Transcript SAFER SKIES Briefing - CAST | Commercial Aviation Safety Team

Commercial Aviation Safety Team
(CAST)
Cooperative Efforts Can Drive Down the
Accident Rate
European Civil Aviation Conference
One Hundred and Twenty-Fourth Meeting of the Directors
General of Civil Aviation
Margaret Gilligan
Government Co-Chair, CAST
December 7, 2005
Accident Rates in the U.S. and Western Europe
Have Dropped Dramatically Over the Years
35
Accidents Per Million Flight Hours
30
Current accident rates are incredibly low
Challenge is to drive them lower
25
U. S. Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2004
20
15
Accident Rate
10
5
Fatal Accident Rate
0
4 6 4 8 5 0 5 2 5 4 5 6 5 8 6 0 6 2 6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 '0 0 '0 2 '0 4
Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, 2004.
History Shows New Capabilities and Appropriately
Focused Actions Reduced Accident Rate
Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures
9
Pressurized Aircraft into fleet (L-049, DC-6 & B377) Earliest ILS (Glide slope, LOC & markers)
8
Broad implementation of VOR and DME
Radar introduced at selected towers
Vickers-700 Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1956 US)
DC-7 (1955), Lockheed Electra
Radio contact, ATC centers & cruise aircraft 1949-55
7
6
Long-Range radar (Centers)
Jet Engine; 707 (1958) & DC-8
VOR/DME integrated into autopilot
(precision approaches)
Secondary radar
5
4
FMS
CRM & 6-Axis Simulator & FDR
Windshear
Cabin Safety
RNAV (processing VOR/DME &
basic Instruments)
GPWS, TCAS; Early automation
3
2
FOQA/ASAP & ATC Data
RJ Revolution
New Large Jets
Cooperative safety agenda
1
'04
'02
'00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
5
Commercial Aviation Safety Team
(CAST)
 Ongoing
Industry and FAA Safer Skies
Initiatives were combined into CAST
 Data-Driven,
Consensus-Based, Integrated
Strategic Safety Plan Developed
 In
place and fully supported by Government
and Industry with Worldwide Recognition “CAST”
CAST Goals
 Reduce
the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
accident rate by 80% by 2007
 Work
together with airlines, JAA, ICAO,
IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international
organizations and appropriate regulatory/
government authorities to reduce worldwide
commercial aviation fatal accident rate
Gov’t and Industry Focused Action
Led to Dramatic Reduction in
Wind Shear Accidents
Training/
Pilot Guide
Reactive
Wind Shear
R
Systems
Enhancements
Wind Shear
Accidents
1970
Predictive Wind Shear
Systems
727
Denver
8/7/75
DC-9
Philadelphia
6/23/76
707
Pago Pago
1/30/74
75
727
Doha
3/14/79
80
DC-9
Charlotte
7/2/94
727
New Orleans
7/9/82
DC-10
Faro
12/21/92
L1011
Dallas-ft. Worth
8/2/85
85
90
95
2000
The CAST Agenda Was Developed to Address the Major
Types of Accidents That Have Occurred in the Past
2000
1.999
1800
Total Fatalities = 5,828 (5,530 onboard)
1,599
1600
2004 fatalities = 186 (186 onboard)
1400
1200
Fatalities
1000
800
600
420
368
400
155
339
348
231
31
225
200
136
119
89
25
13
3
0
CFIT*
Number
of fatal
accidents
91 total
22
Loss of Mid-air Takeoff In-flight
Fuel Structure Landing Runway Takeoff Fuel
control in collision configfire
tank
incursion
exhaustion
flight
uration
explosion
21
2
3
2
2
1
15
2
Note: Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included
Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded
Fatalities/accidents are placed in one category only.
2
2
Misc.
fatality
8
2
0
1
RTO** Turbulence Wind Ice/Snow/
shear
Heavy
Rain
1
2
0
1
Unknown
5
* CFIT = Controlled Flight Into Terrain
** RTO = Refused Takeoff
*** 2004 is based on Preliminary Data.
3-2-05 AT-071
CAST Organizational
Structure
CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively
develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda
Industry
AIA
Airbus
ALPA
APA
ATA
IFALPA
NACA
Boeing
GE*
RAA
FSF
Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
IATA**
AAPA**
ATAC**
APFA**
* Representing P&W and RR
** Observer
Government
DOD
FAA
•
•
•
•
Aircraft Certification
Flight Standards
Air Traffic Operations
Research
NASA
ICAO**
JAA
TCCA
NATCA**
NTSB**
EASA
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST
Joint Safety
Analysis Teams (JSAT)
• Data analyses
Joint Safety
Implementation
Teams (JSIT)
• Safety
enhancement
development
Joint Implementation
Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
• Master safety plan
• Enhancement
effectiveness
• Future areas of
study
Safety Analysis Process
Turbofans Installed on part 25 Aircraft
NTSB Accident
Incident Reports
25
2.
21.3 Reports
NASDAC data
Airclaims data
Historical
Data
20
Level 4
15
Level 3
10
5
3.
4.
