Transcript Energy Sector

New Challenges in Russian Energy
Sector: Towards Energy Efficiency
and Innovations
Alexey GROMOV
Ph.D, Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Seminar “The Transformation of the Russian Energy Sector”
FOI, Stockholm, 15th April 2011
Institute for Energy Strategy (IES):

Analytical Center for development and
monitoring of Energy strategy of Russia

Forecasting Center for world oil and gas
market prices

Scientific Center for sustainable energy
development for energy corporations

Consulting Center for energy safety and
energy efficiency on the regional, branch and
corporate levels

Information and Statistic Center
aggregating facts about operating Energy
Sector of Russia

Publishing house (magazines, statistical
yearbooks), scientific and technical, public and
business issues
www.energystrategy.ru
2
State Energy Policy in Russia
Rational market environment
Advanced standards and regulations
Strategic initiatives
Management of state property
Development Formation of
Subsoil
of home
rational
resources
energy
energy
management
markets
balance
Social policy
in the energy
sector
Regional
energy
policy
External
energy
policy
Scientific, technical and
innovative policy
13
Energy Strategy is a key document
for Russian Energy Policy
Long-term forecast of the
development of Russian
economy for the years
2009-2030
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of
development of the
gas industry for the
year 2030
Eastern
Gas
Program
General scheme of
allocation of power
generating facilities for
the year 2020
General scheme of
development of the oil
industry for the year
2030
Conception of the state
program for exploration and
exploitation of the
continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Program of longterm development
of the fuel and
energy complex of
the Russian Far
East
State program of
energy saving
Strategy of
development of
the power
generation in the
Russian Far East
Investment programs of energy companies
14
ES-2030: from FORECAST to TARGET MODELING
млн т
250
245,2
227,5
203,7
213,2
165,9
167
101,5
172,6
174,1
105,3
175,2
194,8
183,3
104,4
108,8
100
90,9
199,5
204
182,4
166,8
106,2
95,2
86,6
101,7
93,2
произв одств енная
мощность
разрезов
222,6
188,1
200
150
233,9
117,3
103,5
125
130,2
107,9
108,6
добыча угля на
разрезах
130,8
ES-2030
произв одств енная
мощность шахт
104
добыча угля на
шахтах
50
0
Разрезы
Шахты
600
201
374
660
Target Modeling
402
2030 г.
394
301
2025 г.
305
316
2020 г.
226
148
206
299
258
213
200
100
212
203
171
300
506
429
345
132
400
507
649
369
500
528
242
502
611
Всего
258
млн т
700
255
2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г. 2003 г. 2004 г. 2005 г. 2006 г. 2007 г. 2008 г.
2020 г.
2025 г.
2030 г.
0
2010 г.
2015 г.
Минимальный вариант
2010 г.
2015 г.
Максимальный вариант
15
ES-2030: a Logic of its Realization
1ST STAGE
Share of Energy sector in Economy
2009
2ND STAGE
2013
2015
3RD STAGE
2020
2022
2030
Overcoming the crisis in the
Economy and Energy sector
Modernization of Energy sector
Increase of power efficiency and
energy saving in the Economy and
Energy sector
Innovative development of Energy
sector
New oil and gas fields development
(Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and
the Far East)
Highly effective use of traditional
power resources
Switch to the Energy of the Future
Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population
16
ES-2030: a Change of Role of Energy Sector
1st stage (up to 2012-2015)
- post-crisis development
2nd stage (up to 2020-2022)
- energy efficiency development
3rd stage (up to 2030)
- innovative development
Current state
Energy Sector
financial “donor”
of the national
economy
1st stage
Energy Sector
investment
«engine»
of the national economy
2009-2015
1990-2009
2nd stage
3rd stage
Energy Sector
«innovative designer»
of the national
economy’s structure
Innovative
Energy Sector
2022-2030
2015-2022
7
17
ES-2030 : Aim and Goals
Aim
Innovative and efficient energy development
Stable institutional environment in the energy sector
Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure
Goals
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy
and energy sector
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing
of energy resources
Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the
global energy system
18
ES-2030: towards Energy Efficiency
20
ES-2030: successive stabilization of CO2 emissions
%
3166 mln t СО2-equivalent
89-90
82-83
62
Emission of greenhouse gases in Russia will not exceed the level of 1990.
21
Energy intensity of GDP (by PPP) in the world
Reasons of high
energy intensity of
Russian economy
0,6
0,53
0,55
0,5
0,49
0,5
Severe climatic conditions
0,4
Specific allocation of
population and industry;
necessity for extensive
transport communications
0,35
0,3
0,28
0,26
0,25
0,23
0,22
0,21
0,21
0,2
0,16 0,16 0,16
0,15
Prevalence of “heavy”
