight Hours
25
20
US Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2004
15
Accident Rate
10
5
'03
'00
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, 2004.
76
73
70
67
64
61
58
55
52
49
46
0
Fatal Accident Rate
History shows new capabilities & appropriately
focused actions reduce accident rate
Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures
9
New fleet (L-049, DC-6 & B-377)
Earliest ILS (Glide slope, LOC & markers)
First VOR (1950), then DME
8
Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2003
Radar introduced at selected towers
Vickers-700 Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1856 US)
DC-7 (1955), Lockheed Electra
Radio contact, ATC centers & cruise aircraft 1949-55
7
6
Long-Range radar (Centers)
Jet Engine; 707 (1958) & DC-8
VOR/DME integrated into autopilot
(precision approaches)
Secondary radar
5
4
3
FMS
Wind shear detection
CRM & 6-Axis simulator & FDR
Cabin safety
Flight envelope protection
RNAV (processing VOR/DME &
basic Instruments)
GPWS, TCAS
Early automation
2
FOQA/ASAP programs
Large-scale RJ insertion
Cooperative safety
agendas
1
'02
98
94
90
86
82
Year
78
74
70
66
62
58
54
50
46
0
Introduction of regional jets illustrates the
dynamic system
1800
Regional Jets
1600
1400
Turboprops ≤ 34 seats
1200
1000
800
Turboprops > 34 seats
Last new order (for 10) Nov ‘97
600
400
200
0
86
87
88
US Part 121 In-service fleet
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Focused action and new capability
dramatically reduced mid-air collisions
FATAL MID-AIR COLLISIONS
U.S. PASSENGER AIRCRAFT OVER 30 SEATS
Number of Fatal Mid-airs
12
10
8
6
4
Las t Fatal Mid-air
San Diego, 1978
2
0
46-55
56-65
66-75
Years
76-85
86-95
96-
Focused action led to dramatic
reduction in wind shear accidents
Training/
Pilot Guide
Reactive
Wind shear
R
Systems
Enhancements
Wind Shear
Accidents
1970
Predictive Wind shear
Systems
727
Denver
8/7/75
DC-9
Philadelphia
6/23/76
707
Pago Pago
1/30/74
75
727
Doha
3/14/79
80
DC-9
Charlotte
7/2/94
727
New Orleans
7/9/82
DC-10
Faro
12/21/92
L1011
Dallas-ft. Worth
8/2/85
85
90
95
2000
Cooperative efforts are
bringing accident rate down
Hull Loss Accident Rate
Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December 2002
2.00
Rate per million departures
5 year running average
1.60
1.20
FSF
CFIT/ALAR
Industry effort
starts
0.80
CAST/JSSI
begins
PAAST
begins
0.40
0.00
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Portion of Risk
Fully implementing the CAST plan will lead
to a 73% overall risk reduction by 2007
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents
Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)
CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull
Loss Dataset –
Security events excluded.
Risk Eliminated
Risk Remaining
CAST Goals

Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
accident rate by 80% by 2007

Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO,
IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international
organizations and appropriate regulatory/
government authorities to reduce
worldwide commercial aviation fatal
accident rate
CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively
develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda
Government
Industry
AIA
Airbus
ALPA
APA
ATA
IFALPA
NACA
Boeing
P&W*
RAA
FSF
Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
IATA**
AAPA**
ATAC**
APFA**
* Representing GE and RR
** Observer
DOD
FAA
•
•
•
•
•
Aircraft Certification
Flight Standards
System Safety
Air Traffic Operations
Research
NASA
ICAO**
JAA
TCC
NATCA**
NTSB**
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST
Joint Safety
Analysis Teams (JSAT)
• Data analyses
Joint Safety
Implementation
Teams (JSIT)
• Safety
enhancement
development
Joint Implementation
Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
• Master safety plan
• Enhancement
effectiveness
• Future areas of
study
Accident Rate
Generic model for achieving long
term accident rate reduction
Training
SOPs
Maximize existing systems
Proactive data management
Design solutions
Time
Robust CAST Methodology

Detailed event sequence - problem
identification from worldwide accidents and
incidents









CVR
DFDR
NTSB reports, etc.
Broad based teams (45-50 specialists/team)
> 800 problem statements
752 interventions proposed
Packaged into 87 system enhancements
Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy
47 enhancements adopted
CAST process led to integrated
strategic safety plan

Part 121 or equivalent passenger and cargo
operations studied

Current CAST plan:
 47
8
Prioritized Safety Enhancements
R&D projects and 2 studies
 Projected

73% fatality risk reduction by 2007
Industry and Government implementing plan

ATA (20 operators), RAA (47), NACA (13) plus
non-aligned (35)
Resources vs. risk reduction highlights
the need for prioritized approach
10
Risk Eliminated
$
Risk Reduction
Total Cost in
$ (Millions)
APPROVED PLAN
9
8
75%
7
6
$
50%
2007
2020
5
4
3
25%
2
0%
CAST-050
$
$
$
1
0
Resource Cost ($ Billions)
100%
Prioritized safety makes good economic
sense
100
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
80
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
Cost Savings
Historical cost of
accidents per flight
cycle
Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
Or
~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
60
40
20
Cost of accident fatalities
following implementation of the
CAST plan @ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
CAST Safety Plan

25 Completed Safety Enhancements










Safety Culture
Maintenance Procedures
Flight Crew Training
Air Traffic Controller Training
Uncontained Engine Failures
Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
Standard Operating Procedures
Precision Approaches
Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
Proactive Safety Programs (e.g., FOQA, ASAP)
CAST Safety Plan (cont.)


