Transcript Revised NPRA Slides

The Population of Texas and The United States:
Historical Patterns and Future
Trends Affecting Education
Steve H. Murdock
Department of Sociology
Rice University
TAMU Commerce
Educational Conference
July 15, 2010
Major Topics of the Presentation
__________________________
• Change in Rates and Sources of
Population Growth
• Increase in NonAnglo Populations
• Aging of the Population
• Implications of Demographic Change for
Education, the Labor Force and Economic
Development
Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas
and the United States, 1850-2009
Total Population
Year
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
Texas
212,592
604,215
818,579
1,591,749
2,235,527
3,048,710
3,896,542
4,663,228
5,824,715
6,414,824
7,711,194
9,579,677
11,196,730
14,229,191
16,986,510
20,851,820
24,782,302
U.S.
23,191,876
31,443,321
39,818,449
50,155,783
62,947,714
75,994,575
91,972,266
105,710,620
122,775,046
131,669,275
150,697,361
179,323,175
203,302,031
226,545,805
248,709,873
281,421,906
307,006,550
Percent Change
Texas
--184.2
35.5
94.5
40.4
36.4
27.8
19.7
24.9
10.1
20.2
24.2
16.9
27.1
19.4
22.8
18.8
U.S.
--35.6
26.6
26.0
25.5
20.7
21.0
14.9
16.1
7.2
14.5
19.0
13.4
11.4
9.8
13.2
9.1
*Source:
Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census and population estimates. Values
for years ending in 0 reference April 1 of the year. Value for 2009 is an estimate for July 1.
4
Components of Change,
U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009
United States
Texas
Percent
of Total
Change
Component
Numeric
Change
Total Change
25,584,644
100.0
3,930,482
100.0
15,875,579
62.1
2,124,124
54.0
----
---
848,702
21.6
9,709,065
37.9
957,656
24.4
Natural Increase
Net Domestic Migration
Net International Migration
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Numeric
Change
Percent
of Total
Change
Percent of United States Population Change
Due to Immigration and Natural Increase,
1820 to 2005
Time Period
1820-30
1830-40
1840-50
1850-60
1860-70
1870-80
1880-90
1890-1900
1900-10
1910-20
1920-30
1930-40
1940-50
1950-60
1960-70
1970-80
1980-90
1990-2000
2000-2005
0%
20%
40%
60%
Percent
Components of Change
Immigration
Natural Increase
Source: Texas State Data Center
80%
100%
Immigration into the United States, by Period and Area of
Origin of Immigrants, 1820-2005 (numbers in thousands)
Percent by Area of Origin
Number of
Time Period Immigrants
1820-1830
1831-1840
1841-1850
1851-1860
1861-1870
1871-1880
1881-1890
1891-1900
1901-1910
1911-1920
1921-1930
1931-1940
1941-1950
1951-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-1999
2000-2005
152
599
1,713
2,598
2,315
2,812
5,247
3,688
8,795
5,736
4,107
528
1,035
2,515
3,322
4,493
7,338a
8,246
5,743
Europe
Asia
Canada
Latin
America
Africa
All
Other
70.14
82.73
93.24
94.40
89.21
80.79
90.26
96.41
91.59
75.35
59.97
65.77
60.01
52.70
33.82
17.81
10.38
14.87
15.48
0.02
0.01
0.01
1.60
2.80
4.42
1.33
2.03
3.68
4.31
2.73
3.14
3.58
6.09
12.87
35.35
37.31
30.80
33.64
1.64
2.27
2.44
2.28
6.65
13.64
7.50
0.09
2.07
12.94
22.51
20.54
16.59
15.03
12.44
3.78
2.14
2.07
1.85
6.23
3.30
2.93
0.60
0.56
0.73
0.65
0.97
2.07
7.00
14.42
9.74
17.69
24.61
39.23
41.19
47.13
47.53
41.93
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.08
0.15
0.15
0.33
0.71
0.56
0.87
1.80
2.41
3.81
6.24
21.96
11.68
1.38
1.11
0.77
0.42
0.24
0.49
0.54
0.25
0.22
0.48
142
10.01
0.77
0.07
0.63
0.92
0.86
aa
Includes persons who were granted permanent residence under the legalization
program of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.
Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, Washington, DC: U.S. Department of
Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics
Ten Largest States in the United States by
Population Size in 2009: Population in 2000 and 2009
State
2000
Population*
2009
Population*
Change 2000-2009
Numeric
Percent
California
33,871,648
36,961,664
3,090,016
9.1
Texas
20,851,820
24,782,302
3,930,482
18.8
New York
18,976,457
19,541,453
564,996
3.0
Florida
15,982,378
18,537,969
2,555,591
16.0
Illinois
12,419,293
12,910,409
491,116
4.0
Pennsylvania
12,281,054
12,604,767
323,713
2.6
Ohio
11,353,140
11,542,645
189,505
1.7
Michigan
9,938,444
9,969,727
31,283
0.3
Georgia
8,186,453
9,829,211
1,642,758
20.1
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,380,884
1,331,571
16.5
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau, Population Division
8
Ten States in the United States with
Largest Numeric Population Increase: 2000-2009
State
2000
Population*
2009
Population*
Change 2000-2009
Numeric
Percent
Texas
20,851,820
24,782,302
3,930,482
18.8
California
33,871,648
36,961,664
3,090,016
9.1
Florida
15,982,378
18,537,969
2,555,591
16.0
Georgia
8,186,453
9,829,211
1,642,758
20.1
Arizona
5,130,632
6,595,778
1,465,146
28.6
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,380,884
1,331,571
16.5
Virginia
7,078,515
7,882,590
804,075
11.4
Washington
5,894,121
6,664,195
770,074
13.1
Colorado
4,301,261
5,024,748
723,487
16.8
Nevada
1,998,257
2,643,085
644,828
32.3
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau, Population Division
10
Ten States in the United States with Largest Percentage
Population Increases: 2000-2009
State
2000
Population*
2009
Population*
Change 2000-2009
Numeric
Percent
Nevada
1,998,257
2,643,085
644,828
32.3
Arizona
5,130,632
6,595,778
1,465,146
28.6
Utah
2,233,169
2,784,572
551,403
24.7
Georgia
8,186,453
9,829,211
1,642,758
20.1
Idaho
1,293,953
1,545,801
251,848
19.5
Texas
20,851,820
24,782,302
3,930,482
18.8
Colorado
4,301,261
5,024,748
723,487
16.8
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,380,884
1,331,571
16.5
15,982,378
18,537,969
2,555,591
16.0
4,012,012
4,561,242
549,230
13.7
Florida
South Carolina
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau, Population Division
11
Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent C hange 1990-2000
< 0.0% (n=68)
0.0 - 9.9% (n=61)
10.0 - 21.9% (n=66)
22.0 - 86.2% (n=59)
Texas Regional Councils
of Governments
Councils of Governments in Texas Ranked by Total Population in 2009:
Total Population in 2000 and 2009; Numeric and Percent Change, 2000-2009;
and Percent of the State Population (2009) and State Population Change
Total Population
Council of Government
North Central Texas
Houston-Galveston
Alamo Area
Capital Area
Lower Rio Grande Valley
East Texas
Rio Grande
Coastal Bend
Central Texas
Panhandle
Permian Basin
South Plains
South East Texas
Deep East Texas
Heart of Texas
South Texas
West Central Texas
Brazos Valley
Ark-Tex
Nortex
Texoma
Golden Crescent
Middle Rio Grande
Concho Valley
State of Texas
Population Change
Percent of State
Population Change,
2009
2000-09
26.7
33.2
24.2
29.3
8.8
9.4
7.3
12.0
4.7
5.9
3.3
1.7
3.1
1.8
2.3
0.3
1.7
1.2
1.7
0.3
1.6
0.7
1.6
0.5
2000
5,309,270
4,854,447
1,807,877
1,346,835
924,780
745,180
704,318
549,014
374,513
402,856
376,670
377,870
2009
6,614,889
6,005,334
2,175,874
1,816,818
1,157,918
813,566
775,920
559,067
422,767
415,856
402,277
397,355
Numeric
1,305,619
1,150,887
367,997
469,983
233,138
68,386
71,602
10,053
48,254
13,000
25,607
19,485
%
24.6
23.7
20.4
34.9
25.2
9.2
10.2
1.8
12.9
3.2
6.8
5.2
385,090
355,861
321,533
264,177
324,897
267,087
270,475
224,362
178,202
183,906
154,385
148,213
378,477
369,671
345,308
323,142
317,539
301,428
278,570
217,270
191,679
187,532
163,408
150,637
-6,613
13,810
23,775
58,965
-7,358
34,341
8,095
-7,092
13,477
3,626
9,023
2,424
-1.7
3.9
7.4
22.3
-2.3
12.9
3.0
-3.2
7.6
2.0
5.8
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
-0.2
0.4
0.6
1.5
-0.2
0.9
0.2
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
20,851,818 24,782,302
3,930,484
18.8
100.0
100.0
Texas Metropolitan
Statistical Areas
Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Texas Ranked by Numerical Change
Between 2000 and 2009: Total Population in 2000 and 2009 and
Numeric (U.S. Rank) and Percent Change, 2000-2009
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown
Austin-Round Rock
San Antonio
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
El Paso
Brownsville-Harlingen
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood
Laredo
Tyler
College Station-Bryan
Lubbock
Amarillo
Waco
Midland
Odessa
Longview
Corpus Christi
Sherman-Denison
Texarkana /AR
San Angelo
Victoria
Abilene
Wichita Falls
Beaumont-Port Arthur
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Total Population
2000
2009
5,161,544 6,447,615
4,715,407 5,867,489
1,249,763 1,705,075
1,711,703 2,072,128
569,463
741,152
679,622
751,296
335,227
396,371
330,714
379,231
193,117
241,438
174,706
204,665
184,885
212,268
249,700
