Transcript Энергетическая стратегия России (ЭС

Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030:
Eastern vector
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
Joint Symposium
August 30 – September 3, 2010
within framework of Baikal Economic Forum
ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 and its PREDECESSORS
Conception of the state energy policy in
new economic conditions
1992
(Ratified by the Government: №26 of 10.09.92)
Decree of the President №472
of 07.08.95 «About the basic directions of
the state energy policy»
1995
Fundamentals of the ES - 2010
(Ratified by the Government: №1006 of 13.10.95)
ES – 2020
(approved be decree № 1234-r of the Government
of the Russian Federation of 28.08.03)
ES – 2030
approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government
of the Russian Federation of 13.11.2009
2003
2009
2
ES-2030: from FORECAST to TARGET MODELING
ES-2020
млн т
250
245,2
227,5
203,7
213,2
165,9
167
101,5
175,2
172,6
194,8
183,3
174,1
106,2
104,4
108,8
100
90,9
199,5
204
182,4
166,8
105,3
95,2
86,6
101,7
93,2
произв одств енная
мощность
разрезов
222,6
188,1
200
150
233,9
117,3
103,5
125
130,2
107,9
108,6
добыча угля на
разрезах
130,8
ES-2030
произв одств енная
мощность шахт
104
добыча угля на
шахтах
50
0
Разрезы
Шахты
600
500
660
201
374
649
Target Modeling
394
402
2030 г.
369
301
2025 г.
2020 г.
2025 г.
2030 г.
305
316
2020 г.
226
148
206
212
203
299
258
213
200
100
506
429
345
171
300
507
132
400
528
242
502
611
Всего
258
млн т
700
255
2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г. 2003 г. 2004 г. 2005 г. 2006 г. 2007 г. 2008 г.
0
2010 г.
2015 г.
Минимальный вариант
2010 г.
2015 г.
Максимальный вариант
Forecasts and Scenarios
3
STAGES OF ENERGY STRATEGY 2030
1ST STAGE
Share of Energy sector in Economy
2009
2ND STAGE
2013
2015
3RD STAGE
2020
2022
2030
Overcoming the crisis in the
Economy and Energy sector
Modernization of Energy sector
Increase of power efficiency and
energy saving in the Economy and
Energy sector
Innovative development of Energy
sector
New oil and gas fields development
(Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and
the Far East)
Highly effective use of traditional
power resources
Switch to the Energy of the Future
Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population
4
PRINCIPLE of TIME SHIFTING in the ES-2030
(example of electricity production and consumption)
Electricity Production, bln kWtH
2030
Electricity Consumption, bln kWtH
2030
2028
2028
2026
2026
2024
2024
2022
2022
2 years
2020
2020
2018
2018
2016
2016
2014
2014
1 year
2 years
1 year
2012
1000
1100
1200
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
Moderate
scenario
умеренный
вариант
умеренный
вариант
инновационный
вариант
Moderate scenario
Innovative scenario
2012
1050
1300
1400
1500
1600
Innovative scenario
инновационный
вариант
Risks of an exit of scenarios for limits of a base look-ahead field are considered through
possible time shifts of termination years of the 1st and 2nd stages of ES-2030
5
ES-2030 in the SYSTEM of STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS
for the EASTERN SIBERIA and the FAR EAST
Long-term forecast of the
development of Russian
economy for the years
2009-2030
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
Strategy of socioeconomical
development of the
Far East and Baikal
region up to 2025
Program of
development of oil
processing capacity in
the regions of Eastern
Siberia and the Far East
Eastern
Gas
Program
Strategy of
development of
Eastern Siberia and
the Far East up to
2030
Investment programs of energy companies
6
EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK
Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector
Eastern vector
task №19 «Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific
countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16–
17%»
task №10 «Implementation of a complex of program
measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development
in the Eastern Siberia and Far East»
task № 17 «Extended reproduction and attraction of
human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern
Siberia and Far East»
Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector:
Eastern vector
Energy infrastructure: development and diversification
ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program,
petro- and gas-chemistry development
Development of oil and gas complexes
in Eastern regions of Russia
Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and
Krasnoyarsk regions
Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern
regions of Russia and Arctic shelf
Non-fuel energy
Energy saving
Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of
the Northern Sea Way
Large-scale development of hydro
energy and renewables
Modernization of electric power and
heat supply systems in the Region
7
THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION
OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT
Forecast of gas export
Forecast of oil and oil products export
400
350
400,0
mln. t
328,1
20,2
339-341
332-349
30-33
47-55
353-390
336-359
350,0
306-329
300
300,0
310-311
70-80
250
24-36
159,8
158168
95,8
2005
bln. cub. m
250,0
200
264,1
265
249
150
200
100
200,0
189194
201
88-90
8792
7892
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
150,0
100,0
50
43,8
264265
248249
194207
2005
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
0
50,0
0,0
CIS
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Oil export in Asia-Pacific
region, % of total export
100
80
60
40
20
256,0
7075
55
22-25
6
2005
Gas export in Asia-Pacific
region, % of total export
100
60
40
60
40
2030
70-75
80
19-20
20
0
2030
Electricity export in AsiaPacific region, % of total
export
100
75-80
80
60
40
15
20
3
0
0
2005
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Coal export in Asia-Pacific
region, % of total export
100
80
20
0
0
CIS
2005
2030
2005
2030
8
KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST
 Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline
 Sakhalin projects
 Eastern Gas Program
 Hydroelectricty and Renewables
9
FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM
2008
2009
Strategic
Indicator for
the first stage
of ES-2030
(2013-2015)
Share of Eastern Siberia and the
Far East in oil production
3%
4,6%
10-12%
Share of Eastern Siberia and the
Far East in gas production
2%
3,7%
7-8%
LNG share in gas export
0%
3,5%
4-5%
Share of the countries of the AsiaPacific Region in the structure of
gas export
0%
3,5%
11-12%
Capacity volume of coal sea ports
terminal in the East, % to 2005
110%
122%
124-125%
10