energy-intensive industries in
national economy
0,16
0,14
0,12
0,1
0,1
0,05
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t o.e./ 1000 USD
0,45
Technological backwardness
of some industries
Underestimated price of
energy resources in home
market, which doesn’t
stimulate energy saving
11
Barriers for energy saving and energy efficiency in
Russia
Lack of motivation
•Budget constraints
•Comparatively low energy tariffs
•Cross-subsidizing
•Shortage of controlling tools in
energy consumption
2
Lack of information
•Weak informational support of
measures in energy saving and
energy efficiency
•Stereotyped energy-wasteful behavior
3
Lack of experience in
financing projects in
energy saving and
energy efficiency
•Exacting requirements for projects in
energy saving and energy efficiency
from investment banks
1
4
12
Lack of organizational
and coordinating skills
•Increase in energy efficiency is not
perceived as a cure for a wide range
of economic and social problems
Potential for energy saving in Russia
Services,
construction
9,6
Agriculture
3,6
Living apartments
18,3
State institutions
5,2
Fuel production
5,3
APG combustion
5,5
Consumption of energy
resources can be reduced by:
20% in heat supply
45% of the
current
consumption
Electroenergetics
15,2
40% in transportation and
industry
Heat supply
9,9
Transportation
13,1
30% in electroenergetics
Industry
14,2
50% in living apartments
Strategic targets in energy saving and energy efficiency in Russia
President D.A. Medvedev: reduction of energy intensity of Russian GDP by 45% by
the year of 2020 (compared with the level of 2007)
Energy Strategy 2030: reduction of energy intensity of Russian GDP by 2.5-3 times
13
by the year of 2030 (compared with the level of 2007)
Key directions of the Russian energy policy for
energy saving and energy efficiency
Housing and
communal services
Rational utilization
of APG, RES
•Wide-scale introduction of
equipment controlling energy
consumption
•Obligatory standards for
energy efficiency for new and
reconstructed buildings
•Modernization of heat and
water supply systems
•Introduction of energy saving
technologies in outdoor lighting,
sanitation and etc.
•Provision state organizations
with legal rights for allocation
funds obtained from energy
saving
•Elimination of infrastructure,
technological and legal barriers
for rational use of APG
(increase in APG-utilization
coefficient up to 95%)
•Wide-scale introduction and
use of RES (5-fold increase in
electricity production on the
basis of RES)
•Top priority of decentralized
heat- and power supply
systems, rational use of local
RES and modern technologies
and equipment in the Siberia
and Far East
Effective use of
energy resources in
industry
•Ban against energy-wasteful
technologies
•Obligatory standards for
energy efficiency
•Development of energy
services
•Modernization of statistical
accounting in the sphere of
energy saving and energy
efficiency
•Energy audit of all the
enterprises on a regularly basis
•Monitoring of energy saving
programs
Rationalization of prices for energy resources in home market
Informational support of arrangements in energy saving and energy
efficiency aimed at alteration of wasteful stereotypes of energy
consumption among population
14
Investment in energy saving
and energy efficiency in Russia
Total investment volume: 320 billion USD*
Effect for:
End users
•Saving of 80*
billion USD
•Payback – 4 years
!
National economy
•Saving of 120-150*
billion USD
•Payback – 2-3 years
The cost of energy saving and improvement of
energy efficiency in Russia is
3 times cheaper
than expansion of energy resources’ extraction
* Official exchange rate, 2007
15
Expected results of energy saving and increase in
energy efficiency in Russia
1
Saving of 240 bln m3 of natural gas, 340 bln kilowatt-hour of
electric power, 90 mln t of coal and 45 mln t of oil and oil products
2
Improvement in competitiveness of national economy under
conditions of growing tariffs for energy resources
3
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and natural gas:
84 – 112 bln USD
4
Decrease in governmental expanses:
3 – 5 bln USD
5
Reduction in СО2 –emissions: 790 mln t/year
(Volume of emissions in 2030 = 80% of 1990’s level)
Improvement of ecological situation in the country
Rise of national status in resolving global ecological problems
16
EU and Russia cooperation: common opportunities
Energy efficiency
Modernization and
Innovations
EU-Russia Centre for energy
innovation
Common investment in Russia
Cooperation in renewable energy
Interconnection of power
systems
Heating efficiency in Russia: EU
experience is needed
Cooperation in smart greed
development
Regional and municipal energy
cooperation
Import of equipment and
technology
10
Thank you for your attention!
Institute of Energy Strategy
www.energystrategy.ru
Tel. +7(495) 698-52-34
Е-mail: [email protected]