Alan Forster Shell WindEnergy LSU Alternative Energy Conference Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2.
Download ReportTranscript Alan Forster Shell WindEnergy LSU Alternative Energy Conference Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2.
Alan Forster Shell WindEnergy LSU Alternative Energy Conference Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution…? Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution…? Renewables drivers are increasing Driver: 1970’s Today • Security of supply: Oil Shocks Energy Security • Environmental: Air quality + Climate change • Technology dev: R&D + Deployment • Market structure: Limited Source Personal choice => Most OECD & some non OECD countries have set RE targets Energy Independence: Oil and gas import dependence will increase Oil Import dependence 100% 80% Gas Import dependence 100% 2002 2002 80% 2030 2030 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% OECD Europe OECD North America OECD Europe OECD North America Source: World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA => Renewable energy is largely indigenous Renewables drivers are increasing Driver: 1970’s Today • Security of supply: Oil Shocks Energy Independence • Environmental: Air quality + Climate change • Technology dev: R&D + Deployment • Market structure: Limited Source Personal choice => Most OECD & some non OECD countries have set RE targets Environmental drivers • Debate is drawing to close, even in the U.S. • Science will become irrelevant – perception is reality • Cost of doing nothing greater than cost of action e.g. Kyoto • Popular pressure will drive policy • Public tone of White House has already changed e.g. “Energy Hog” campaign Renewables are not the only solution to these drivers Others include: – Carbon Sequestration – Energy Efficiency – Fuel switching (e.g. Coal to gas, coal/gas to nuclear) – “Clean” hydrocarbons Renewables are the solution of choice for those countries with either a major indigenous renewable resource, firm social/political will, or because a market support framework has created an industry Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution…? Faster growth than conventional energy... 1990-2000 growth (% 10 pa) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables Continued strong growth ahead Solar PV Wind Biomass Solar Thermal Geothermal Biofuels 0 5 10 15 20 Projected growth 2000 - 2010 (%pa) 25 30 A small but growing share of primary energy Total primary energy: 114’000TWh/year Renewables: 1’100TWh/year PV Gas Renewables Oil Coal Solar thermal Geothermal Biomass The Narrowing Band: U.S. Generation Costs, 1980– 2004 500 Wind 400 Nuclear Real 300 2000 Dollars per MWh 200 Solar PV Supercritical Coal Coal IGCC Geothermal 100 Gas CCGT 0 1980 1985 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 40321-5 1990 1995 2000 2005 Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution…? Carbon constrained futures Energy system mix 1000 Carbon emissions 14 billion tonnes carbon EJ Renewables 750 12 Spirit of the Coming Age 10 Hydro Nuclear 8 500 6 Dynamics as Usual Hydrocarbons 4 250 2 Other 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 A global presence Renewables & Hydrogen: • 1,400 employees • 75 Countries Shell new energy portfolio also includes Biofuels Wind Parks Solar Manufacturing Solar Marketing Hydrogen lighthouse projects Shell WindEnergy Inc. Rock River, 50MW Brazos, 160MW Whitewater Hill, Calif. 61MW Cabazon, Calif. 41MW Colorado Green, 162MW White Deer, 80MW Top of Iowa, 80MW •Shell WindEnergy Inc owns/operates 634 MW (gross); •Supplies ~2TWh of emission-free electricity: equivalent to 90% of the residential electrical demand of Wyoming. Solar PV – mainly crystalline today Future rests with other technologies: CIS Hydrogen – how long is the road to competitiveness? System costs [$/kW] Stack costs 1200 250 200 Total Electric propulsion 150 system ICE competitive level 100 H2 storage Total Balance of Plant 50 0 100 500 10K Number of vehicles per year 30K 500K 5000K Shell is putting theory into practice… In safe operation for more than a year Planned for ‘06 Los Angeles Washington D.C. Planned for ‘06 New York State Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution…? There needs to be a steady Migration Pathway to CO2-Free H2 CO2 Emissions H2 from existing SMR 1000000’s H2 from H2 from fossil feedstock Renewables w/ CO2 Capture Storage H2 Ren. H2 Production (t/d) H2+CCS H2 + CO2 < 10 years 100’s 10-30 years Time from now >30-50 years Carbon Management, A license for growth trading renewables sequestration alternatives ecbm efficiency It is all about having the experience & skills Managing our growing carbon footprint • Economics of sequestration don’t add up - UNLESS you view it as an enabler for growth • No sequestration = no chance to exploit unconventionals/coal • Geological sequestration is possible without technology advances Managing our growing carbon footprint • Proving safe storage is the challenge • Governments needs to clarify legal liabilities wrt storage • Public understanding is low – NGO’s are ready to fill the gap if we don’t • It’s time to get moving Clean Power, C02 sequestration - Miller, Scotland Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution…? A Portfolio enabled by technology Liquid Natural Gas Hydrogen Bio-products Developing tomorrow’s hydrogen infrastructure. One of the world’s largest bio-fuel users today; Researching advanced bioproducts for tomorrow. Gas to liquids Gas supply Natural gas World leader in LNG; Making cleaner transport fuels with ‘gas to liquids’ technology. Geological Co2 Coal sequestration gasification Partnering in research and development initiatives. Licensing advanced gasification technology. Solar Wind Making the world’s most energy efficient commercial solar panels. Powering hundred of thousands of homes with Wind energy. Shell supplies 10% of the worlds transport fuels with many delivery options Energy Sources Oil Energy Carrier Conventional & advanced biofuels Gas Coal Biomass drive-train options Liquid Fuels Synthetic fuels Conventional ICE Fischer Tropsch Partial Oxidation Syngas CO, H2 Hybrid diesel CCGT Solar Electricity Wind Hydro Plug-In hybrid diesel/HCCI Shift Reaction Nuclear Electrolysis Electric Vehicle Hydrogen FCV 177 The solution is the energy mix • There is no single solution – diversity of energy sources will increase, including other new energies like Hydrogen • Renewables will be part of the solution – costs will decrease, but stability, scale and new fast growth markets will determine pace of competitiveness • All choices (including nuclear) need time to build So the time to make decisions is now…not only for new renewables, but also traditional fuels….