Transcript Энергетическая стратегия России (ЭС

Energy Strategy of Russia
for the Year 2030:
Approaches, Priorities and Reference
Points
Alexey Gromov
PhD in Economic Geography
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
«Energetika XXI: economy, policy, ecology»
«Energy security provision within world economic crisis»
October, 15-16, 2009
Saint Petersburg
Energy Strategy: resistant model of
development
Results of monitoring ES-2020
2008 г.
Indexes
Ratio, %
data report 2008/ ES2020 forecast
ES2020
Data
report
148,4
165,2
111,3
USD per barrel
24,0
94,4
393,3
World gas price,
USD per bln cubic metres
120,0
353,7
294,8
Production of primary energy
resources, mln tce
1747,0
1803,0
103,2
Consumption of primary
energy resources, mln tce
1043,0
1002,0
96,0
Electricity consumption,
bln KWth
980,0
1019,7
104,0
805,0
873,0
108,4
GDP Growth, % 2000
World oil price,
Export of primary energy
resources, mln tce
2
Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of
Documents of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the
development of Russian
economy for the years
2009-2030
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of
development of the
gas industry for the
year 2030
Eastern
Gas
Program
General scheme of
allocation of power
generating facilities
for the year 2020
General scheme of
development of the oil
industry for the year
2030
Conception of the state
program for exploration and
exploitation of the
continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Investment programs of
Program of longterm development
of the fuel and
energy complex of
the Russian Far
East
State program of
energy saving
Strategy of
development of the
power generation
in the Russian Far
East
energy companies
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Aim and Goals of the ES-2030
Aim
Innovative and efficient energy development
Stable institutional environment in the energy sector
Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure
Goals
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy
and energy sector
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing
of energy resources
Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the
global energy system
Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite consequences of the global economic
crisis
4
Forecasted Change of the Fuel and Energy
Complex’s Role in the Russian economy
2030
2005
30%
19%
Energy sector in GDP
Energy sector’s
export in GDP
Energy resources in
export
64%
27%
Investment in
energy sector in
total investment
18%
5%
34%
11%
5
Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of GDP
and Domestic Demand for Primary Energy Resources
6
Basic Forecasted Characteristics of the ES-2030
(Electricity Production and Consumption)
Electricity production
Electricity consumption
2030
2030
2028
2028
1590
1640
2026
2026
1415
1460
1520
2024
2022
years
years
2024
1280
2020
1350
2018
2022
1245
2020
2018
2016
2016
1090
2014
1315
1065
2014
1094
2012
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650
1073
2012
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650
bln. kilowatt-hour
basic variant
innovative variant
bln. kilowatt-hour
basic variant
innovative variant
7
Key priorities
in the Russian energy sector
8
Energy security
Strategic indicators
First stage
Second stage
Third stage
Growth of energy consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005
no less than 10%
no less than 20%
no less than 40%
Growth of electricity consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005
no less than 13%
no less than 43%
no less than 85%
Growth of petrol consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005
no less than 23%
no less than 41%
no less than 70%
Decrease of the current level of equipment’s run-out (in 2005 – 60%):
by 10%
by 10%
by 5%
Elimination of deficit and maintenance of the sufficient reserve of the power and heat generating capacities
Maintenance of power generating reserves at the level of 17% of the total installed capacity of the United
Energy Systems (UES) of Russia. Maintenance of normative heat generating reserves of heat stations and
boiler-houses.
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Energy efficiency of the economy
Strategic indicators
First stage
Second stage
Third stage
Specific energy intensity of GDP, % of the 2005 level
no more than 80%
no more than 62%
no more than 46%
Formation of additional energy potential for economic development:
100 mln. t c.e./y
200 mln. t c.e./y
300 mln. t c.e./y
Development of high-technological energy services with volume of:
200 bln. RUR/y
300 bln. RUR/y
400 bln. RUR/y
Mean decrease in specific losses and auxiliaries in FEC’s enterprises,
% by the level of previous year
no less than 1%
no less than 1%
no less than 0,5%
Decrease in specific fuel rate for heat generation of heat stations and boiler houses,
% by the level of 2005
no less than 2%
no less than 6%
no less than 10%
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Economic efficiency of the energy sector
Strategic aim:
Efficient relationship between government and energy business
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Creation of favorable economic environment
Support of strategic initiatives
Optimization of tax burden
Development of the insurance system of long-term
investments’ risks
Rationalization of amortization policy
Formation of united leasing companies
Perfection of state price (tariff) regulations in the sphere
of natural monopolies
Support of small and medium-scale business in FEC
Completion of liberalization processes in power
generation
System of prospective regulations, standards and norms
Perfection of license policy, elimination of inadequate
administrative barriers
Stimulation of modernization and innovative development
of FEC
Organization and stimulation of raising the level of stuff’s
skills in FEC
Strategic indicators of economic (budget) efficiency of FEC
First stage
Second stage
Third stage
Formation of stable institutional and legal environment in FEC
Financial stability of FEC and national economy
11
Ecological security of the energy sector
Strategic indicators
First stage
Second stage
Third stage
Decrease in emission of pollutants into atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, % by the level of 2005:
no less than 15%
no less than 30%
no less than 50%
Volume of greenhouse gases emission, % of 1990 level:
no more than 83%
no more than 92%
no more than 105%
Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 – 75%):
95%
% by the level of 1990
110
95%
100
100
95%
105
Forecasted dynamics of СО2-emissions
89
90
80
80
70
73
92
82
76
69
70
60
50
1990
1995
2000
2005
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