276,659
226,522
246,474
213,517
233,378
116,009
132,316
121,123
134,625
194,042
206,874
403,280
416,095
110,595
120,030
129,749
137,486
105,781
110,119
111,663
115,396
160,245
160,070
151,524
147,421
385,090
378,477
Population Change
Numeric (Rank) %
1,286,078
(1) 24.9
1,152,072
(3) 24.4
455,329
(12) 36.4
360,412
(17) 21.1
171,681
(34) 30.1
71,674
(71) 10.5
61,144
(84) 18.2
48,522
(97) 14.7
48,321
(99) 25.0
29,959
(133) 17.1
27,383
(139) 14.8
26,962
(141) 10.8
19,952
(171) 8.8
19,859
(174) 9.3
16,307
(198) 14.1
13,502
(212) 11.1
12,832
(215) 6.6
12,813
(217) 3.2
9,435
(240) 8.5
7,732
(257) 6.0
4,338
(286) 4.1
3,728
(292) 3.3
-171
(318) -0.1
-4,103
(340) -2.7
-6,613
(349) -1.7
Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2003
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent Change 2000-2003
< 0.0% (n=98)
0.0 - 1.9% (n=50)
2.0 - 5.4% (n=53)
5.5 - 28.2% (n=53)
Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2006
Source: Prepared from U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2006
County Estimates by the Texas State Data Center, The
University of Texas at San Antonio
Percent C hange 2000-2006
< 0.0% (n=103)
0.0 - 2.9% (n=40)
3.0 - 6.0% (n=38)
6.1 - 60.5% (n=73)
Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2008
Population of the United States by Regions, 1900-2000
Population (in thousands)a
United States/
Regions
1900
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
United States
76,212
151,326
179,323
203,302
226,546
248,710
281,422
21.7
25.9
33.3
19.1
20.4
24.0
34.4
21.2
19.0
22.9
35.6
22.5
Regionsb
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Percent by Region
27.6
34.5
32.2
5.7
26.1
29.4
31.2
13.3
24.9
28.8
30.7
15.6
24.1
27.9
30.9
17.1
Proportion of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity
in Each Region in 2000
Region
Total
White
Black
Other
Hispanic
Anglo
Northeast
19.0
19.6
17.3
18.4
14.9
20.1
Midwest
22.9
25.5
19.0
12.5
8.8
26.8
South
35.6
34.4
54.5
20.7
32.8
33.8
West
22.5
20.5
9.2
48.4
43.5
19.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
U.S. Total
Population, Percent Population Change, and Proportion of
Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and the United States,
1980-1990
Number
Ethnic
Category
1980
1990
Proportion of
Population
Percent
Change
1980-90
1980
1990
Texas
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
9,350,297
1,692,542
2,985,824
200,528
10,291,680
1,976,360
4,339,905
378,565
10.1
16.8
45.4
88.8
65.7
11.9
21.0
1.4
60.6
11.6
25.6
2.2
14,229,191
16,986,510
19.4
100.0
100.0
75.7
11.7
9.0
3.6
United States
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
180,602,838
26,091,857
14,603,683
5,247,427
188,128,296
29,216,293
22,354,059
9,011,225
4.2
12.0
53.1
71.7
79.7
11.5
6.5
2.3
Total
226,545,805
248,709,873
9.8
100.0
100.0
Source: Texas State Data Center using 1980 Census Sample Data and 1990 Summary Tape File 1 (STF 1) – 100-Percent Data
Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion
of Population by Race/Ethnicity
for Texas and the United States, 1990 and 2000
Ethnic
Category
Number
1990
2000
Proportion of
Population
Percent
Change
1990-2000
1990
2000
Texas
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
10,291,680
1,976,360
4,339,905
378,565
11,074,716
2,421,653
6,669,666
685,785
7.6
22.5
53.7
81.2
60.6
11.6
25.6
2.2
53.1
11.6
32.0
3.3
Total
16,986,510
20,851,820
22.8
100.0
100.0
United States
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
188,128,296
29,216,293
22,354,059
9,011,225
197,165,673
35,195,894
35,305,818
13,754,521
4.8
20.5
57.9
52.6
75.7
11.7
9.0
3.6
70.1
12.5
12.5
4.9
Total
248,709,873
281,421,906
13.2
100.0
100.0
Source: Texas State Data Center
Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of
Total Population by Ethnicity for Texas and the United
States,
2000 and 2009
Population
Race/Ethnic Category
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
2000
Texas
10,986,965
2,378,444
816,745
6,669,666
20,851,820
2009
11,583,116
2,812,015
1,239,115
9,148,056
24,782,302
Percent
Change
20002009
Proportion of
Population
2000
2009
5.4
18.2
51.7
37.2
18.8
52.7
11.4
3.9
32.0
100.0
46.7
11.3
5.0
36.9
100.0
2.2
9.8
29.7
37.1
9.1
69.5
12.2
5.8
12.5
100.0
65.1
12.3
6.9
15.8
100.0
United States
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic*
Hispanic
Total
195,575,485
34,313,007
16,227,596
35,305,818
281,421,906
199,851,240
37,681,544
21,054,442
48,419,324
307,006,550
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage
Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of
Total Population by Ethnicity for Bexar County and Texas,
2000 and 2009
Percent
Change
20002009
2000
2009
516,932
111,859
60,057
962,600
1,651,448
3.3
15.6
55.4
27.2
18.6
35.9
6.9
2.8
54.3
100.0
31.3
6.8
3.6
58.3
100.0
11,583,116
2,812,015
1,239,115
9,148,056
24,782,302
5.4
18.2
51.7
37.2
18.8
Population
Race/Ethnic Category
2000
2009
Proportion of
Population
Bexar County
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
500,477
96,768
38,653
757,033
1,392,931
Texas
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
10,986,965
2,378,444
816,745
6,669,666
20,851,820
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage
52.7
11.4
3.9
32.0
100.0
46.7
11.3
5.0
36.9
100.0
Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of
Total Population by Ethnicity for Dallas County and Texas,
2000 and 2009
Population
Race/Ethnic Category
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
2000
2009
Dallas County
989,665
448,697
117,808
662,729
2,218,899
Texas
10,986,965
2,378,444
816,745
6,669,666
20,851,820
Percent
Change
20002009
844,279
492,238
147,665
967,548
2,451,730
11,583,116
2,812,015
1,239,115
9,148,056
24,782,302
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage
-14.7
9.7
25.3
46.0
10.5
5.4
18.2
51.7
37.2
18.8
Proportion of
Population
2000
44.6
20.2
5.3
29.9
100.0
52.7
11.4
3.9
32.0
100.0
2009
34.4
20.1
6.0
39.5
100.0
46.7
11.3
5.0
36.9
100.0
Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of
Total Population by Ethnicity for Harris County and Texas,
2000 and 2009
Population
Race/Ethnic Category
2000
2009
Percent
Change
20002009
Proportion of
Population
2000
2009
Harris County
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
1,444,160
623,637
213,030
1,119,751
3,400,578
1,438,913
730,010
282,640
1,619,426
4,070,989
-0.4
17.1
32.7
44.6
19.7
42.5
18.3
6.3
32.9
100.0
35.3
17.9
6.9
39.8
100.0
11,583,116
2,812,015
1,239,115
9,148,056
24,782,302
5.4
18.2
51.7
37.2
18.8
52.7
11.4
3.9
32.0
100.0
46.7
11.3
5.0
36.9
100.0
Texas
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
10,986,965
2,378,444
816,745
6,669,666
20,851,820
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage
Population, Percent Change in Population and
Proportion of Population by Ethnicity for Texas and the
United States, 2000 and 2008
Population
Race/Ethnic Category
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
2000
Texas
10,933,313
2,364,255
884,586
6,669,666
20,851,820
2008
11,525,623
2,748,323
1,182,553
8,870,475
24,326,974
Percent
Change
20002008
Proportion of
Population
2000
2008
5.4
16.2
33.7
33.0
16.7
52.4
11.3
4.2
32.0
100.0
47.4
11.3
4.9
36.5
100.0
2.5
9.5
16.1
33.0
8.0
69.1
12.1
6.3
12.5
100.0
65.6
12.2
6.7
15.4
100.0
United States
White Alone, Not Hispanic
Black Alone, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
194,552,774
33,947,837
17,615,477
35,305,818
281,421,906
199,491,458
37,171,750
20,452,903
46,943,613
304,059,724
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and Population Estimates, 2008
Latino Population (1000s) in 1990 and 2000 and
Percentage Growth for Top 20 States in 2000
State
1990
2000
% Growth
California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
New Jersey
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
Washington
Georgia
Massachusetts
Pennsylvania
Nevada
North Carolina
Virginia
Michigan
Connecticut
Oregon
Maryland
7,688
4,340
2,214
1,574
904
740
668
579
424
215
109
288
232
124
77
160
202
213
113
125
10,967
6,670
2,868
2,683
1,530
1,117
1,066
765
736
442
435
429
394
394
379
330
324
320
275
228
42
53
29
70
69
51
59
32
73
106
299
49
70
218
392
106
60
50
143
82
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census (2000) Summary File 1. Census of
Population (1990), General Population Characteristics (CP-1-1)
“The Demographic Foundations of the Latino Population” by Jorge Durand,
Edward Telles, and Jennifer Flashman in Chapter 3 in Hispanics and the
Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National
Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
Hispanic Origin Population (1000s) in
2000 and 2007 and Percentage
