Transcript voss_aeroclub_063009 - Flight Safety Foundation

Aero Club of Washington
William Voss
President/CEO
June 30, 2009
Major Accidents
Worldwide Commercial Jets
1998 – 2008
50
1.40
1.20
Western Major Accident Rate*
1.00
Major Accidents
40
30
22
0.80
24
19
17
20
13
13
13
16
15
18
11
10
0.60
0.40
0.20
0
0.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Ascend
* Reliable worldwide departure/rate data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft
Major Accident Rate*
Major Accidents
Major Accident Rate
Accident rate per million departures
Western-Built Commercial Jets*
1997 – 2008
1.20
5 year running average
0.80
Major Accident Rate
(per million departures)
0.40
0.00
1997
Source: Ascend
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
* Reliable total departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft
2006
2007
2008
Breakdown: Accident Categories
IATA Safety Report 2008
4
CEO & COO Brief
Regional Rate: Western-built Jet Hull Losses
IATA Safety Report 2008
5
CEO & COO Brief
What it Looks Like to
the Public
6
20 August — Spanair
Madrid
22 September — XL Airways
Perpignan, France
20 December — Continental
Denver
15 January — US Airways
New York
12 February — Colgan Air
Buffalo
25 February — Turkish Airways
Amsterdam
20 March – Emirates Airlines
Melbourne
13
23 March – FEDEX
Tokyo
1 June - Air France 447
15
30 June – Yemenia 626
Comoros
16
NEW TRENDS
17
The Biggest Killer
Used to be CFIT
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The Biggest Killer
Now it is Loss of Control
19
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
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The Future is Inescapable
• We are in the middle of an explosion of the
world's middle class
• About 70m people a year globally are
entering this wealth group
• Accelerating to 90m a year by 2030
• In 20 years 2bn people will have joined the
ranks of the middle class
Source: Chief economist, Goldman Sachs, July 2008
21
ICAO IATA Revised Forecast
22
Where Traffic Growth will Occur
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast
23
What about the Regulator?
• 190 state regulatory agencies
“With respect to aircraft operations,
approximately half of the audited states have
an insufficient number of flight operations
inspectors to adequately perform safety
oversight of civil aviation activities.”
ICAO
24
RESPONSES
25
Safety is Information Driven
•Share the information
•Protect the information
•Act on the information
26
Share the Information
• Between competitors
• Between segments of the
industry
• Between regulators
27
Safety is Information Driven
•Share the information
•Protect the information
•Act on the information
28
Protect the Information
• Public demanding
more accountability
• Prosecutions
becoming frequent
• Direct interference
with safety
investigations
becoming an issue
A Balanced to be Maintained
Safety
30
Justice
Flight Safety Foundation Criticizes
Prosecutorial Interference With
Accident Investigation
The Flight Safety Foundation sharply
criticized the interference of prosecutors in
ongoing aviation accident investigations in
Italy and France, warning that such
interference hampers efforts to improve
aviation safety and prevent similar accidents
in the future
31
Joint Resolution
Regarding Criminalization of
Aviation Accidents
Legislative Protections
Flight Safety Foundation Calls for Stronger
Protection of Volunteered Aviation Safety
Information
FSF today endorsed the creation of a “qualified
exception” from discovery of voluntary selfdisclosure reporting programs, similar to the
protection already provided in U.S. law against the
use of Cockpit Voice Recorder …
33
Safety is Information Driven
•Share the information
•Protect the information
•Act on the information
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Act on the Information
• Update old rules with new information
– Fatigue Risk Management
• Build on the substantial existing science
– Training in this century, for this century
• Create meaningful standards that reflect the real
world
• Respond to emerging trends
– Are yesterdays scenarios still today’s threats?
35
Summary
• The accident rate is starting to increase
• The causes are shifting
• Growth is inevitable and we are not
positioned to handle it
• Safety information is the key, but it must
be shared, protected, and acted upon
• Time to act on fatigue and training without
regard to past constraints
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