Transcript GDF SUEZ - International Economic Forum of the Americas

Meeting the Challenges of
Energy Demand
Karim Barbir
SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management
GDF SUEZ Energy North America
November 22, 2010
Who is GDF SUEZ ?
Overview
• 2009 Revenues: €79.9 billion; EBITDA: €14.0
billion; over 200,000 worldwide employees
• Electricity: World’s largest IPP
• Natural Gas: #1 buyer and transporter in Europe
• LNG: #1 importer in Europe and U.S.
North American Business
• Integrated energy company; 2,000 employees
• Electricity: ~8,000 MW in U.S., Canada & Mexico
• 23 biomass, wind and hydro-powered assets in
US and Canada
• Carbon light generation: 21% renewable; 67% gas
• LNG: #1 importer in U.S., supply 20% of New
England’s annual gas demand
• Retail: #2 U.S. electricity retailer servicing
commercial & industrial customers
• Mexico: #1 private gas transmission; gas
distribution to nearly 400k customers
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Challenges/Opportunities for North
American Energy
Economic
Recovery
Primary
Energy
Sources
Renewables
Regulatory
Environment
and
Sustainability
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Economic Recovery Underway… And
New Power Generation Will Be Needed
US Example
Today’s Generation Mix (capacity)
Tomorrow
Hydro
Nuclear
Wind;
other
renewables*
Oil
products
Coal
10%
10%
31%
4%
New build
considerations
• Sustainability
• Infrastructure
needs
6%
• Supply diversity
39%
• Price
competitiveness
Natural gas
* Solar, wood, biomass, geothermal
Source: EIA
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New Generation Build – A Cost
Perspective
Levelized Cost
USD per MWh
Carbon
Intense
Carbon Light
Carbon Free
$200
$180
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Combined Cycle
Gas - $4/MMBtu
Combined Cycle
Gas - $6/MMBtu
Capital Cost
Combustion
Turbine Gas $6/MMBtu
Coal - SC
Property Tax & Insurance
Fixed O&M
Source: GDF SUEZ Energy North America Analysis
Nuclear
Fuel & Variable
Wind
Solar (PV)
With $12/Ton CO2
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Canada
Wind Speed Map
United States
Wind Speed Map
Vancouver
Renewables- Not Where We
Consume Energy
Montreal
Toronto
United States
Solar Intensity
• Significant incremental transmission will be needed over the next 15 years to integrate
renewable development into U.S. generation fleet,
• $50 billion to satisfy existing state-level RPS standards
• As much as $130 billion to meet a 20% national renewable portfolio standard
• Texas PUC, as an example, approved nearly $5 billion for 18,456 MW of transmission investment
to support renewable investments
Source: NREL, Environment Canada
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Shale Gas - N. America’s Answer to a
Domestic, Low Cost Primary Energy Source?
 Supply: may be as much as 100 years of U.S. consumption by some estimates
 New uses: gas-fired power generation to displace coal; petrochemicals return? residential and
transportation switching?
 Technology adoption: to Europe? Asia?
Source: EIA 2010
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In a World of Cheap Gas, There is an
Expanded Role for Natural Gas Fired
Generation
Acceptable
generation
tradeoffs
Competitive
Advantages
kg CO2 per MWh
• Rapid deployment vs.
nuclear
• Attractive opex/ capex
profile vs. wind and
nuclear
• High efficiency, off-theshelf technology
Carbon Light!
A fuel source for
the ‘Utility of the
Future’
Coal
1.0
Natural Gas 0.4
• Flexible generation
backup for wind and
solar
• Electric vehicles
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GDF Suez Energy North AmericaMeeting the Challenges Now
• Nuclear as a long-term optionclean, base load generation
Longer-term
Options
• Concentrated solar, rooftop
solar
Expand renewables footprint
where economically sensible;
improve carbon position of
fleet
• Renewables with
PPAs
• Canada, US, Mexico
• CCGT
Maintain carbon-light fleet anchored by
natural gas-fired generation
• Hydro and
pumped storage
• Renewables firm
support
A
diversified, sustainable portfolio profitable
under a variety of economic scenarios
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