Change for Top 20 States in 2007
2000 Census
.California
10,967
.Texas
6,670
.Florida
2,683
.New York
2,868
.Illinois
1,530
.Arizona
1,296
.New Jersey
1,117
.Colorado
736
.New Mexico
765
.Georgia
435
.Nevada
394
.North Carolina
379
.Washington
442
.Pennsylvania
394
.Massachusetts
429
.Virginia
330
.Connecticut
320
.Michigan
324
.Oregon
275
.Maryland
228
2007
13,221
8,600
3,756
3,162
1,920
1,878
1,382
966
875
741
644
638
610
556
528
508
403
403
396
356
% Growth
2000-2007
20.6
28.9
40.0
10.3
25.5
44.9
23.7
31.3
14.4
70.3
63.5
68.3
38.0
41.1
23.1
53.9
25.9
24.4
44.0
56.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 from Summary File 1 Table QT-P9; 2007 from Population
Estimates, Table SC-EST2007-04
Birth-Death Ratios by Hispanic Origin,
United States and Texas, 2000-2006
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Birth-Death Ratio
U.S. Total
U.S. Hispanic
U.S. Non-Hispanic
Texas Total
Texas Hispanic
Source: U.S. data from U.S. Census Bureau. Texas data from Texas State Data Center
Texas Non-Hispanic
Median Age in the United States and
Texas,
1900-2007
40.0
35.3
35.0
29.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
22.9
18.7
24.1
26.5
25.3
30.1
30.0
29.5
28.0
28.1
27.9
27.0
26.8
26.4
32.9
30.8
32.3
36.6
33.1
23.7
22.0
20.2
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
United States
1970
Texas
1980
1990
2000
2007
Percent Change in Population by Age Group
in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000
Percent Change
70
60.3
60
49.4
50
40
30
20
24
21.7
20.7
16.3
13.7
15.3
14.8
12
5.3
10
1.5
0
<18
18-24
25-44
45-54
Age Groups
United States
Texas
55-64
65+
Percent Change in Population by Age Group
in the United States and Texas, 2000-2007
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
< 18 years
18-24 years
25-44 years
45-54 years
-10.00%
United States
Texas
55-64 years
65+ years
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2000
Percent
80.0
72.6
66.4
67.1
63.5
60.2
60.0
57.2
53.0
47.8
44.0
40.0
39.5
45.0
45.0
41.641.3
38.0
38.4
43.1
40.5
44.4
38.6
35.3
30.5
26.7
20.0
24.2
22.4
20.6
20.3
16.7
0.0
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
Hispanic
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2040*
80.0
70.0
Percent
69.9
67.8
66.5
65.5
66.0
66.8
66.4
64.3
62.6
60.6
60.0
56.7
55.2
52.3
50.0
39.8
37.1
40.0
30.0
20.0
25.3
17.7
19.3
19.9
20.3
19.8
19.3
19.4
20.5
20.6
26.5
27.2
21.9
10.0
0.0
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
* Proj ections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Hispanic
Percent of United States Population By
Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000
Percent
16.4
21.5
21.7
23.4
25.8
78.5
78.3
76.6
74.2
28.1
71.9
31
34.8
38.1
69
65.2
61.9
38.9
40
36.9
37.2
40.1
41.6
61.1
62.8
59.9
58.4
60
63.1
80
83.6
100
20
0
<
5
s
ar
e
y
5
rs
to
9
a
ye
10
to
14
s
ar
e
y
15
to
19
s
ar
e
y
20
to
24
s
ar
e
y
25
to
29
s
ar
e
y
30
to
34
s
ar
e
y
Anglo
35
to
39
s
ar
e
y
40
to
44
s
ar
e
y
Non-anglo
45
to
49
s
ar
e
y
50
to
54
s
ar
e
y
55
to
59
s
ar
e
y
60
to
64
rs
s
ar
e
y
65
+
a
ye
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Median Household Income in the
United States by Age of Householder, 1999
Dollars
$56,917
$60,000
$50,873
$44,597
$50,000
$42,174
$40,000
$30,000
$27,304
$25,171
$19,161
$20,000
$10,000
$0
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Age of Householder
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Money Income in the United States: 1999, Current Population Report P60-209
Median Household Income in the United
States by Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with
Percent Change 1989 to 1999
Median
Household Income
Race/Ethnicity
of Householder
1989
(in 1999 dollars)
Total
1999
Percent
Change
1989-99
$ 39,009
$ 41,994
7.7
Anglo
41,106
45,367
10.4
Black
25,643
29,423
14.7
Hispanic*
31,351
33,676
7.4
Asian
48,030
51,908
8.1
*Hispanics can be of any race.
Median Household Income In 1999 in
Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder
$60,000
$50,049
$47,162
$50,000
$40,000
$29,305
$29,873
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Educational Attainment in 2000
in Texas for Persons 25+ Years
of Age By Race/Ethnicity
_____________________________________
Percent
< High School
High School
Hispanic
Black
Anglo
Asian
Some College
College or More
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College
Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001
by Selected Characteristics
SAT Score
Mean
Verbal
Mean
Math
506
514
Race/Ethnicity:
American Indian
African American or Black
Hispanic: Mexican American
Puerto Rican
Other Hispanic
White
Asian American or Pacific Islander
481
433
451
457
460
529
501
479
426
458
451
465
531
566
Household Income:
< $10,000
$10,000 - 20,000
$20,000 - 30,000
$30,000 - 40,000
$40,000 - 50,000
$50,000 - 60,000
$60,000 - 70,000
$70,000 - 80,000
$80,000 - 100,000
> $100,000
421
442
468
487
501
509
516
522
534
557
443
456
474
489
503
512
519
527
540
569
Characteristic
All Students
(N = 1,276,320)
PROJECTIONS
Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and
Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
(Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands)
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
All other
White alone Black alone Asian alone
(any race)
races
195,771
34,414
10,436
5,909
35,629
200,853
37,985
14,083
7,586
49,726
205,255
41,847
18,308
9,612
66,365
207,217
45,461
22,991
11,904
85,931
206,065
48,780
28,064
14,523
108,223
203,347
51,949
33,418
17,503
132,792
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Total
282,158
310,233
341,387
373,504
405,655
439,010
Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by
Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)
156.9
97.2
17.5
23.0
11.6
7.6
Non-Hispanic
White alone
Non-Hispanic
Black alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Non-Hispanic
Asian alone
Non-Hispanic all
other races
Hispanic (any
race)
Total
Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and
Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
All other
White alone Black alone Asian alone
(any race)
races
69.4
12.2
3.7
2.1
12.6
64.7
12.2
4.5
2.4
16.0
60.1
12.3
5.4
2.8
19.4
55.5
12.2
6.2
3.2
23.0
50.8
12.0
6.9
3.6
26.7
46.3
11.8
7.6
4.0
30.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Percent Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and
Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
272.7
220.2
196.2
55.6
51.0
3.9
Non-Hispanic
White alone
Non-Hispanic
Black alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Non-Hispanic
Asian alone
Non-Hispanic all
other races
Hispanic (any
race)
Total
Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race
and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Non-Hispanic White
alone
5%
Non-Hispanic Black
alone
11%
Non-Hispanic Asian
alone
15%
Hispanic
62%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Non-Hispanic Other
7%
Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population:
2000 to 2050
Age Group
Under 5 years
5 to 19 years
20 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 to 84 years
85 years and over
(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.4
21.7
20.3
19.9
19.7
19.4
19.3
36.9
33.8
32.7
32.0
31.5
31.7
22.1
26.1
24.7
22.6
22.7
22.4
10.9
11.1
14.1
17.0
16.5
15.8
1.5
1.9
1.9
2.3
3.5
4.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Percent Age Distribution of the U.S. Population by
Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
(Percent of each race/origin group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White alone
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5.8
8.0
6.5
12.5
10.5
16.9
23.2
17.5
28.1
24.4
8.6
11.0
11.0
11.4
13.4
29.3
30.8
36.0
26.7
33.0
24.5
18.8
21.1
15.9
13.8
15.0
8.2
7.8
5.4
4.9
7.7
5.4
1.9
4.7
2.6
0.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
4.8
2.4
0.6
3.3
1.7
0.5
3.1
1.4
0.4
Total
100.0
6.8
18.8
9.7
30.1
22.1
12.4
6.5
4.4
1.5
Projected Percent Age Distribution of the U.S.
Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2030
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
(Percent of each race/origin group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White alone
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5.2
6.5
5.3
11.2
9.1
14.5
17.6
13.9
25.7
22.6
7.9
9.5
8.3
11.7
11.7
24.0
28.0
27.7
25.6
27.1
23.6
22.8
28.1
15.6
19.4
24.8
15.6
16.7
10.1
10.0
12.8
8.8
3.2
9.2
4.9
1.5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
9.7
5.5
1.5
5.8
3.3
1.0
6.1
2.9
1.0
Total
100.0
6.5
17.0
9.1
25.5
22.6
19.3
10.4
6.6
2.3
Projected Percent Age Distribution of the U.S.
Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2050
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
(Percent of each race/origin group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White alone
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5.1
6.0
5.0
10.4
8.3
13.8
16.0
13.2
24.0
21.4
7.7
8.8
7.6
11.1
11.2
23.8
25.8
25.8
26.3
27.0
24.1
24.3
26.2
17.4
18.9
25.5
19.1
22.2
10.8
13.2
10.7
8.4
6.3
9.4
6.2
3.6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
11.1
7.7
3.4
5.6
3.3
1.9
6.6
4.5
2.2
Total
100.0
6.4
16.7
9.0
25.3
22.4
20.2
9.1
6.7
4.3
Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S.
Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
Non-Hispanic
White alone
69.4
58.7
62.1
62.0
67.4
76.7
83.7
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
81.6
85.8
86.9
(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
12.2
3.7
2.1
12.6
14.4
3.6
3.8
19.5
15.0
3.4
3.1
16.4
13.9
4.2
2.5
17.4
12.5
4.4
1.9
13.8
10.4
3.5
1.5
7.9
8.0
2.3
0.9
5.0
8.7
7.2
7.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
2.7
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.7
5.9
4.1
3.6
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin
Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age
Groups: 2030
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
Non-Hispanic
White alone
55.5
44.7
47.1
48.2
52.3
58.0
71.2
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
68.2
73.9
77.0
(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
12.2
6.2
3.2
23.0
12.2
5.1
5.5
32.5
12.6
5.0
4.8
30.5
12.6
5.6
4.1
29.4
13.4
6.7
3.2
24.4
12.3
7.7
2.2
19.8
9.8
5.3
1.7
12.0
10.8
9.1
7.7
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
5.7
5.1
4.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
13.5
10.3
9.9
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin
Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age
Groups: 2050
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
Non-Hispanic
White alone
46.3
37.1
38.3
39.6
43.6
49.7
58.5
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
54.5
58.2
67.4
(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
11.8
7.6
4.0
30.2
11.1
5.9
6.5
39.4
11.3
6.0
5.7
38.6
11.6
6.4
4.9
37.5
12.1
7.8
4.1
32.4
12.8
8.9
3.1
25.5
11.2
8.4
2.1
19.8
12.1
10.9
9.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
9.3
8.8
5.9
2.4
2.0
1.8
21.7
20.2
15.1
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Percent Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Age:
2000 to 2050
343.2
125.6
46.6
0-4
57.7
38.3
33.6
5-19
20-44
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
45-64
65-84
85 and older
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections
of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Year
Non-Hispanic
White
Black
2000
11,074,716
2,421,653
Hispanic
6,669,666
Other
Total
685,785
20,851,820
783,215
841,642
878,111
893,152
22,802,983
24,330,687
25,449,114
26,085,109
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,331,876
11,381,134
11,171,448
10,733,060
2,627,287
2,771,406
2,823,276
2,796,623
8,060,605
9,336,505
10,576,279
11,662,274
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,533,976
11,796,448
11,789,274
11,525,089
2,754,751
3,052,417
3,268,623
3,403,163
9,080,459
11,882,980
15,140,100
18,804,311
961,460
1,273,895
1,632,578
2,028,602
24,330,646
28,005,740
31,830,575
35,761,165
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,740,011
12,227,572
12,442,120
12,376,306
2,888,474
3,361,698
3,783,666
4,140,679
10,252,202
15,226,394
21,871,385
30,604,633
1,177,908
1,921,052
3,020,460
4,585,923
26,058,595
32,736,716
41,117,631
51,707,541
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,441,595
11,612,122
11,525,269
11,196,427
2,925,751
3,447,896
3,922,900
4,341,627
9,847,852
13,940,031
18,973,424
25,090,745
1,158,749
1,858,400
2,863,893
4,243,239
25,373,947
30,858,449
37,285,486
44,872,038
Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population
in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex
and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
Period
Non-Hispanic
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
14.2
7.5
4.3
1.7
30.2
9.4
6.7
4.6
2.5
25.1
Assuming Zero Net Migration
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
2.3
0.4
-1.8
-3.9
-3.1
8.5
5.5
1.9
-0.9
15.5
20.9
15.8
13.3
10.3
74.9
Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
4.1
2.3
-0.1
-2.2
4.1
13.8
10.8
7.1
4.1
40.5
36.1
30.9
27.4
24.2
181.9
40.2
32.5
28.2
24.3
195.8
16.7
15.1
13.7
12.3
71.5
Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
6.0
4.2
1.8
-0.5
11.8
19.3
16.4
12.6
9.4
71.0
53.7
48.5
43.6
39.9
358.9
71.8
63.1
57.2
51.8
568.7
25.0
25.6
25.6
25.8
148.0
Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
3.3
1.5
-0.7
-2.9
1.1
20.8
17.8
13.8
10.7
79.3
47.7
41.6
36.1
32.2
276.2
69.0
60.4
54.1
48.2
518.7
21.7
21.6
20.8
20.3
115.2
Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in
2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by
Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Year
Non-Hispanic
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
2000
53.1
11.6
32.0
3.3
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2010
2020
2030
2040
49.8
46.7
43.8
41.2
11.5
11.4
11.1
10.7
35.3
38.4
41.6
44.7
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.4
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
47.4
42.2
37.0
32.2
11.3
10.9
10.3
9.5
37.3
42.4
47.6
52.6
4.0
4.5
5.1
5.7
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
45.1
37.3
30.3
23.9
11.1
10.3
9.2
8.0
39.3
46.5
53.2
59.2
4.5
5.9
7.3
8.9
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
45.1
37.6
30.9
24.9
11.5
11.2
10.5
9.7
38.8
45.2
50.9
55.9
4.6
6.0
7.7
9.5
Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Anglo
in 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios
2000
2040
(1.0 Scenario)
2040
2040
(0.5 Scenario)
(2000-2004 Scenario)
Percent Anglo Population
Less Than 50% Anglo Population
50% or Greater Anglo Population
Source: 2006 Population Projections, Texas State Data Center,
Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
The University of Texas at San Antonio
Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and
Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from
2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and
Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
Age
Group
Non-Hispanic
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
26.1
11.2
37.7
20.1
4.9
28.2
10.6
31.1
20.2
9.9
All Scenarios
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
23.0
8.8
30.1
24.4
13.7
31.7
11.2
32.1
17.7
7.3
35.8
13.2
31.8
14.0
5.2
Assuming Rates of Zero Migration
2020
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
20.1
8.2
24.7
27.4
19.6
24.8
10.2
29.3
25.0
10.7
32.0
11.1
26.9
21.5
8.5
21.2
9.1
24.0
29.9
15.8
25.2
9.6
26.1
24.9
14.2
17.4
7.6
24.1
24.9
26.0
19.9
8.8
27.6
26.5
17.2
27.5
10.0
27.1
20.6
14.8
16.8
6.5
23.7
22.1
30.9
22.2
8.7
25.9
23.0
20.2
2040
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties,
2000
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=66)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
20.0 or more (n=38)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040*
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=2)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)
20.0 or more (n=154)
* Assuming rates of migration equal to 2000-2004
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimates
and Projections Program, 2006 Projections.