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Stages of ES-2030
13
Basic Hypotheses of the Social and Economic
Development of Russia for the Year 2030
Concept
Realization of the competitive advantages of the Russian economy in
traditional and new science-intensive industries
Predicted development of the Russian economy
Hypothesis I
By the end of the first stage
of ES-2030 (post-crisis period)
the economy will be
characterized by the rates of
social and economic
development, declared in the
Concept of long-term
development
Stages of the ES-2030
realization
Hypothesis II
By the end of the second
First stage
(till 2013-2015)
stage of the ES-2030 the
level of social and economic
development, declared in the
Concept of long-term
development, will be achieved
 Specification of the goals and priorities of the development are
carried out in the frames of annually conducted Monitoring of the ES2030
Second stage
(till 2020-2022)
Third stage
(till 2030)
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Characteristics of the Stages of ES-2030
First stage (till 2013-2015)
Main goals:
elimination of the crisis’ consequences and invigoration of the national economy
modernization of the energy sector
External conditions:
possible post-crisis renaissance of the global economy
volatility of the global financial, stock and energy markets
Second stage (till 2020-2022)
Main goals:
increase in energy efficiency of the national economy and energy sector
realization of energy projects in the Eastern Siberia, Far East, Yamal and Arctic offshore
innovative renovation of the energy sector
External conditions:
stabilization of the global energy markets
decrease in dependence of budget revenues and national economy from the energy sector
Third stage (till 2030)
Main goals:
high-performance use of traditional energy resources
gradual shift to the energy of the future
External conditions:
substantial decrease of the energy sector’s role in the national economy
15
Key initiatives
in the Russian energy sector
16
Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector
Energy infrastructure: deevelopment and diversification
Development of oil and gas complexes
in Eastern regions of Russia
Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern
regions of Russia and Arctic off-shore
Non-fuel energy
Energy saving
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Energy infrastructure: development and
diversification
OIL
NATURAL GAS
 Baltic Pipeline System - 2 – 50 mln. т/y
 Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean – 80 mln. т/y
 North Stream – 55 bln. cub. m/y
 South Stream – 30 bln. cub. m/y
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Development of oil and gas complexes
in Eastern regions of Russia
Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources in Eastern regions of Russia will help to
satisfy the domestic demand for energy resources and diversify directions of export
19
Exploitation of Oil and Gas Resources
of New Regions
(including Arctic offshore)
Shift in natural gas extraction in Russia
600,0
1000
885-940
700
641
4
600
46
3
500
400
85-87
45-65
500,0
67-68
400,0
185220
470,1
24,5
49,1
52,2
30-32
300,0
4,4
5,3
0,2
new regions
3
530-535
mln. t
bln. cub. m
800
new regions
900
300
Shift in oil extraction in Russia
32-33
69-75
21-22
42-43
25-29
34-36
131-137
200,0
585
334,3
200
317323
100
0
2005
2030
Nadyum-Pur-Taz Region
European part of Russia
Bolshekhetskaya valley
Yamal
Ob-Taz estuary
Eastern Siberia
Far East
Others
301-303
100,0
0,0
2005
2030
Far East
Eastern Siberia
Northern Cacauses and Caspian region
North and North-West of Russia
Urals region
Volga region
Western Siberia
20
Non-fuel energy
35
Priority development:
Forecasted development of renewable power
generation
87
100
90
30
POWER
GENERATION
Renewable
mln. kilowatt
Hydro
25
70
61
20
60
50
15
40
25
10
30
20
18
5
Putting into operation installed capacity
of 23-33 GWt will increase the share of
renewable energy in power generation
from 0,5 to 4,5%
bln. kilowatt-hour
80
Nuclear
9
0,5
10
5
0
0
2005
1st stage
2nd stage
3rd stage
Installed capacity, mln. Kilowatt
Power generation on the basis of renewable energy
resources, bln. kilowatt-hour
21
Energy Saving
Potential of energy saving in
Russia is estimated at level of
45% of the current
consumption of energy
resources
Consumption of energy
resources can be reduced by:
20% in heat supply
Expected results of
energy saving and
increase in energy
efficiency in Russia
1
Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340 bln.
kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal
and 45 mln t of oil and oil products
2
Improvement in competitiveness of national
economy under conditions of growing tariffs for
energy resources
3
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and
natural gas: 84-112 bln. USD
4
Decrease in governmental expanses:
3-5 bln. USD
5
Reduction in CO2 –emissions: 790 mln t/y
Improvement in ecological situation in the country
30% in power generation
40% in industry and
transportation
50% in living apartments
22
State Energy Policy in Russia
Rational market environment
Advanced standards and regulations
Strategic initiatives
Management of state property
Development Formation of
Subsoil
of home
rational
resources
energy
energy
management
markets
balance
Social policy
in the energy
sector
Regional
energy
policy
External
energy
policy
Scientific, technical and
innovative policy
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Expected results of ES-2030
1) Guaranteed energy security of Russia and its regions
2) Competent participation of Russia in ensuring global energy security, partly by means of
diversification of export
3) Gradual decrease in dependency of national economy from oil and gas sector and respective
decline of FEC’s share in the structure of GDP from 30 to 18%
4) Decrease in specific energy intensity of GDP by 2,1-2,3 times
5) Optimization of fuel and energy balance, decline in the share of natural gas in energy
consumption from 52 to 46-47% and increase in the share of non-fuel energetics from
11 to 13-14%
6) Exploration and exploitation of new oil and gas producing regions
7) Development of the social partnership between energy companies and society
8) Improvement in financial stability, budget efficiency and investment prosperity of energy
companies
9) Innovative renovation of production assets and energy infrastructure, development of
new energy technologies
10) Ecological security and efficiency of FEC, limitation of greenhouse gases emissions (up to
100-105% by the level of 1990) owing to realization of the potential for energy saving
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Thank you for your attention!
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