Transcript Энергетическая стратегия России (ЭС

Strategic development of the
Russian gas industry for the year 2030
A.I. Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
PhD in Economic Geography
International seminar “Natural gas markets”
2009 Grenoble, France
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Energy Policy and
Energy Strategy of Russia
Chief aim of Energy Policy
effective utilization of energy resources and
energy
potential
for
the
sustainable
development of national economy, improvement
in quality of life of population and geopolitical
stability of the country.
Energy Strategy
the document, which determines aims, priorities
and reference points for different stages of
long-term development alongside with the
mechanisms of national energy policy.
Energy Strategy 2030
the principal document for the Russian fuel and
energy complex for the nearest future
(currently under elaboration)
2
Energy Strategy 2030 in the hierarchy of
strategic documents
Conception of the longterm development of the
Russian Federation for
the year 2020
Long-term forecast of
the Russian economy
development for the
years 2007 - 2030
ES-2030
General schemes of development
for the industries of FEC
Investment programs of development for the industries of FEC
Investment programs of energy companies
3
Principal aims of the
Energy Strategy 2030
 shift from resource-based and exportoriented to innovative development of the
national economy
 change in the volumes and structure of
natural resources’ production
 organization
of
competitive
market
environment in national fuel and energy
complex
 scientific and technological leadership in
key sectors of the world economy, which
guarantee national security (incl. energy
security) and competitiveness in global
markets
 further integration into the global energy
system
4
Expected dynamics of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and Specific Energy Intensity (SEI)
for the year 2030 (reference year 2005)
4,5
100
89
4,0
90
83
86
3,7
3,5
80
73
3,0
70
2,9
3,0
%
hundred %
SEI
62
2,5
60
58
2,2
2,0
2,5
52
43
GDP
1,9
50
49
1,6
45
1,5
40
1,2
1,1
1,0
2005
2010
1,2
30
2015
2020
2025
2030
Key tendencies

increase in GDP by 3.0-3.7 times by 2030 compared with the level of 2005

decrease in SEI by 2.2-2.3 times by 2030 compared with the level of 2005
5
2028.01
2026.01
 stage
2024.01
2022.01
2020.01
2018.01
 stage
2016.01
2014.01
2012.01
2010,01
WTI (U.S. Dollars Per Barrel)
2008.01
2006.01
2004.01
2002.01
2000.01
1998.01
1996.01
1994.01
1992.01
80
1990.01
1988.01
1986.01
1984.01
1982.01
1980.01
1978.01
200
1976.01
1974.01
Forecast of oil prices for the year 2030
220
 stage
180
160
Forecast
140
120
100
Actual
60
40
20
0
6
Transformation of the
national economy’s structure
2008
2030
FEC – 30%
FEC – 18%
7
Expected dynamics of greenhouse gases’ emission
for the year 2030
100
%
3166 mln t СО2-equivalent
82
91
50
1990
2000
62
2010
2020
2030
Conclusions:
Emission of greenhouse gases in Russia in 2030 even in case of
maximum consumption of primary energy resources (scenario 2)
will not exceed the level of 1990.
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Expected transformation of
Fuel and Energy Balance for the year 2030
Production of PER
100%
90%
6,4
7,98,2
8,19,0
12,5
12,513,5
13,314,5
Consumption of PER
10,112,4
11,612,0
11,712,0
80%
17,6
16,618,0
17,719,7
19,1
20,720,8
20,421,0
52,3
49,750,6
47,949,5
43,646,3
2005
2015
2020
2030
12,914,6
19,321,2
70%
70%
38,6
36,037,8
34,235,0
30,733,3
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
11,2
90%
14,616,3
80%
60%
100%
42,5
42,943,6
43,543,9
43,944,7
10%
20%
20,521,5
10%
0%
0%
2005
Gas
2015
2020
2030
Coal
Oil and oil products
Non-fuel energetics
Key tendencies
decrease in the share of natural gas consumption from 52.3% in 2005 to 45-46% in 2030
increase in the share of coal consumption from 17.6% in 2005 to 19-21% in 2030
increase in the share of non-fuel energetics consumption from 11.2% in 2005 to 14-15% in 2030
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Export of Russian primary
energy resources
1100
1050
1025
1040
1030
1025
mln t standard fuel
1000
1000
950
945
917
900
865
865
850
800
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Key tendencies
 increase in the volume of PER export by 1.2 times by 2030 compared with the level of 2005
 high volatility of prices for major Russian exported commodities
 intense competition on the global energy markets
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Stages of ES-2030 realization
1st stage (2009-2012 (2015))
- post-crisis development
2nd stage (2013 (2015) -2020 (2022)) - energy efficiency development
3rd stage (2021 (2023) - 2030 гг.)
Current state
FEC
financial “donor”
of the national
economy
1990-2009
1st stage
FEC
investment
«engine»
of the national economy
2009-2015
- innovative development
2nd stage
FEC
«innovative designer»
of the national
economy’s structure
2015-2022
3rd stage
Innovative FEC
2022-2030
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Forecast for Russian natural gas
production and export
1000
900
837
940
876
856
800
745
802
663
700
bln cub. m
905
Production
685
641
646
600
500
Export
400
359
311
300
250
256
352
384
371
390
371
286
246
200
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Key tendencies
increase in production of natural gas by 37-47% by 2030 compared with the level of 2005
increase in export of natural gas by 45-52% by 2030 compared with the level of 2005
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Expected dynamics of natural gas production
1000
802837
900
3
800
bln. cub. m
3
700
641
4
600
46
0
3
500
685745
34-41
9
13
10
10
131-137
72-76
25
21
400
300
45-65
185220
32
68
585
529559
200
Others
14
Far East
Eastern Siberia
116-119
7
0
68-87
26-55
54-91
12-44
57-67
876940
461477
100
313336
European part of
Russia
Yamal
Bolshehetskaya
valley
Ob'-Taz bay
Nadym-Pyr-Taz region
(Tyumen' oblast)
0
2005