Percent of Net Change in Texas Population from 2000-2040 Due to
Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Alternative Scenarios of
Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
Race
Number
Percent
Assuming Zero Net Migration
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-341,656
374,970
4,992,608
207,367
5,233,289
-6.6
7.2
95.4
4.0
100.0
Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
450,373
981,510
12,134,645
1,342,817
14,909,345
3.0
6.6
81.4
9.0
100.0
Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
1,301,590
1,719,026
23,934,967
3,900,138
30,855,721
4.2
5.6
77.6
12.6
100.0
Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
121,711
1,919,974
18,421,079
3,557,454
24,020,218
0.5
8.0
76.7
14.8
100.0
U.S. EDUCATION
Projected Elementary and Secondary School,
Community College and Public University Enrollment
in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050
Year
Non-Hispanic
White
Non-Hispanic
Black
Hispanic
Origin
Non-Hispanic
Other
Total
5,577,745
6,911,552
8,545,532
10,190,591
12,027,667
14,123,748
76,773,521
79,942,160
85,772,683
92,823,636
99,454,975
107,326,684
Total Enrollment
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
48,210,516
45,818,641
44,987,166
44,729,776
43,321,445
42,431,107
11,401,765
11,372,040
11,616,295
12,139,946
12,364,257
12,801,740
11,583,495
15,839,927
20,623,690
25,763,323
31,741,606
37,970,089
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
36,491,940
33,735,042
33,566,335
33,328,448
31,941,753
31,386,808
9,163,622
8,825,219
8,984,880
9,393,383
9,463,222
9,786,556
9,695,332
13,412,715
17,413,828
21,607,545
26,572,664
31,637,838
3,917,404
4,858,347
6,023,510
7,063,674
8,308,712
9,745,502
59,268,298
60,831,323
65,988,553
71,393,050
76,286,351
82,556,704
1,660,341
2,053,205
2,522,022
3,126,917
3,718,955
4,378,246
17,505,223
19,110,837
19,784,130
21,430,586
23,168,624
24,769,980
College Enrollment
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
11,718,576
12,083,599
11,420,831
11,401,328
11,379,692
11,044,299
2,238,143
2,546,821
2,631,415
2,746,563
2,901,035
3,015,184
1,888,163
2,427,212
3,209,862
4,155,778
5,168,942
6,332,251
Percent of Projected Elementary and Secondary School,
Community College and Public University Enrollment
in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050
Year
Non-Hispanic
White
Non-Hispanic
Black
Hispanic
Origin
Non-Hispanic
Other
15.1
19.8
24.0
27.8
31.9
35.4
7.3
8.6
10.0
11.0
12.1
13.2
Total Enrollment
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
62.7
57.4
52.5
48.1
43.6
39.5
14.9
14.2
13.5
13.1
12.4
11.9
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
61.5
55.5
50.9
46.6
41.9
38.0
15.5
14.5
13.6
13.2
12.4
11.9
16.4
22.0
26.4
30.3
34.8
38.3
6.6
8.0
9.1
9.9
10.9
11.8
10.8
12.7
16.2
19.4
22.3
25.6
9.5
10.7
12.7
14.6
16.1
17.7
College Enrollment
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
66.9
63.3
57.8
53.2
49.1
44.5
12.8
13.3
13.3
12.8
12.5
12.2
Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Elementary
and Secondary School, Community College and Public University
Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050
Year
Non-Hispanic
White
Non-Hispanic
Black
Hispanic
Origin
Non-Hispanic
Other
Total
Total Enrollment
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
2000-2050
-5.0
-1.8
-0.6
-3.1
-2.1
-12.0
-0.3
2.1
4.5
1.8
3.5
12.3
36.7
30.2
24.9
23.2
19.6
227.8
23.9
23.6
19.3
18.0
17.4
153.2
4.1
7.3
8.2
7.1
7.9
39.8
24.0
24.0
17.3
17.6
17.3
148.8
2.6
8.5
8.2
6.9
8.2
39.3
23.7
22.8
24.0
18.9
17.7
163.7
9.2
3.5
8.3
8.1
6.9
41.5
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
2000-2050
-7.6
-0.5
-0.7
-4.2
-1.7
-14.0
-3.7
1.8
4.5
0.7
3.4
6.8
38.3
29.8
24.1
23.0
19.1
226.3
College Enrollment
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
2000-2050
3.1
-5.5
-0.2
-0.2
-2.9
-5.8
13.8
3.3
4.4
5.6
3.9
34.7
28.5
32.2
29.5
24.4
22.5
235.4
Percent of Net Change in Elementary and Secondary School,
Community College and Public University Enrollment in the
United States Due to Each Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050
Race
Number
Percent
Total Enrollment
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic Origin
Non-Hispanic Other
Total
-5,779,409
1,399,975
26,386,594
8,546,003
30,553,163
-19.0
4.6
86.4
28.0
100.0
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic Origin
Non-Hispanic Other
Total
-5,105,132
622,934
21,942,506
5,828,098
23,288,406
-21.9
2.7
94.2
25.0
100.0
College Enrollment
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic Origin
Non-Hispanic Other
Total
-674,277
777,041
4,444,088
2,717,905
7,264,757
-9.3
10.7
61.2
37.4
100.0
TEXAS
EDUCATION
Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically
Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas
Public Schools, 1998-99 and 2008-09 School Years
Enrollment
Race/Ethnic Category
White
African American
Other
Hispanic
Total
White
African American
Other
Hispanic
Total
1998-99
2008-09
Economically Disadvantaged
368,387
402,057
364,434
460,703
36,589
57,852
1,146,071
1,765,647
1,915,481
2,686,259
1,746,896
568,757
112,068
1,526,713
3,954,434
Total
1,616,115
671,871
186,487
2,275,098
4,749,571
10-Year Change
Numeric
Percent
33,670
96,269
21,263
619,576
770,778
9.1
26.4
58.1
54.1
40.2
-130,781
103,114
74,419
748,385
795,137
-7.5
18.1
66.4
49.0
20.1
Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2008-09 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf
Enrollment, Percent Change in Enrollment and
Proportion of Enrollment of Economically
Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas
Public Schools, 1998-99 and 2008-09 School Years
Enrollment
Race/Ethnic Category
White
African American
Other
Hispanic
Total
White
African American
Other
Hispanic
Total
1998-99
2008-09
Percent
Change
10-Year
Economically Disadvantaged Students
368,387
402,057
9.1
364,434
460,703
26.4
36,589
57,852
58.1
1,146,071
1,765,647
54.1
1,915,481
2,686,259
40.2
1,746,896
568,757
112,068
1,526,713
3,954,434
All Students
1,616,115
671,871
186,487
2,275,098
4,749,571
-7.5
18.1
66.4
49.0
20.1
Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2008-09 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf
Proportion of
Enrollment
1998-99
2008-09
19.2
19.0
1.9
59.8
100.0
15.0
17.2
2.2
65.7
100.0
44.2
14.4
2.8
38.6
100.0
34.0
14.1
3.9
47.9
100.0
Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, 2000-2001 and 2007-2008
District/County/School Year
Houston ISD (Harris)
2000-2001
2007-2008
Dallas ISD (Dallas)
2000-2001
2007-2008
Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris)
2000-2001
2007-2008
Northside ISD (Bexar)
2000-2001
2007-2008
Austin ISD (Travis)
2000-2001
2007-2008
Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant)
2000-2001
2007-2008
Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend)
2000-2001
2007-2008
Arlington ISD (Tarrant)
2000-2001
2007-2008
North East ISD (Bexar)
2000-2001
2007-2008
El Paso ISD (El Paso)
2000-2001
2007-2008
White (%)
African
American (%)
Hispanic (%)
Asian/Pacific
Islander (%)
Native
American (%)
10.0
8.0
Total
Enrollment
32.1
28.4
54.9
60.3
2.9
3.2
.1
.1
208,462
198,769
7.8
4.8
35.9
28.7
54.5
65.3
1.4
1.0
.4
.2
161,548
157,605
58.5
38.8
10.0
15.2
23.4
37.1
7.9
8.6
.2
.3
63,497
96,546
36.7
25.4
6.6
7.8
54.3
63.2
2.2
3.3
.2
.3
63,739
85,544
33.7
26.4
15.7
12.1
47.8
58.0
2.5
3.3
.3
.2
77,816
82,181
21.4
14.3
30.9
25.6
45.4
58.2
2.1
1.6
.2
.3
79,661
78,732
37.8
24.4
28.0
31.8
18.1
23.0
16.0
20.6
.1
.2
53,999
67,780
47.3
31.4
21.3
23.9
24.0
37.2
6.8
7.1
.6
.4
58,866
62,560
49.1
39.2
9.4
9.4
38.8
47.4
2.5
3.7
.2
.3
50,875
61,910
15.2
12.2
4.8
4.8
78.5
81.3
1.2
1.4
.3
.3
62,325
61,839
*Largest enrollment based on 2007-2008 school year
Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles
Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges and
Health-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008
Public
2-year Colleges
Health-related
Institutions
58.4
52.8
61.3
9.8
11.0
4.9
19.6
28.9
12.6
5.7
3.9
14.6
.5
.5
.5
5.3
2.4
4.8
.7
.5
1.3
414,626
447,998
13,806
White (%)
50.4
45.2
51.3
African American (%)
11.6
11.8
6.6
Hispanic (%)
24.3
34.1
13.8
6.6
4.2
14.5
.5
.5
.6
5.7
2.5
9.7
.9
1.7
3.5
509,136
617,507
20,421
Enrollment by
Race/Ethnicity
Public
Univ
2000 Enrollment
White (%)