21 Committed Safety Enhancements

Policies and Procedures

Aircraft Design

Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)

Runway Incursion Prevention

Precision Approaches (additional projects)
8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
PAI/RNP will lead to large safety &
efficiency improvements
Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives

Performance-based NAS: Communication,
Navigation & Surveillance with much greater
accuracy & reliability than system has today
 Most profound change in near future
 Enable precisely defined, computer generated flight
path
 Tightly defined envelope - unprecedented accuracy
 Performance requirements will vary for airspace and
phase of flight
 more efficient use of en-route & terminal airspace
 Increased capacity
 reduced separation
 new approaches enabled
 Time & fuel savings
PAI/RNP will lead to large safety &
efficiency improvements
Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives
CAST PAI/RNP enhancements
 Supports Performance-based NAS
 Individual safety contribution: 15% reduction in risk for
US when fully implemented
 Targets CFIT and Loss of Control type accidents
 Exploit aircraft’s inherent capability – Classic, standard
or advanced aircraft
 Vertical Angles – applicable to all aircraft regardless of
technology




Eliminate step-down approach
Enable improved “constant angle/constant rate” approach
Fosters stabilized approaches and descents to the runway
Approved approaches established at 84% of US airports
PAI/RNP will lead to large safety &
efficiency improvements
Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives
CAST PAI/RNP enhancements

Three-dimensional navigational (3D RNAV) – Standard and advanced
airplanes



Increased precision
Minimums & charting specs - to allow for improved stabilized descents
to runways.
Required Navigational Performance (RNP) – Advanced airplanes


Guidance to allow airlines to use reduced landing minimums on all
properly-equipped airplanes
Extension of these procedures will



reduce the risk of an accident from impact with terrain while on descent
improve the ability of airplanes to land in marginal conditions.
xLS – All airplanes


Requirements for the installation of laterally- and vertically-guided
approach paths being developed
For runways currently without an Instrument Landing System (ILS). xLS
approaches will provide improved safety during landing
CAST metrics to ensure implementation and
effectiveness; identify areas for additional action
CAST entered loop in 1997/98
UEF Category 3 & 4 Events per Year
Monitor
4.0
Identify
Prioritize
Resolve
(9)
AFS-200
Harmonized
approach
minima.
(16)
(6,11,16,19,
23,24,27)
AFS-400
(28A)
ATP-500
(24,27)
(9,19,
24,27)
AFS200
(9)
Policy for
RNP IFR
procedures
(26)
Policy for new
approach
procedures
(15)
AFS400
(25a)
(28A)
Refine
international
concepl for
GLS
ICAO SARPs
S&GAS
CAT II/III
(28b)
9/30/04
AFS200
5/31-04
Transition to
RNAV/RNP
4/30/07
AIA
S&GAS
current
aircraft
retrofit
(30)
AVN
Re-name GPS
procedures to
RNAV
(18)
ATP500
Complete
transition to
RNAV/RNP
(25b)
2.0
2.0
Projec
te
due to d Reduced
N
Enhan
ced In umber of E
specti
vents
ons
1.0
1.0
No. of Events expected based on
92 to 98 average rate
93
94
95 96
97 98
99
Year
11-30-09
AAF
Frequency
AFS400
Crew
interaction
for new
procedures
(10)
Events per year projected
without intervention
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
No. of Annual Events
Exploiting FOQA-type data can
bring powerful system benefits
5/31-03
4/30/03
Upper
Control
Limit
3.0
92
SE-3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 CFIT:
Precision-Like Approaches
6/30/01
Uncontained Engine Failure Metric
Tracking the Progress
Emerging risk
due to system
change
Install VGSE
at Each
Runway End
(8)
Time
Summary

History shows focused action and introduction of new
capabilities led to large accident rate reduction

CAST enhancements focus a resource-effective strategy to
maximize accident rate reduction




Implementation well along
73% reduction expected by 2007
40-50% reduction estimated to date
Transition to detailed data sharing will lead to further safety benefits

U.S. experiencing a 78% reduction in commercial fatal
accident rate from the 1997 baseline

More metrics required to establish firm linkage between
CAST program and demonstrated accident rate reduction

However, circumstance suggests there is a correlation
Cooperative safety agendas are flourishing
around the world
COSCAP CIS
Underway
JSSI
CAST
46 SEs
25 complete
21 in work
73% reduction
PAAST
35 SEs
5 SEs to EASA
11 complete
62% reduction
COSCAP
NA, SA, SEA
9 SEs on plan
4 SEs in review
ASET
Underway
CFIT, ALAR
& RI SE-23 +
We encourage everyone to support these worthwhile activities