Transcript Энергетическая стратегия России (ЭС

Strategic Development of Power Generation
in the Context of
“Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030”
Alexey Gromov
PhD
Deputy Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
11th Prague International Energy Conference
Prague, 24-26 September 2009
Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of
Documents of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the
development of Russian
economy for the years
2009-2030
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of
development of the
gas industry for the
year 2030
Eastern
Gas
Program
General scheme of
allocation of power
generating facilities
for the year 2020
General scheme of
development of the oil
industry for the year
2030
Conception of the state
program for exploration and
exploitation of the
continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Investment programs of
Program of longterm development
of the fuel and
energy complex of
the Russian Far
East
energy companies
State program of
energy saving
Strategy of
development of the
power generation
in the Russian Far
East
Aim and Goals of the ES-2030
Aim
Innovative and efficient energy development
Stable institutional environment in the energy sector
Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure
Goals
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy
and energy sector
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing
of energy resources
Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the
global energy system
Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite consequences of the global economic
crisis
Energy Saving as Priority Direction of State
Energy Policy
Potential of energy saving in
Russia is estimated at level of
45% of the current
consumption of energy
resources
Consumption of energy
resources can be reduced by:
20% in heat supply
Expected results of
energy saving and
increase in energy
efficiency in Russia
1
Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340 bln.
kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal
and 45 mln t of oil and oil products
2
Improvement in competitiveness of national
economy under conditions of growing tariffs for
energy resources
3
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and
natural gas: 84-112 bln. USD
4
Decrease in governmental expanses:
3-5 bln. USD
5
Reduction in CO2 –emissions: 790 mln t/y
Improvement in ecological situation in the country
30% in power generation
40% in industry and
transportation
50% in living apartments
Basic Forecasted Characteristics of the ES-2030
(Electricity Production and Consumption)
Electricity consumption
Electricity production
2030
2030
2028
2028
1590
1640
2026
2026
1415
1520
2024
2024
2022
2022
years
years
1460
1280
2020
1350
2018
2018
2016
2016
1315
1065
1090
2014
1245
2020
2014
1094
2012
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650
1073
2012
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650
bln. kilowatt-hour
basic variant
innovative variant
bln. kilowatt-hour
basic variant
innovative variant
Power Generation
Results of ES-2020
Completion of the structural reform of the Russian
power generation
Problems
Deficit of generative and circuit capacities in some
regions
Lack of peak and semi-peak capacities
Creation of the wholesale competitive market of
electric power and capacity
Tendencies
Shift of electric power consumption into Eastern
regions of Russia and cities of the Central part of the
country
High runout of basic production assets
Low energy and economic efficiency of power
generation
High dependency on natural gas
Absence of retail market of electric power and capacity
Lack of investment resources
Increase in seasonal and daily peak loads in the UES of
Russia
Cross-funding between different groups of consumers
and between electric power and heat in domestic market
Development of Power Generation
Strategic aims
Energy security of the country
Complete satisfaction of country’s needs in energy (capacity) at reasonable prices
Safe and secure work of power supply system under normal conditions and in case of emergency
Innovative renovation
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Balanced development of generative and circuit
capacities
Further development and enlargement of the UES
of Russia
Modernization of the basic production assets
Development of competitive markets of
energy and capacity
electric
Accelerated development of nuclear, coal power
generation and renewable energy; diversification of
the fuel and energy balance of the country
Development
of
environmental
friendly
technologies of coal burning, steam-to-gas plants
with high coefficient of efficiency, power circuits of
new generation, etc.
Containment of prices by means of reduction of
costs in construction of generative and circuit
capacities, encouragement of competition and
creation of state system supervising power
generation
Development of “small power generation”
regions with decentralized power supply
in
Reliability and controllability of power supply
systems
Reduction of negative environmental impact of power generation
Power Generation and Consumption
Power generation
Power consumption and export
1740-2164
45-60
2000
1800-2210
2000
356437
1350-1555
1059-1245
953,1
1000
149,0
175,0
277,0
194220
181199
299423
35
319422
247282
1041-1218
bln. kWh
bln. kWh
1500
500
1315-1518
1500
224240
18-25
1000
953
18002210
12
620873
432592
500
352,0
385403
441447
478505
2005
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
10591245
13501555
941
0
Termal (heat)
Hydro & Renewable
Condensation
Nuclear
0
2005
1st Stage
Power consumption
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
Net export
Prospective levels of power generation will be determined by growth of domestic demand, which
will substantially exceed the growth rate of demand for primary energy
Power Consumption and Specific Electro-capacity of GDP
100
2164
Specific Electro-capacity of GDP
2100
Power consumption, bln. kWh
90
89
87
1800
1740
80
81
72
1518
1500
Power Consumption
70
71
61
1315
1218
1200
60
59
1020
900
1041
941
2005
Specific Electro Capacity of GDP, % of the 2005
level
100
50
2008
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
By 2030 power consumption will increase 1,9-2,3 fold, compared with the level of 2005, while specific
electro-capacity of GDP will decrease 1,6-1,7 fold.