African American (%)
Hispanic (%)
Asian (%)
American Indian (%)
International (%)
Unknown (%)
Total 2000 Enrollment
2008 Enrollment
Asian (%)
American Indian (%)
International (%)
Unknown (%)
Total 2008 Enrollment
Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher
Education Coordinating Board (THECB)
Public Elementary and Secondary Public Community
College, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by
Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming
Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
160,507
231,798
326,936
432,828
590,265
4,794,275
5,417,921
6,473,595
7,496,445
8,778,604
114,979
164,425
227,683
287,975
397,902
4,002,227
4,462,255
5,383,249
6,167,800
7,225,599
19,782
29,824
44,330
65,020
88,280
421,078
510,395
593,110
729,755
864,503
25,746
37,549
54,923
79,833
104,083
370,970
445,271
497,236
598,890
688,502
45,528
67,373
99,253
144,853
192,363
792,048
955,666
1,090,346
1,328,645
1,553,005
Total Public Education (All Levels)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2,186,097
2,125,643
2,106,211
1,992,718
1,852,133
661,995
693,172
731,976
746,148
739,828
1,785,676
2,367,308
3,308,472
4,324,751
5,596,378
Public Elementary and Secondary
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
1,727,733
1,643,722
1,643,592
1,527,293
1,411,454
576,977
588,781
619,318
623,104
612,608
1,582,538
2,065,327
2,892,656
3,729,428
4,803,635
Public Community Colleges
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
230,497
239,191
232,120
232,363
220,266
46,742
56,798
62,178
68,156
70,850
124,057
184,582
254,482
364,216
485,107
Public Universities
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
227,867
242,730
230,499
233,062
220,413
38,276
47,593
50,480
54,888
56,370
79,081
117,399
161,334
231,107
307,636
Total Public Colleges and Universities
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
458,364
481,921
462,619
465,425
440,679
85,018
104,391
112,658
123,044
127,220
203,138
301,981
415,816
595,323
792,743
Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, Public
Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas
by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming
Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
37.2
43.7
51.1
57.7
63.8
3.3
4.3
5.1
5.8
6.7
39.5
46.3
53.7
60.5
66.5
2.9
3.7
4.2
4.7
5.5
29.5
36.2
42.9
49.9
56.1
4.7
5.8
7.5
8.9
10.2
21.3
26.4
32.4
38.6
44.7
6.9
8.4
11.0
13.3
15.1
25.6
31.6
38.1
44.8
51.0
5.7
7.0
9.1
10.9
12.4
Public Education (All Levels)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
45.7
39.2
32.5
26.5
21.1
13.8
12.8
11.3
10.0
8.4
Public Elementary and Secondary
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
43.2
36.8
30.6
24.7
19.5
14.4
13.2
11.5
10.1
8.5
Public Community Colleges
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
54.7
46.9
39.1
31.9
25.5
11.1
11.1
10.5
9.3
8.2
Public Universities
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
61.5
54.5
46.4
38.9
32.0
10.3
10.7
10.2
9.2
8.2
Total Public Colleges and Universities
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
58.0
50.5
42.5
35.0
28.4
10.7
10.9
10.3
9.3
8.2
Percent Change in Projected Public Elementary and
Secondary, Public Community College and Public University
Enrollment in Texas Assuming Rates of Net Migration
Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)
Time
Period
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
44.4
41.0
32.4
36.4
267.8
13.0
19.5
15.8
17.1
83.1
43.0
38.5
26.5
38.2
246.1
11.5
20.6
14.6
17.2
80.5
50.8
48.6
46.7
35.8
346.3
21.2
16.2
23.0
18.5
105.3
45.8
46.3
45.4
30.4
304.3
20.0
11.7
20.4
15.0
85.6
48.0
47.3
45.9
32.8
322.5
20.7
14.1
21.9
16.9
96.1
Total Public Education (All Levels)
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
-2.8
-0.9
-5.4
-7.1
-15.3
4.7
5.6
1.9
-0.8
11.8
32.6
39.8
30.7
29.4
213.4
Public Elementary and Secondary Schools
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
-4.9
-0.0
-7.1
-7.6
-18.3
2.0
5.2
0.6
-1.7
6.2
30.5
40.1
28.9
28.8
203.5
Public Community Colleges
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
3.8
-3.0
0.1
-5.2
-4.4
21.5
9.5
9.6
4.0
51.6
48.8
37.9
43.1
33.2
291.0
Public Universities
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
6.5
-5.0
1.1
-5.4
-3.3
24.3
6.1
8.7
2.7
47.3
48.5
37.4
43.2
33.1
289.0
Total Public Colleges and Universities
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
5.1
-4.0
0.6
-5.3
-3.9
22.8
7.9
9.2
3.4
49.6
48.7
37.7
43.2
33.2
290.2
Number and Percent of Net Change in Projected Public Elementary
and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University
Enrollment in Texas Due To Each Race/Ethnicity Group,
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)
Race/
Ethnicity
Number
Percent
Total Public Education (All Levels)
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-333,964
77,833
3,810,702
429,758
3,984,329
-8.4
2.0
95.6
10.8
100.0
Public Elementary and Secondary
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-316,279
35,631
3,221,097
282,923
3,223,372
-9.8
1.1
99.9
8.8
100.0
Public College Colleges
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-10,231
24,108
361,050
68,498
443,425
-2.2
5.4
81.4
15.4
100.0
Public Universities
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-7,454
18,094
228,555
78,337
317,532
-2.4
5.7
72.0
24.7
100.0
Total Public Colleges and Universities
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-17,685
42,202
589,605
146,835
760,957
-2.3
5.5
77.5
19.3
100.0
Future Demands for Specific Programs
76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth
Bilingual/ESL
186.8%
Economically
Disadvantaged
119.9%
Gifted and
Talented
48.5%
Immigrants
183%
Limited English
Proficiency (LEP)
Special Education
188.1%
64.7%
Title 1
Career and Technology
Education
0%
101.9%
69.9%
50%
100%
2000-2040 Percent Change
Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas
150%
200%
Early Childhood
Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population in Texas by Age
Group and Race/Ethnicity and Percent of Total Group Population
for Selected Time Periods
Race/
Ethnicity
Number
Age
<3
Ages
3 to 5
Ages
0 to 5
Percent
Total
Population
Age
<3
Ages
3 to 5
Ages
Total
0 to 5 Population
Census 2000
Anglo
389,504
399,426
788,930
11,074,716
39.8
41.1
40.5
53.1
Black
121,690
124,058
245,748
2,421,653
12.4
12.8
12.6
11.6
Hispanic
435,403
416,493
851,896
6,669,666
44.5
42.9
43.7
32.0
Other
30,841
30,882
61,723
685,785
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
Total
977,438
970,859 1,948,297
20,851,820
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Estimated for 2008
Anglo
401,474
406,601
808,075
11,342,864
34.2
36.3
35.2
46.6
Black
131,036
128,743
259,779
2,823,460
11.2
11.5
11.3
11.6
Hispanic
595,953
543,901 1,139,854
9,116,768
50.8
48.5
49.7
37.5
87,161
1,043,882
3.8
3.7
3.8
4.3
1,173,627 1,121,242 2,294,869
24,326,974
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Other
Total
45,164
Source: Texas State Data Center
41,997
Change in Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population
in Texas by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2008
Race/
Ethnicity
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Age
<3
Age
3 to 5
Ages
0 to 5
Total
Population
Anglo
11,970
7,175
19,145
268,148
3.1
1.8
2.4
2.4
Black
9,346
4,685
14,031
401,807
7.7
3.8
5.7
16.6
160,550
127,408
287,958
2,447,102
36.9
30.6
33.8
36.7
Other
14,323
11,115
25,438
358,097
46.4
36.0
41.2
52.2
Total
196,189
150,383
346,572
3,475,154
20.1
15.5
17.8
16.7
Hispanic
Source: Texas State Data Center
Age
<3
Ages
3 to 5
Ages
0 to 5
Total
Population
Early Childhood Age Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and
Selected Counties in Texas in 2000 and Estimated for 2008
Race/
Ethnicity
Texas
Bexar
Dallas
Harris
Hidalgo
Tarrant
Travis
Webb
Census 2000
Anglo
788,930
33,890
65,514
103,723
2,849
70,019
29,538
934
Black
245,748
9,722
47,177
64,599
142
20,882
7,996
29
Hispanic
851,896
86,302
94,964
151,933
66,288
40,685
28,687
23,653
61,723
2,341
9,507
16,460
401
6,308
3,342
107
1,948,297
132,255
217,162
336,715
69,680
137,894
69,563
24,723
Other
Total Population
Estimated for 2008
Anglo
808,075
35,717
55,191
91,668
4,171
70,959
31,820
502
Black
259,779
10,537
47,086
70,506
79
25,121
8,507
6
1,139,854