Intervention Strategy
Selectove
Appr
Pr oposal
Set
s
AccidTr
entain
/ in
Ig
ncident
Review
Repor t s
Accident / I ncident
Analyze
Repor t s
8. 25d
15d
2
5d
3
1/ 2/30/
10/
9695
1/ 12/
11/
17/96
95
10/ 30/ 95
11/ 3/ 95
11/ 6/ 95
Develop
I nt er vent ion
Pr ior it ized
St r at egies
Pr epar e
Dr af t
Repor t
Revise
11/ 10/ 95
Repor t
2h
6
3d
4
5d
1/ 10/ 96
1/ 2/ 96
1/ 4/ 96
11/ 13/ 95
11/ 17/ 95
Final
Repor t
Cowl separation
Multi-related
Unknown
Threat
Combined
Threat
Causal Analysis
Cause
Cause
JSAT
5d
1/ 10/ 96
Final
Engine separation
Accident
Accident / I ncident
7
Pr epar e
Crew error
JSAT
JSAT
5
1
Case rupture
Pareto Plots
Cause Cause
5.
Multi - unrelated
Fuel
contam./exhaustion
Reverser
Multi - common other
Fire (e.g., under
cowl)
Uncontained - blades
Malfunction + crew
error
Industry
JSAT
Multi - common - env.
0
Uncontained disk/spacers
FOQA data
CAAM Level 3 and 4 Events
1.
Repor t
Appr ove
8
1h
9
1h
Select
I nt er vent ion
St r at egies
10
1d
1/ 11/ 96
1/ 11/ 96
1/ 11/ 96
1/ 11/ 96
1/ 11/ 96
1/ 12/ 96
6.
Safer
Skies
Industry
7.
Government
Implementation Strategy
JSIT
AvSP
Measuring Progress to Goal
Coordinated Plan
5.3-23
Safety Metrics Examples
Safety Enhancement
Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning
System (TAWS)
• Reduction in MSAW alerts
• Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (711,18)
• Percentage of operators who have adopted constant
21. ALAR Flight Deck
Equipment Upgrades – New
Type Designs (1-3)
• Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training
– one project
• Continuous reduction in the number of busted
27. LOC Policies and
Procedures – Risk
Assessments and Management
– one project
• Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk
angle approaches
• Continuous reduction in selected metrics
decision height
approach gates
• Continuous reduction in altitude busts
assessment/management processes in place
• Continuous reduction in the number of operations
with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical
systems
• Percentage of operators with a process to include
safety information in manuals
Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
10000
APPROVED PLAN
Risk Reduction
9000
Total Cost in
$ (Millions)
8000
75%
7000
6000
50%
5000
2007
2020
4000
3000
25%
2000
1000
0%
0
Resource Cost ($ Millions)
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
100%
Cost Savings
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
100
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
80
Historical cost of
accidents per flight
cycle
Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
Or
~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
60
40
20
Cost of accident fatalities
following implementation of the
CAST plan @ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
All Regions Combined
Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide
(2007 Implementation Values)
100%
90%
Risk Eliminated
80%
Risk Remaining
Portion of Risk
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
CAST Shared Safety Products Have Contributed
to Accident Fatality Risk Reduction Worldwide
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2004
JSSI
35 SEs
62% reduction
United States
and Canada
0.4
CAST
47 SEs
73% reduction
C.I.S.1
Europe - 0.7
China
0.5
Middle East
2.7
Latin America
and Caribbean
2.4
COSCAP CIS
Early stages
COSCAP Asia
27 SEs in work (China)
60% reduction
Asia
1.7
(Excluding
China)
Africa
12.3
ASET
Early stages
PAAST
CFIT and ALAR
World
0.74
Accidents per million departures (2004 rate)
(1 insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate)
Oceania
0.0
Introduction of Regional Jets Illustrates
the Dynamic System
1800
1600
1400
TURBOPROPS UNDER 35 SEATS
-
1200
1000
800
TURBOPROPS OVER 34 SEATS
Last new order: November ‘97
600
400
200
REGIONAL JETS
0
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
Data represents “in-service” aircraft. Source: Airclaims of London. EOY 2005 estimated on data through 3/31/05.
The Aviation System is Undergoing
Significant Change
Public Safety Expectation
Our Future Focus Must be Guided by Hazards
Identified Through Safety Information Sharing
and Problems and Solutions Addressed by a
Cooperative Industry/Government Approach
•
•
•
Effectiveness metrics
System monitoring for emerging risks and dynamic
changes
Isolated data sources combined and leveraged
through extensive data sharing
Isolated Data Sources Can Be Combined to
Leverage the Power of Safety Info. Data Sharing
PDARS
FOQA
ASAP
Other
Legacy
ASRS
Weather
NASDAC
ROMAN
MRO
VASIP
ECCAIRS
Firewall
NAOMS
COS
DATA
Highlight Possible
Safety Issues
Conclusions
• CAST has an effective data-driven process
• CAST brings together all the key players
– Air Carriers
– Employee Groups
– Manufacturers
– Government
• Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2007
• CAST is committed to worldwide participation
• CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to identify
changing and emerging risks
• History shows focused action and introduction of new
capabilities have led to large accident rate reductions
• Joint industry and government teams working together to a
common agenda can further enhance the safety of our very
safe aviation system. Can we meet the challenge?