Transcript Slide 1

The Future of Energy
CanSIA Western Solar Conference 2010
Calgary Alberta
John MacDonald
Life Today
OUR GENERATION ENJOYS THE BEST QUALITY OF LIFE
HUMANS HAVE EVER EXPERIENCED SINCE OUR SPECIES
APPEARED ON THIS PLANET.
OUR PROSPERITY & QUALITY OF LIFE IS DEPENDENT ON THE
READY AVAILABILITY OF ABUNDANT AFFORDABLE ENERGY.
2
Energy Issues
OBSERVATION
Given a choice between protecting the environment and
impact on their Pocketbook, the majority of people will opt
for protecting their Pocketbook
Security - Dependence
on Foreign Energy
Environmental Concerns
Climate Change
Demand and Supply
Demand and Supply - A key Question
When will the Demand for Energy exceed the
Conventional Supply?
The likely result will be Increases in the Price of Energy and Instability in that Price
The timing of this is very uncertain but it will happen
Primary Energy Supply [ExaJoules/Yr]
Optimistic Supply Case
Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Energy Information Agency (EIA)
German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
Nuclear
Biomass
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
Year
Primary Energy Supply [ExaJoules/Yr]
Pessimistic Supply Case
Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Energy Information Agency (EIA)
German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
Coal
Gas
Oil
Year
Primary Energy Supply [ExaJoules/Yr]
Filling the Gap
Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Energy Information Agency (EIA)
German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)
Nuclear
What will fill the Gap??
Hydro
Biomass
Coal
Gas
Oil
Year
Filling the Gap - 2 Solutions
• Increased use of Nuclear Energy
• Renewable Energy Sources
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Solar
Wind
Tidal
Biofuel derived from biomass
Geothermal
Wave
Small Hydro (Run of River)
Large Hydro
Properties of Renewable Energy
•Secure
•A local energy source
•Environmentally Benign
•Inexhaustible
•But it is either intermittent or strongly location dependent or both
WBGU’s World Energy Vision to
2100
1,600
Geothermal
Other REs
WBGU: German Advisory Council on Global Change
Primary Energy Supply [EJ/Y]
1,400
Solar heat
1,200
Solar
electricity
1,000
800
Wind
600
Biomass adv
Biomass trad
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
YEAR
2040
2050
2100
2060
Hydro-PW
Nuclear PW
Gas
Coal
Oil
208
2070
Shell – WBGU Comparison
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“Grid Parity” – The Holy Grail
•What is “Grid Parity”?
•Equality of the renewable energy price per
kilowatt-hour (kWh) with the currently
accepted kWh price from the grid
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Getting to “Grid Parity”
Challenges
•Bridging the current cost differential
• Renewable energy incentives
•Generation of firm, dispatchable energy
from renewable sources
•Creation of renewable energy dominated
supply systems and subsystems
•Integration of renewables into existing
energy systems and managing the transition
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Getting to “Grid Parity”
Solar Energy System Cost & kWh Price
•Fuel is free! – Enhances price stability
•Large up-front investment, amortized over
a defined time period
•Kilowatt-hour price is driven by the cost
of amortizing the capital investment
combined with the cost of operation and
maintenance.
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Getting to “Grid Parity” - Technology
•The technology must:
•Maximize the number of kilowatt-hours
generated annually per unit of capital invested.
• This is the key performance parameter
•Produce the rated power over the
amortization period and beyond.
•Have low maintenance and operating costs.
Getting to “Grid Parity”
Bridging the cost gap
•Incentives (that reduce to zero over time)
• Performance-based – Incentivizes performance improvement
• Capital rebate – Leads to commoditization – only price matters
• Tax-based
• Others
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Performance-Based Incentives
(Example: Feed-in-Tariff)
• Guarantees a stable price environment and a stable return on
investment (~8%) for a stated period (typically 20 years)
• Attracts private capital into the process of realizing a mature
renewable energy industry by creating a stable and realistic
pricing environment.
• Motivates renewable energy companies to innovate and
discover ways to improve the number of kWh per annum per
unit of invested capital in order to remain competitive.
(Performance counts)
• Is an investment in future energy price stability
• Reduces the time to reach grid parity.
• Money can be made doing all the right things to get there.
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Achieving “Firm” Energy Delivery
Renewable Energy Sources are either
intermittent or strongly location
dependent or both.
How can we create a system that can
generate FIRM renewable power
ANYWHERE?
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Achieving “Firm” Energy Delivery
Big
Hydro
Solar
70
60
Small
Intermittent
Blending
Wind
Hydro
Renewable
50
Firm
Wind
and
Solar in Minnesota (example)
Renewable
Sources
Biomass
Geothermal
Sources
Tidal
Wave
Solar
Wind
40
GRID
CONTROL
SYSTEM
30
20
Large
Scale
Storage
Fossil
Fuel &
Nuclear
10
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
LOAD
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Renewables in the Mainstream
Creating the Infrastructure
• This is a very large undertaking
• The structure will be very different from what we have today
• The design is highly location dependent
• It will require much innovation and creativity
• It will take much time
• Time that we may not have much of
• IT IS TIME WE TOOK MAINSTREAM RENEWABLE
SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE SERIOUSLY
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A Parting Thought on Architecture
Distributed Generation coupled with Distributed Storage??
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