104,919
129,132
219,130
87,587
64,057
43,148
33,577
87,161
3,773
12,848
23,303
811
9,345
5,281
178
2,294,869
154,946
244,257
404,607
92,648
169,482
88,756
34,263
Hispanic
Other
Total Population
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent of an Area’s Early Childhood Age Population by Race/Ethnicity
for Texas and Selected Counties in Texas in 2000 and Estimated for 2008
Race/
Ethnicity
Texas
Bexar
Dallas
Harris
Hidalgo
Tarrant
Travis
Webb
Census 2000
% Anglo
40.5
25.6
30.2
30.8
4.1
50.8
42.5
3.8
% Black
12.6
7.4
21.7
19.2
0.2
15.1
11.5
0.1
% Hispanic
43.7
65.3
43.7
45.1
95.1
29.5
41.2
95.7
3.2
1.8
4.4
4.9
0.6
4.6
4.8
0.4
% Other
Estimated for 2008
% Anglo
35.2
23.1
22.6
22.7
4.5
41.9
35.9
1.5
% Black
11.3
6.8
19.3
17.4
0.1
14.8
9.6
-
% Hispanic
49.7
67.7
52.9
54.2
94.5
37.8
48.6
98.0
3.8
2.4
5.3
5.8
0.9
5.5
6.0
0.5
% Other
Source: Texas State Data Center
Early Childhood
Early Childhood Age Population and
Total Population in Texas by Age Group and
Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040
Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007
Age
Group
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
389,504
399,426
788,930
11,074,716
Census 2000
121,690
435,403
124,058
416,493
245,748
851,896
2,421,653
6,669,666
30,841
30,882
61,723
685,785
977,438
970,859
1,948,297
20,851,820
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
398,192
407,608
805,800
11,441,595
Projected 2010
132,968
626,611
131,264
585,618
264,232
1,212,229
2,925,751
9,847,852
46,611
44,387
90,998
1,158,749
1,204,382
1,168,877
2,373,259
25,373,947
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
360,408
374,324
734,732
11,612,122
Projected 2020
132,883
729,063
138,084
702,447
270,967
1,431,510
3,447,896
13,940,031
55,600
52,443
108,043
1,858,400
1,277,954
1,267,298
2,545,252
30,858,449
325,434
335,061
660,495
11,525,269
Projected 2030
130,726
890,312
132,929
837,044
263,655
1,727,356
3,922,900
18,973,424
70,921
66,101
137,022
2,863,893
1,417,393
1,371,135
2,788,528
37,285,486
310,388
316,100
626,488
11,196,427
Projected 2040
135,871
1,059,827
137,190
1,013,901
273,061
2,073,728
4,341,627
25,090,745
94,598
87,100
181,698
4,243,239
1,600,684
1,554,291
3,154,975
44,872,038
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent of Early Childhood Age Population and
Total Population in Texas by Age Group and
Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040
Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007
Age
Group
Anglo
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
39.8
41.1
40.5
53.1
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
33.1
34.9
34.0
45.1
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
28.2
29.5
28.9
37.6
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
23.0
24.4
23.7
30.9
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
19.4
20.3
19.9
25.0
Source: Texas State Data Center
Black
Hispanic
Census 2000
12.4
44.5
12.8
42.9
12.6
43.7
11.6
32.0
Projected 2010
11.0
52.0
11.2
50.1
11.1
51.1
11.5
38.8
Projected 2020
10.4
57.0
10.9
55.4
10.6
56.2
11.2
45.2
Projected 2030
9.2
62.8
9.7
61.0
9.5
61.9
10.5
50.9
Projected 2040
8.5
66.2
8.8
65.2
8.7
65.7
9.7
55.9
Other
Total
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
4.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
4.4
4.1
4.2
6.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5.0
4.8
4.9
7.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5.9
5.6
5.8
9.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Numerical Change in Early Childhood Age Population
and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and
Race/Ethnicity for Selected Time Periods
Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007
Age
Group
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
8,688
8,182
16,870
366,879
Change 2000-2010
11,278
191,208
7,206
169,125
18,484
360,333
504,098
3,178,186
15,770
13,505
29,275
472,964
226,944
198,018
424,962
4,522,127
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
-37,784
-33,284
-71,068
170,527
Change 2010-2020
-85
102,452
6,820
116,829
6,735
219,281
522,145
4,092,179
8,989
8,056
17,045
699,651
73,572
98,421
171,993
5,484,502
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
-34,974
-39,263
-74,237
-86,853
Change 2020-2030
-2,157
161,249
-5,155
134,597
-7,312
295,846
475,004
5,033,393
15,321
13,658
28,979
1,005,493
139,439
103,837
243,276
6,427,037
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
-15,046
-18,961
-34,007
-328,842
Change 2030-2040
5,145
169,515
4,261
176,857
9,406
346,372
418,727
6,117,321
23,677
20,999
44,676
1,379,346
183,291
183,156
366,447
7,586,552
-79,116
-83,326
-162,442
121,711
Change 2000-2040
14,181
624,424
13,132
597,408
27,313
1,221,832
1,919,974
18,421,079
63,757
56,218
119,975
3,557,454
623,246
583,432
1,206,678
24,020,218
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent Change in Early Childhood Age Population
and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and
Race/Ethnicity for Selected Time Periods
Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007
Age
Group
Anglo
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
2.2
2.0
2.1
3.3
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
-9.5
-8.2
-8.8
1.5
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
-9.7
-10.5
-10.1
-0.7
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
-4.6
-5.7
-5.1
-2.9
<3
3-5
0-5
All Ages
-20.3
-20.9
-20.6
1.1
Source: Texas State Data Center
Black
Hispanic
Change 2000-2010
9.3
43.9
5.8
40.6
7.5
42.3
20.8
47.7
Change 2010-2020
-0.1
16.4
5.2
19.9
2.5
18.1
17.8
41.6
Change 2020-2030
-1.6
22.1
-3.7
19.2
-2.7
20.7
13.8
36.1
Change 2030-2040
3.9
19.0
3.2
21.1
3.6
20.1
10.7
32.2
Change 2000-2040
11.7
143.4
10.6
143.4
11.1
143.4
79.3
276.2
Other
Total
51.1
43.7
47.4
69.0
23.2
20.4
21.8
21.7
19.3
18.1
18.7
60.4
6.1
8.4
7.2
21.6
27.6
26.0
26.8
54.1
10.9
8.2
9.6
20.8
33.4
31.8
32.6
48.2
12.9
13.4
13.1
20.3
206.7
182.0
194.4
518.7
63.8
60.1
61.9
115.2
Households and Households in Owner Occupied Housing in
Texas and the United States by Presence of Own Children
in 2000 by Race/Ethnicity of Householder
Households
Proportion of Households
Owner Occupied
All
Race/Ethnic Category Households
White, Not Hispanic
Black, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
White, Not Hispanic
Black, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
4,487,574
844,696
273,943
1,787,141
7,393,354
79,086,566
12,136,354
5,077,417
9,179,764
105,480,101
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4
All
Owner Occupied
With Own
All
Children < 18 Households
All
With Own
Children < 18
Texas
1,014,994
136,543
25,560
533,594
1,710,691
60.7
11.4
3.7
24.2
100.0
67.3
8.3
3.1
21.3
100.0
59.3
8.0
1.5
31.2
100.0
United States
57,296,118
17,865,789
5,625,147
1,938,860
2,704,635
1,190,373
4,190,613
2,194,288
75.0
11.5
4.8
8.7
82.1
8.1
3.9
6.0
77.0
8.4
5.1
9.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
3,175,771
391,863
146,731
1,002,929
4,717,294
69,816,513
23,189,310
Households by Race/Ethnicity of the Householder and Owner Occupancy
Status and Presence of Own Children in Texas and the United States in 2000
– Percent of Total Race/Ethnic Group Households
Owner Occupied
Race/Ethnic Category
White, Not Hispanic
Black, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
White, Not Hispanic
Black, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Total
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4
Households with
All Households
Children
Texas
4,487,574
844,696
273,943
1,787,141
7,393,354
United States
79,086,566
12,136,354
5,077,417
9,179,764
105,480,101
All
With Own
Children < 18
30.1
38.4
43.0
53.2
37.1
70.8
46.4
53.6
56.1
63.8
22.6
16.2
9.3
29.9
23.1
29.5
37.2
42.5
52.5
33.0
72.4
46.3
53.3
45.7
66.2
22.6
16.0
23.4
23.9
22.0
Households and Owner Occupied Households by Race/Ethnicity of the
Householder for Texas, the United States, and Selected Texas Counties in 2000
County
Bexar
Brazoria
Cameron
Collin
Dallas
Denton
Ector
Ellis
Ft. Bend
Galveston
Guadalupe
Hale
Harris
Hays
Hidalgo
Johnson
Lubbock
McLennan
Montgomery
Nueces
Smith
Tarrant
Taylor
Travis
Wichita
Williamson
Texas
United States
Total
488,942
81,954
97,267
181,970
807,621
158,903
43,846
37,020
110,915
94,782
30,900
11,975
1,205,516