Installed Capacity of Power Plants
450,0
355-445
400,0
52-62
350,0
275-315
300,0
239-267
mln. kW
37-41
250,0
200,0
150,0
215,2
23,7
28-33
56-59
50-52
123181
45,9
83-117
72-90
100,0
50,0
68-96
67,4
78,3
89-92
98-99
106112
2005
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
0,0
Termal (heat)
Condensate
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
By 2030 total installed capacity of Russian power plans will increase 1.6-2 fold, compared to 2005
level (mostly due to condensate plants)
Investment in Power Generation
800
572-888
bln. USD (at 2007constant prices)
700
55-125
600
100-139
500
340-529
30-92
400
200-290
58-81
300
110-233
200
8-15
122-126
17-18
46-112
100
0
32-33
44-45
122-145
29-30
1st Stage
Power Circuit
217-334
13-28
130-211
43-78
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
Thermal + Condensate
Nuclear
Total 2008-2030
Hydro
Power generation demands 572-888 bln USD investment for the year 2030. Share of the industry
in total investment in Russian FEC equals 24-32%
Long-term State Tariff Policy
Basic Principles
Expansion of market principles of pricing and mechanisms of self-regulation
Improvement in quality of life of the Russian population and competitiveness of
Russian industry
Investment attractiveness of projects in power generation and transmission
Predictability and transparency of long-term state tariff policy and its coordination
with other components of the state energy policy
Till 2030 average selling price for electric power (at 2007 constant prices) won’t
increase more than 2-fold and won’t exceed 9-10 US cent/kW
Stages of Realization
1st Stage






Modernization of gas-fired power plants
Decommissioning of old-fashioned and depreciated equipment
Creation of legal frameworks for attraction of investment in power generation
Realization of state program for construction of nuclear and hydro power plants
Creation of domestic competitive market of electric power and capacity
Development of public assistance in supplying electric power at social norms
2nd Stage




Large-scale renovation of basic production assets
Development of power circuits and proper infrastructure in the Eastern Siberia and Far East
Putting into operation new nuclear power plants
Development of renewable energy
3rd Stage





Active development of non-hydrocarbon power generation (nuclear, renewable, etc.)
Technological improvements in coal-fired power generation
Construction of major hydroelectric power stations in Eastern parts of Russia
Development of “small nuclear power generation” in the Russian North and Far East
Development of modular high-temperature nuclear reactors, able to produce electric power,
heat and hydrogen
Development of Non-fuel Energy
35
Priority development:
Forecasted development of renewable power
generation
87
100
90
30
POWER
GENERATION
Renewable
mln. kilowatt
Hydro
25
70
61
20
50
15
40
25
10
30
20
18
5
Putting into operation installed capacity
of 23-33 GWt will increase the share of
renewable energy in power generation
from 0,5 to 4,5%
60
9
0,5
10
5
0
0
2005
1st stage
2nd stage
3rd stage
Installed capacity, mln. Kilowatt
Power generation on the basis of renewable energy
resources, bln. kilowatt-hour
bln. kilowatt-hour
80
Nuclear
State Policy in the Sphere of Renewable Energy
and Local Power Supply
Sate support of Russian industry and science supplying power generation on the basis of
renewable energy with equipment and technologies
Attraction of investment, creation of special venture funds
Support of small service enterprises, operating in the sphere of renewable energy
Support of utilization of industrial and communal waste for the purpose of power generation
Informational support
Technical and technological control of security of renewable energy
Support of utilization of local power supply in remote regions
Strategic Indicators of Development
Indicators
2008
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
no more than 35
no more than 38
Power generation
Share of non-fuel power supply, %
32,5
no more than 34
Fuel supply of thermoelectric power plants
Share of gas, %
70,3
70-71
65-66
60-62
Share of coal, %
26
25-26
29-30
34-36
Energy security and reliability of power supply
Probability of non-deficit functioning of
energy systems
0,996
0,9990
0,9991
0,9997
Efficiency of power generation
Coefficient of efficiency of coal-fired
power plants, %
34
no less than 35
no less than 38
no less than 41
Coefficient of efficiency of gas-fired
power plants,%
38
no less than 45
no less than 50
no less than 53
Coefficient of efficiency of nuclear
power plants,%
32
no less than 32
no less than 34
no less than 36
333
(99%)
no more than 315
(94%)
no more than 300
(90%)
no more than 270
(81%)
13
no more than 12
no more than 10
no more than 8
Specific fuel consumption for power
generation at heat and power plants,
g c.e./kWt-h (by the level of 2005)
Loss in power circuits, %
Heat Supply
Results of ES-2020
Runout of basic production assets increased
