Transcript Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030 Alexey Gromov

Energy Strategy of Russia
for the Year 2030
Alexey Gromov
PhD in Economic Geography
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Oil & Gas Outlook Russia 2009
December, 8, 2009
Moscow
Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of
Documents of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the
development of Russian
economy for the years
2009-2030
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of
development of the
gas industry for the
year 2030
Eastern
Gas
Program
General scheme of
allocation of power
generating facilities
for the year 2020
General scheme of
development of the oil
industry for the year
2030
Conception of the state
program for exploration and
exploitation of the
continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Investment programs of
Program of longterm development
of the fuel and
energy complex of
the Russian Far
East
State program of
energy saving
Strategy of
development of the
power generation
in the Russian Far
East
energy companies
2
State Energy Policy in Russia
Rational market environment
Advanced standards and regulations
Strategic initiatives
Management of state property
Development Formation of
Subsoil
of home
rational
resources
energy
energy
management
markets
balance
Social policy
in the energy
sector
Regional
energy
policy
External
energy
policy
Scientific, technical and
innovative policy
3
Aim and Goals of the ES-2030
Aim
Innovative and efficient energy development
Stable institutional environment in the energy sector
Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure
Goals
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy
and energy sector
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing
of energy resources
Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the
global energy system
Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite consequences of the global economic
crisis
4
Forecasted Change of the Fuel and Energy
Complex’s Role in the Russian economy
2030
2005
30%
19%
Energy sector in GDP
Energy sector’s
export in GDP
Energy resources in
export
64%
27%
Investment in
energy sector in
total investment
18%
5%
34%
11%
5
Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of GDP
and Domestic Demand for Primary Energy Resources
6
Economic efficiency of the energy sector
Strategic aim:
Efficient relationship between government and energy business
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Creation of favorable economic environment
Optimization of tax burden
Support of strategic initiatives
Development of the insurance system of long-term
investments’ risks
Rationalization of amortization policy
Formation of united leasing companies
Perfection of state price (tariff) regulations in the sphere
of natural monopolies
Completion of liberalization processes in power
generation
System of prospective regulations, standards and norms
Perfection of license policy, elimination of inadequate
administrative barriers
Support of small and medium-scale business in FEC
Stimulation of modernization and innovative development
of FEC
Organization and stimulation of raising the level of stuff’s
skills in FEC
Strategic indicators of economic (budget) efficiency of FEC
First stage (2013-2015)
Second stage (2020-2022)
Third stage (2030)
Formation of stable institutional and legal environment in FEC
Financial stability of FEC and national economy
7
Ecological security of the energy sector
Strategic indicators
First stage (2013-2015)
Second stage (2020-2022)
Third stage (2030)
Decrease in emission of pollutants into atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, % by the level of 2005:
no less than 15%
no less than 30%
no less than 50%
Volume of greenhouse gases emission, % of 1990 level:
no more than 83%
no more than 92%
no more than 105%
Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 – 75%):
95%
% by the level of 1990
110
95%
100
100
95%
105
Forecasted dynamics of СО2-emissions
89
90
80
80
70
73
92
82
76
69
70
60
50
1990
1995
2000
2005
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
8
Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector
Energy infrastructure: deevelopment and diversification
Development of oil and gas complexes
in Eastern regions of Russia
Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern
regions of Russia and Arctic off-shore
Non-fuel energy
Energy saving
9
Energy infrastructure: development and
diversification
OIL
NATURAL GAS
 Baltic Pipeline System - 2 – 50 mln. т/y
 Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean – 80 mln. т/y
 North Stream – 55 bln. cub. m/y
 South Stream – 30 bln. cub. m/y
10
Development of oil and gas complexes
in Eastern regions of Russia
Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources in Eastern regions of Russia will help to
satisfy the domestic demand for energy resources and diversify directions of export
11
Exploitation of Oil and Gas Resources
of New Regions
(including Arctic offshore)
Shift in natural gas extraction in Russia
600,0
1000
885-940
700
641
4
600
46
3
500
400
85-87
45-65
500,0
67-68
400,0
185220
470,1
24,5
49,1
52,2
30-32
300,0
4,4
5,3
0,2
new regions
3
530-535
mln. t
bln. cub. m
800
new regions
900
300
Shift in oil extraction in Russia
32-33
69-75
21-22
42-43
25-29
34-36
131-137
200,0
585
334,3
200
317323
100
0
2005
2030
Nadyum-Pur-Taz Region
European part of Russia
Bolshekhetskaya valley
Yamal
Ob-Taz estuary
Eastern Siberia
Far East
Others
301-303
100,0
0,0
2005
2030
Far East
Eastern Siberia
Northern Cacauses and Caspian region
North and North-West of Russia
Urals region
Volga region
Western Siberia
12
Non-fuel energy
35
Priority development:
Forecasted development of renewable power
generation
87
100
90
30
POWER
GENERATION
Renewable
mln. kilowatt
Hydro
25
70
61
20
60
50
15
40
25
10
30
20
18
5
Putting into operation installed capacity
of 23-33 GWt will increase the share of
renewable energy in power generation
from 0,5 to 4,5%
bln. kilowatt-hour
80
Nuclear
9
0,5
10
5
0
0
2005
1st stage
2nd stage
3rd stage
Installed capacity, mln. Kilowatt
Power generation on the basis of renewable energy
resources, bln. kilowatt-hour
13
Energy Saving
Potential of energy saving in
Russia is estimated at level of
45% of the current
consumption of energy
resources
Consumption of energy
resources can be reduced by:
20% in heat supply
Expected results of
energy saving and
increase in energy
efficiency in Russia
1
Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340 bln.
kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal
and 45 mln t of oil and oil products
2
Improvement in competitiveness of national
economy under conditions of growing tariffs for
energy resources
3
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and
natural gas: 84-112 bln. USD
4
Decrease in governmental expanses:
3-5 bln. USD
5
Reduction in CO2 –emissions: 790 mln t/y
Improvement in ecological situation in the country
30% in power generation
40% in industry and
transportation
50% in living apartments
14
Export of primary energy resources
up to 2030
15
Strategic indicators of Russian oil industry
Indicators/directions
2008
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
30-32
32-35
35-37
10-12
12-14
18-19
Efficiency of land use
30
Recovery ratio
Production
Share of Eastern Siberia and Far East in total
production, %
3
Transportation
Growth in capacity of arterial pipelines and
export maritime-terminals, mln. t (basic year –
2005)
5
58-60
65-70
70-75
Proficit of export capacities (including those
for transit purposes), mln. t
17
25-30
35-40
40-45
Refining
Average processing depth
72
79
82-83
89-90
Ratio of light oil products
57
64
67-68
72-73
Nelson index of complexity
4,3
6,0
6,5
8,5
Consumption of oil products per capita, t
0,5
1,0
1,1-1,3
1,3-1,6
14-15
22-25
Export of oil and oil products
Share of “Eastern vector” in the total volume
of oil and oil products export, %
8
10-11
16
Oil Sector: Forecast up to 2030
Oil production by region up to 2030
600
500
mln t
470,2
487,6
486495
505525
Oil refining up to 2030
530535
400
mln t
311
300
208
239
237
232
200
400
100
133-140
114.1
100.2
71,6%
56.7
72%
63.9
260
275
249
187-188
151-155
79%
83%
48-50
40-42
89-90%
26-29
0
300
2005 г.
(факт)
2008 г.
(факт)
1 этап
2 этап
3 этап
Oil export up to 2030
mln t
200
400
300
100
325
328
339-341
332-349
16
41
20
47
30-33
47-55
44
46
268
2008 г.
(факт)
1 этап
2 этап
3 этап
70-80
42
200
0
2005 г.
(факт)
306-329
261
100
264265
248249
1 этап
2 этап
194207
0
2005 г. (факт) 2008 г. (факт)
3 этап
17
17
Strategic indicators of Russian gas industry
Indicators/directions
2008
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
Production
Share of “new region” in total
production, %, including
Yamal
Eastern Siberia and Far East
Share of independent producers
in total production, %
3
13-14
21-23
38-39
0
6
9
23-24
2
7-8
12-14
15
17
16
25-26
27
Transportation
Growth of arterial pipelines’
length, % by the level of 2005
3
8-10
13-15
20-23
Share of reconstructed pipelines,
% of the total length of United
System of Gas Supply
4
10-11
12-13
25-26
Export
Share of the Asia-Pacific in total
export, %
0
11-12
16-17
18-19
Share of LNG in total export, %
0
4-5
10-11
14-15
18
Gas Sector: Forecast up to 2030
Gas export up to 2030
Gas production by region up to 2030
Bln cubic metres
Bln cubic metres
1000
400
803837
800
641
664
685745
885940
349-368
332-341
300
270-294
247.5
2436
158.4
158168
95.8
89.3
2005 г.
(факт)
2008 г.
(факт)
255.6
55
7075
600
200
159.8
400
189194
200202
8890
8792
7892
1 этап
2 этап
3 этап
100
200
0
2005 г.
(факт)
0
2008 г.
(факт)
1 этап
2 этап
3 этап
19
19
Forecast of investment in energy sector and
energy supply of the national economy for the
year of 2030
3000
2356-2763
Energy saving
242-253
2500
147-154
40-45
Autonomous energetics
113-134
Centralized heat supply
bln. USD (2007)
2000
572-888
1311-1552
Renewable energetics
1500
158-160
29-34
1000
534-551
8-9
41-43
500
0
55-59
122-125
8-9
82-97
24-27
565-590
42-47
110-234
150-155 12-13
131-136 14-16
162-165
134-139
1st Stage
2nd Stage
Coal industry
Gas industry
24-28
7-9
Power generation
68-72
340-529
516-660 38-39
68-76
284-299
609-625
313-321
3rd Stage
Oil industry
Total 2008 -2030
24-32% of investment in FEC will be directed in power generation, 22-26% - in oil industry, 21-24% - in
gas industry and 3% - in coal industry. The sphere of energy supply will receive 22-23% of investment,
forecasted in ES-2030
20
Expected results of ES-2030
1) Guaranteed energy security of Russia and its regions
2) Competent participation of Russia in ensuring global energy security, partly by means of
diversification of export
3) Gradual decrease in dependency of national economy from oil and gas sector and respective
decline of FEC’s share in the structure of GDP from 30 to 18%
4) Decrease in specific energy intensity of GDP by 2,1-2,3 times
5) Optimization of fuel and energy balance, decline in the share of natural gas in energy
consumption from 52 to 46-47% and increase in the share of non-fuel energetics from
11 to 13-14%
6) Exploration and exploitation of new oil and gas producing regions
7) Development of the social partnership between energy companies and society
8) Improvement in financial stability, budget efficiency and investment prosperity of energy
companies
9) Innovative renovation of production assets and energy infrastructure, development of
new energy technologies
10) Ecological security and efficiency of FEC, limitation of greenhouse gases emissions (up to
100-105% by the level of 1990) owing to realization of the potential for energy saving
21
Thank you for your attention!
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