33,410
156,824
43,636
92,516
78,859
103,296
110,365
65,692
533,864
47,274
320,766
48,441
86,766
7,393,354
105,480,101
All Households
(Percent of All Households)
White
Black Hispanic Other
43.4
7.2
46.4
3.0
72.9
6.7
17.2
3.2
22.8
0.3
75.9
1.0
80.5
4.7
7.0
7.9
54.3
20.3
20.1
5.3
80.3
5.7
8.6
5.3
60.3
4.5
33.3
1.9
77.6
8.1
12.8
1.5
52.7
19.4
16.5
11.4
68.2
14.9
13.6
3.4
67.1
5.0
25.9
2.0
54.6
4.7
39.1
1.6
50.7
18.7
24.2
6.3
72.2
2.4
23.0
2.4
17.3
0.3
81.3
1.1
87.6
1.8
8.6
2.0
69.6
6.8
21.3
2.3
70.3
14.8
13.0
1.9
86.1
3.2
8.4
2.4
45.7
4.2
47.9
2.2
73.4
18.3
6.8
1.6
69.0
12.5
13.8
4.7
78.0
6.1
13.4
2.5
65.3
8.4
20.3
6.0
79.3
8.3
8.7
3.7
78.9
4.8
12.9
3.4
60.7
11.2
24.2
3.9
75.0
11.2
8.7
5.1
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4
Owner Occupied
(Percent of Owner Occupied Households)
Total
White
Black Hispanic Other
299,171
47.7
5.7
44.2
2.5
60,682
75.9
5.9
15.0
3.2
65,854
26.5
0.3
72.4
0.8
124,935
84.5
3.2
5.0
7.3
424,788
65.2
15.6
14.8
4.3
102,469
85.2
3.7
6.4
4.7
30,098
62.7
3.4
32.4
1.5
28,226
82.1
6.2
10.3
1.3
89,628
55.0
18.6
14.3
12.1
62,790
75.6
10.3
11.3
2.8
23,799
70.9
4.3
22.8
2.0
7,765
61.8
3.3
33.6
1.3
667,129
60.9
14.1
19.2
5.8
21,680
74.6
1.8
21.9
1.7
114,570
19.4
0.2
79.5
0.9
34,420
90.2
1.3
6.9
1.6
54,763
75.0
5.0
18.5
1.5
47,463
77.5
10.1
11.3
1.1
80,750
88.3
2.6
7.0
2.1
67,687
49.9
3.1
45.1
2.0
45,777
78.6
14.5
5.6
1.3
324,754
76.1
9.2
10.8
3.9
29,091
82.2
3.9
11.8
2.0
165,123
72.8
6.9
16.1
4.2
30,192
84.0
5.5
7.5
3.0
64,391
82.2
3.9
10.7
3.2
4,717,294
67.3
8.2
21.3
3.2
69,816,513
82.1
7.9
6.0
4.1
Households with Own Children < 18 and Owner Occupied Households
with Own Children < 18 by Race/Ethnicity of the Householder for Texas,
the United States, and Selected Texas Counties in 2000
County
Bexar
Brazoria
Cameron
Collin
Dallas
Denton
Ector
Ellis
Ft. Bend
Galveston
Guadalupe
Hale
Harris
Hays
Hidalgo
Johnson
Lubbock
McLennan
Montgomery
Nueces
Smith
Tarrant
Taylor
Travis
Wichita
Williamson
Texas
United States
Total Households With Own Children < 18
(Percent of Households with Children)
Total
White Black Hispanic Other
180,106
33.2
7.3
56.6
2.9
33,773
63.7
7.3
25.3
3.7
44,917
9.6
0.4
89.2
0.8
74,378
75.7
5.0
9.3
9.9
285,855
38.1
22.8
33.2
5.9
62,464
75.9
6.4
11.7
5.9
17,222
44.4
3.9
49.8
1.9
15,720
72.2
7.6
18.6
1.6
55,701
45.8
20.5
19.5
14.1
32,242
61.8
15.1
19.4
3.7
11,806
57.4
5.6
34.9
2.1
4,793
36.7
3.8
56.8
2.7
196,646
21.5
27.3
45.0
6.2
11,484
64.7
2.7
30.5
2.1
78,530
6.2
0.2
92.7
0.8
17,724
82.9
1.5
13.3
2.3
29,460
56.5
8.9
32.7
1.9
26,048
60.6
16.6
21.0
1.8
42,084
81.2
3.6
12.5
2.7
40,012
35.3
4.2
58.0
2.5
22,046
64.7
20.2
13.3
1.8
198,257
59.4
13.7
21.2
5.6
16,505
68.5
7.9
20.3
3.3
94,666
52.3
10.3
31.5
5.9
16,337
73.3
9.2
13.3
4.1
38,163
73.2
5.5
17.2
4.0
2,742,486
49.2
11.8
34.7
4.3
34,819,260
67.0
13.0
13.8
6.2
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4
Owner Occupied With Own Children < 18
(Percent of Owner Occupied Households with Children)
Total
White
Black Hispanic Other
108,110
39.7
4.9
52.6
2.8
24,730
67.0
6.2
22.9
3.9
27,361
11.3
0.2
87.8
0.7
59,238
79.9
3.8
6.7
9.6
152,589
51.4
16.2
26.5
5.8
46,613
80.8
4.4
9.1
5.7
11,961
46.0
2.5
49.7
1.8
11,568
78.1
4.9
15.9
1.1
46,127
48.8
19.1
16.8
15.3
21,101
72.3
8.4
16.1
3.2
8,755
62.5
4.3
30.7
2.5
2,801
41.4
2.0
53.5
3.1
262,254
51.4
11.8
29.5
7.2
8,778
69.7
1.9
26.8
1.6
55,272
6.5
0.2
92.6
0.8
13,545
85.5
1.0
11.5
1.9
18,073
66.4
4.6
27.3
1.8
15,434
71.2
8.8
19.0
1.1
33,556
83.9
2.5
10.9
2.6
22,954
42.0
2.3
53.4
2.3
14,877
71.5
14.2
12.7
1.6
126,359
68.8
8.8
17.2
5.2
9,595
74.5
3.7
18.6
3.2
59,432
64.4
6.6
23.4
5.6
9,527
79.8
4.6
12.2
3.4
29,666
77.3
4.5
14.2
4.0
1,756,930
57.8
7.6
30.4
4.2
23,189,310
77.0
8.1
9.5
5.4
Percent of All Households by Owner Occupied Status and Presence of
Own Children < 18 by Race/Ethnicity of the Householder for Texas,
the United States, and Selected Texas Counties in 2000
Total
County
Households
Bexar
488,942
Brazoria
81,954
Cameron
97,267
Collin
181,970
Dallas
807,621
Denton
158,903
Ector
43,846
Ellis
37,020
Ft. Bend
110,915
Galveston
94,782
Guadalupe
30,900
Hale
11,975
Harris
1,205,516
Hays
33,410
Hidalgo
156,824
Johnson
43,636
Lubbock
92,516
McLennan
78,859
Montgomery
103,296
Nueces
110,365
Smith
65,692
Tarrant
533,864
Taylor
47,274
Travis
320,766
Wichita
48,441
Williamson
86,766
Texas
7,393,354
United States 105,480,101
Total
61.2
74.0
67.7
68.7
52.6
64.5
68.6
76.2
80.8
66.2
77.0
64.8
55.3
64.9
73.1
78.9
59.2
60.2
78.2
61.3
69.7
60.8
61.5
51.5
62.3
74.2
63.8
66.2
Owner Occupied
(Percent of Total Households)
White
Black Hispanic
29.2
3.5
27.0
56.2
4.4
11.1
17.9
0.2
49.0
58.0
2.2
3.4
34.3
8.2
7.8
54.9
2.4
4.1
43.1
2.3
22.2
62.6
4.7
7.9
44.5
15.0
11.6
50.1
6.8
7.5
54.6
3.3
17.6
40.1
2.1
21.8
33.7
7.8
10.6
48.4
1.2
14.2
14.2
0.1
58.1
71.1
1.0
5.5
44.4
2.9
11.0
46.7
6.1
6.8
69.0
2.0
5.5
30.6
1.9
27.7
54.8
10.1
3.9
46.3
5.6
6.6
50.6
2.4
7.3
37.5
3.5
8.3
52.3
3.4
4.7
61.0
2.9
7.9
43.0
5.2
13.6
54.3
5.2
4.0
Other
1.5
2.4
0.6
5.0
2.3
3.1
1.1
1.0
9.7
1.9
1.6
0.9
3.2
1.1
0.7
1.3
0.9
0.7
1.7
1.2
0.9
2.3
1.3
2.2
1.9
2.4
2.1
2.7
Owner Occupied With Own Children < 18
(Percent of Total Households)
Total
White
Black Hispanic Other
22.1
8.8
1.1
11.6
0.6
30.2
20.2
1.9
6.9
1.2
28.1
3.2
0.1
24.7
0.2
32.6
26.0
1.2
2.2
3.1
18.9
9.7
3.1
5.0
1.1
29.3
23.7
1.3
2.7
1.7
27.3
12.6
0.7
13.5
0.5
31.2
24.4
1.5
5.0
0.4
41.6
20.3
7.9
7.0
6.3
22.3
16.1
1.9
3.6
0.7
28.3
17.7
1.2
8.7
0.7
23.4
9.7
0.5
12.5
0.7
21.8
11.2
2.6
6.4
1.6
26.3
18.3
0.5
7.0
0.4
35.2
2.3
0.1
32.6
0.3
31.0
26.6
0.3
3.6
0.6
19.5
13.0
0.9
5.3
0.3
19.6
13.9
1.7
3.7
0.2
32.5
27.3
0.8
3.6
0.9
20.8
8.7
0.5
11.1
0.5
22.6
16.2
3.2
2.9
0.4
23.7
16.3
2.1
4.1
1.2
20.3
15.1
0.7
3.8
0.6
18.5
11.9
1.2
4.3
1.0
19.7
15.7
0.9
2.4
0.7
34.2
26.4
1.5
4.9
1.4
23.8
13.7
1.8
7.2
1.0
22.0
16.9
1.8
2.1
1.2
Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in
2000 Dollars)
$60,000
$54,441
$52,639
$50,903
$49,326
$50,000
$47,883
$40,000
$30,000
2000
2010
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2020
2030
2040
Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by
Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent in Poverty
35.0
30.0
26.7
30.0
25.0
18.9
20.0
15.0
18.9
17.0
15.4
16.6
15.0
14.4
11.8
11.4
7.5
10.0
5.0
0.0
Family
Households
Married
Couple
Male
Householder
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Female
Householder
2040
Nonfamily
Households
Total
Households
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent
35
30.1
29
28.7
28.7
30
23.9
25
18.8
18.2
20
12.9
15
10
5.3
4.4
5
0
No High
School Diploma
High School
Graduate
Some
College
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Prof.
Degree
Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by
Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*
Average Income
$120,000
$102,410 $104,294
$100,000
$80,950
$80,327
$80,000
$52,552
$60,000
$42,271
$40,000
$30,412
$54,467
$44,068
$32,473
$20,000
$0
Less Than
High School
High School
Graduate
Some College or
Associate Degree
Texas
United States
*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational
Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040*
Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates
Anglo
< High School
12.7
2.2
25.7
High School
16.6
31.6
33.4
30.0
Some Coll/Assoc
Bachelor's +
47.8
Black
< High School
24.0
4.3
29.9
High School
25.6
30.6
Some Coll/Assoc.
40.5
15.5
Bachelor's +
29.6
Hispanic
50.7
< High School
32.1
22.0
25.8
18.4
24.1
High School
Some Coll/Assoc
8.9
Bachelor's +
18.0
Other
21.0
< High School
High School
13.4
16.1
7.6
20.6
Some Coll/Assoc
11.0
42.3
Bachelor's +
68.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Percent
2000
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
60.0
70.0
80.0
Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population
25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Billions
$1,200
$938
$1,000
$765
$800
$752
$629
$621
$528
$600
$400
$251
$210
$200
$0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
Aggregate Income
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
Consumer Expenditures
*Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
The mark of a truly
educated man is to be
moved deeply by
statistics.
George Bernard Shaw
Steve Murdock
Phone: 210-867-4385
E-mail: [email protected]