up to 65-70%
Coefficient of utilization of installed heat
capacity of power plants decreased to the level
below 50%
Problems
Lack of reliability of heat supplying systems
High loss rate
High negative impact on environment
Extension of heat distribution network
decreased by 5% (more than 10 000 km)
Loss rate in heat distribution increased from
14% to 20%
Power consumption for transportation of heat
carrier increased substantially (up to 40 kWth/hcal)
Lack of investment and necessity to restrain the
growth of tariffs
Organizational disconnection of objects and
systems of heat supply
Urgent necessity of institutional reform in the
system of heat supply
Heat Supply
Strategic aims
High level of comfort in residential and industrial buildings, increase in quality of service of heat supply, provided at
reasonable prices
Modernization of heat supply systems on the basis of innovative high-efficient technologies and equipment
Decrease of unproductive loss of heat and fuel consumption
Controllability, reliability, security and economy of heat supply
Decrease of negative impact on environment
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Priority development of cogeneration-based heat supply
Development of heat supply on the basis of steamturbine, gas-turbine, gas-piston and diesel plants in the
sphere of middle and small heat load
Optimal combination of centralized and decentralized
heat supply
Creation of legal framework, guaranteeing effective
interaction between producers, distributors and
consumers of heat
Utilization of geothermal energy
Combined operation of different sources of heat for a
common heat transporting network and optimization of
their functioning
Optimization of regimes of thermoelectric plants
Rational combination of system and elemental
reservation, transition to independent scheme of
connection to heat supply and closed system of hot
water supply
Technological Structure of Heat Supply
2500
2000
1977
mln h-cal
349
2130-2150
1975-2030
1899-1975
370-390
360-370
350-360
140-150
136-185
150-160
117-134
1500
192
103
180-190
106-118
1000
701
661-688
659-686
628
601-620
680-690
785-830
2 этап
3 этап
640-654
500
0
2005
Centralized
Power plants
1 этап
sources of heat
Boiler-houses
Others
Decentralized
Boiler-houses
Autonomous
 Main growth will be provided by power plants
 Share of geothermal, solar and biomass sources of heat will be increased
 Share of boiler-houses by 2030 will be decreased
Heat Consumption and Loss
2500
1977
1899-1975
1975-2030
310-320
230-270
15891655
17451760
1 этап
2 этап
2130-2150
180-190
2000
355
mln h-cal
1500
1000
19501960
1622
500
0
2005
Consumption
3 этап
Loss
 Loss of heat will decrease 2-3 fold (equivalent to economy of fuel of no less than 40 mln t c.e.)
Investment in Heat Supply
160
bln. USD (at 2007 constant prices)
140
120
100
150153
80
60
40
20
4142
3839
1st Stage
2nd Stage
7172
0
3rd Stage
Total 2008-2030
Heat supply demands 150-153 bln USD investment for the year 2030. Share of the industry in total
investment in Russian FEC equals 5-6%
Stages of Realization
1st Stage
 Optimization of centralized and decentralized systems of heat supply
 Modernization of basic productive assets and transport network
 Equipping of heat consumers with systems of control and regulation
 Attraction of private investment
 Optimization of tariffs (transition to two-part tariff)
 Increase in energy efficiency of buildings
2nd Stage
 Large-scale modernization of basic productive assets and transport network
 Rapid development of decentralized heat supply and heat supply on the basis of renewable energy
 Creation of market of heat
 Further increase in energy efficiency of heat supply
3rd Stage
 High level of comfort in residential and industrial buildings
 Utilization of non-fuel sources of heat
 Spread of high-tech automatic systems of heat supply
Strategic Indicators of Development
Indicators
2008
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
Energy security and reliability of heat supply
Failure rate, 1/year
0,27
no more than 0,25
no more than 0,20
no more than 0,15
Failure rate because of source of
heat, 1/(source-year)
0,06
no more than 0,05
no more than 0,03
no more than 0,01
2
no less than 10
no less than 40
no less than 90
Renewal of heat network, % of total
extension
Innovative development of heat supply
Share of systems, equipped with
modern tools of exploitation, %
10
no less than 40
no less than 80
100
Efficiency of heat supply
Coefficient of effective use of
heating power at heat and power
plant, % of the 2005 level
5
no less than 15
no less than 40
no less than 50
Mean specific fuel consumption, %
of the 2005 level
99
no more than 98
no more than 94
no more than 90
Increase in energy efficiency of
buildings, % to the 2005 level
5
no less than 10
no less than 30
no less than 50
Heat loss, % of heat production
19
no more than 16
no more than 13
no more than 8-10
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