2015
2020
Key tendencies
2030
decreasing production from “old” fields in Western Siberia
exploitation of “new” fields in Eastern Siberia, Far East and northern parts of Western Siberia
(Yamal, Ob’-Taz Bay, Bolshekhetskaya valley)
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construction of transport infrastructure, gas-treating and gas-chemical facilities in “new” gasproducing regions
Extension of the transport infrastructure for
natural gas export to Europe
 Nord Stream – 55 bln cub. m/year
 South Stream – 30 bln cub. m/year
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Formation of new gas-extraction centers in
the Siberia and Far East
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Expected dynamics of Russian natural gas
export
400,0
371-390
352-359
350,0
73-75
55-60
286-311
300,0
24-36
млрд. куб. м
250,0
200,0
180,5
205213
217225
88-90
87-92
73-75
2015
2020
2030
174-186
150,0
132,7
100,0
50,0
47,8
0,0
2005
CIS
Western direction
Eastern direction
Key tendencies



Europe will remain the main export market for Russian natural gas
The role of Eastern direction will increase
Russia will increase LNG production and export
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Priorities for Russia in home and foreign
markets of natural gas
Home market
Foreign markets
 Demonopolization of the extractive
and distributing sectors of the gas
industry
 Governmental control over gastransporting infrastructure
alongside with non-discriminatory
access for all gas-producing
companies to it
 Gradual transition to the market
principles of gas-pricing from 2011
 Governmental control over the level
of gas prices for households
 Further gasification of urban and
rural settlements, extension of the
eastern gas-transporting system
 Formation of wide net of
underground gas-holders close to
consumers
 Development of synthetic liquid fuel
(SLF) technologies
 Formation of home market for SLF
 Guaranteed execution of the
negotiated contracts
 Further cooperation with strategic
partners
 Diversification of export directions
 Development of LNG export (14-15%
of the total gas export in 2030)
including to new markets (the USA
and Asia-Pacific countries)
 Import of natural gas from the
Central Asia and its re-export
mainly to the CIS-countries
 Support of Russian gas companies
in exploration and exploitation of gas
Fields and building gas-transport
infrastructure abroad (Iran, Algeria,
Venezuela, Central Asia etc.)
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Expected need in Investment
in the Russian gas industry
600
567-595
100105
500
bln. USD (2007)
400
Governmental guarantees for investment
283-299
300
277289
44-47
200
153-160
31-32
100
Mechanisms of
investment stimulation
131-136
63-65
49-54
43-45
2008-2015
2016-2022
0
Extraction
141149
25-26
73-75
Transportation
Refunding of gas companies’ debts
96103
2023-2030
188202
Tax-optimization
Total 20082030
Treating, storage, etc.
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Russian gas industry : stages of development
2009-2015
 Putting into operation “new” gas fields in Nadym-Pyr-Taz region in Western Siberia,
active exploration and preparation works in the Yamal, Eastern Siberia and Far East,
shelf of arctic seas
 Construction of gas-transporting objects, incl. “Nord Stream” and “SRTO-Torzhok”
 Development of the underground gas-storage system, formation of commercial gas
reserves
 Export of Russian LNG to the Asia-Pacific region
 Start of gas-treating and gas-chemical complexes’ creation in the Eastern and Western
Siberia
 Guided liberalization, development of exchange sale of natural gas
2016-2022
 Putting into operation “new” gas fields in Ob’ and Taz bays, Shtockman, Krasnoyarsk
and Irkutsk gas-extracting centres
 Building of gas-transporting infrastructure in the Eastern parts of Russia
 Creation of the integrated gas-transporting system between Europe and Asia (incl. gas
pipe South-Stream)
2023-2030
 Enlargement of natural gas use for the purpose of chemistry and synthetic liquid fuels
production
 Completion of the gasification of urban and rural settlements, extension of the eastern
gas-transporting system
 Putting into operation “new” gas fields of the Yakutsk gas-extracting centre and eastern
arctic seas
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 Widening of the integrated gas-transporting system between Europe and Asia,
management of transit supplies
Thank you
for your
attention!
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