Transcript Slide 1
Power & Renewables: context, promise and policy AIBC 2010 Session on Power and Renewables Energy, Resources and Associated Infrastructure Conference 11 June, 2010 Ligia Noronha Director Resources, Regulation & Global Security TERI, India Outline I. II. The Context The potential for renewable power III. Policy Innovations to address energy challenges and create markets for renewable power IV. RE business and research opportunities I The Context Key Challenges Low access: Over 500 million without electricity and 700 million dependent on traditional fuels; a per capita annual consumption of 650 units High electricity shortages: estimated at nearly 10% in energy terms and over 13 % in peak demand Humungous projected energy resource needs to deliver 8% growth High dependence on fossil fuels and imports: 70% of its oil is imported; 11% of its coal and 17% of its natural gas Carbon concerns: an additional constraint India’s Energy Resource Needs 2002-2031/32 (for 8% growth p.a) Projections to 2031 Coal – double (300 ) Gas – 4 times (29 ) Oil –2.3 times(148) Hydro – 3.6 times (13) Nuclear - 5.8 times (24) IEP, 2006 Range of Imports in 2031 Fossil fuel imports: 3871010 Mtoe; (Import dependency: 29-59%) Coal imports : 72-462 mtoe; (Import dependency:11-45%) Oil import: 315-451 MT; (Import dependency: 90-93%) Natural Gas import: 0-97 Mtoe (Import dependency: 0-49%) ( figures In brackets, mtoe in 2002) Electricity fuel mix Coal 52% RES 34% 23% 10,897 MW 78% 39,222 MW Diesel Nuclear 1% 3% RES Gas 29% 10% 1,141 2,944MW MW 71% 90% 7,231 MW 9,755 Gas 10% Nuclear Diesel Total installed capacity as on 31.3.2009 is 148 GW Coal Other RE Wind Hydro Renewable Power in India, 2010 Grid Connected Renewable Power, 2010 Biomass Power 0% Wind Power 1% 8% 5% Small Hydro Power 16% Total : 404.56 MW/MWeq 70% Cogeneration-bagasse Waste to Energy Off Grid/Distributed Renewable Power (MW/MWeq) Biomass Power / Cogen.(nonbagasse) Biomass Gasifier Solar Power Total: 16817.29 MW 12% 1% 0% Waste-to- Energy Source MNRE as on 31.3.2010 30% 57% Solar PV Power Plants AeroGenerators/Hybrid Systems Key policy directions and challenges All available energy sources to be used; special focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency and DSM, and nuclear power The power sector is seen as best placed to make the transition to renewable energy technologies, given that 80% of investments to 2031 are yet to come Markets have been liberalized; prices to be market determined; efficiency across the value change, subsidies to be targeted Key challenges: time to make the transitions and costs II The Potential for Renewable Energy Electricity Capacity in best case scenario (2031/32) Other renewables 13% Solar 2% Coal 41% Hydro 23% Nuclear 10% Source: Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission 2006 Natural Gas 11% The Potential: Solar radiation over India Most parts receive 4-7 kWh/sqm/d Incidence: 5000 trillion kWh/year energy Both solar thermal and solar PV can be harnessed Key Constraints: Land, storage, high cost Wind resources in India Potential : 45,000 MW The success story so far 70% of current grid connected RE (non hydro) is from wind (>10GW) Indian companies are already global Has achieved grid parity in costs Bio-energy Large biomass resource base > 600 million tonnes Technologies of interest Liquid fuels (ethanol, bio-diesel) Gaseous fuels (producer gas, bio gas) Electricity (small-scale using gasification, large-scale using steam route) Social benefits Employment in rural areas Modern energy services to rural population Potential to “green” waste lands III Policy Innovations Securing conventional energy resources Overseas investments: Balancing interests and principles Enlarging the engagement with the near and expanded neighbourhood: Increased energy ties: West Asia, Central Asia, Australia , SAsia Sourcing oil and coal from Africa: building on long term relations Accessing global civil nuclear markets: Collaboration with the USA and emerging ties post the NSG waiver Managing the hyphenation with China: Risks and opportunities Renewable energy sector development in India (the policy story) 1970s R&D programs initiated 1980s Fiscal & financial incentives introduced (subsidy, tax incentives, etc) Focus on developing RE technologies and products Demonstration projects Increased role of Public Sector Undertakings 1990s More emphasis on fiscal incentives Increased Private Sector Participation 2000 Onwards EA 2003, NEP 2005, NTP 2006 Quota/Obligation system introduced Preferential tariffs for RE Infrastructure development Integrated Energy Policy 2006 Source: S Garud National Biofuels Policy NAPCC NSM Trends in RET Systems innovations in India Smart Mini Grid Solar Mini Grid GRID Wind + Solar WIND HYDRO Mini Hydro Biomass Stand-alone Solar Systems 1980 Village systems 1990 Integration 2008 National Solar Mission To sharply upscale grid connected solar power: 3 phases: 1000 MW -2013; 10000 MW-2017; 20000 MW-2022 To create favorable conditions for solar manufacturing capability To support off grid applications – 1000 MW by 2017; 2000 MW-2022 To support this : Solar PO, REC, dedicated buyer-NVVN, fiscal incentives, R & D IV RE business and research opportunities & partnerships Well established legal system and financial markets Large technically qualified workforce Enabling policy regime Many market opportunities Sustainable Buildings Distributed Generation SMEs Potential Indian Partners (see www.mnre.gov.in) Conclusion India has a rapidly growing power sector with a vibrant renewable energy market Australia already exports coking and thermal coal; LNG; will only increase over time. − RE beckons − Estimated total investments in renewable energy projects estimated to be > US$ 10 billion in next 3-5 years. − Many BOP opportunities available through decentralized systems − Solar power costs are expected to fall to grid parity by 2022; and to coal thermal power parity by 2030 through aggressive supportive policies − Pro investor and R & D friendly policy regimes in place − Thank you