Transcript Clean Energy Revolution: IRENA view HLG SE4ALL Vienna, 19 November 2011 What is a „Clean Energy Revolution“ ? Physics trump politics • Power, transportation, heating.

Clean Energy Revolution:
IRENA view
HLG SE4ALL Vienna, 19 November 2011
What is a „Clean Energy Revolution“ ?
Physics trump politics
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Power, transportation, heating & cooling markets – power alone is not sufficient
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Doubling intensity improvements: 40% improvement of global average energy intensity 20102030 – 2.5% decoupling per year (40/30)
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Average OECD about 1% in last decade - higher in emerging economies, notably China
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Is lower economic growth consistent with higher decoupling rate?
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Renewables 100% conversion efficiency vs 40% for coal/nuclear (accounting)
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Often financing challenge and high transaction cost. Business case issues (landlordtenant problem)
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Doubling renewables share: approximately 30% renewables in 2030 (30/30) Global average

13% in 2008 based on IEA statistics (19% based on final energy methodology REN21)
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Includes about 7% traditional biomass
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Business-as-usual (all policies in place): 14.3% in 2030 (IEA WEO 2010)
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Policies under consideration: 17.2% in 2030 (IEA WEO 2010) – conservative view ?
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Gap: 13-16% – 5-fold increase of modern renewables growth
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Renewables account for half of power generation
capacity additions worldwide
Doubling in five years, driven by policy and innovation
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
2010
39 GW wind
30 GW hydro
17 GW solar PV
0.5 GW solar CSP
5 GW biomass
0.1 GW geothermal
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: IRENA analysis
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Cost falling rapidly: wind energy auctions in Brazil
Similar positive trend for other renewables
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Auction 2009
Delivery 2012
[USD/MWh]
100
Auction 2010
Delivery 2013
90
Auction 2010
Delivery 2013
80
70
Auction 2011
Delivery 2014
60
50
0
500
1,000
MW
1,500
2,000
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Barriers for 30/30 – policy and country specific
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Insufficient attention for transport, stationary and feedstock applications
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Incremental investment need in the order of USD 500 bln per year
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Higher upfront investment cost

Rapidly falling cost

Derisking needed/real options analysis
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Policy uncertainty/policy framework design and enforcement deters private sector action
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Economic and technical feasibility is not yet clear to many decision makers and consumers
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Cheap fossil fuels – internalize externalities (shale gas, oil sands, deepwater etc)
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Fossil fuel and electricity subsidies in parts of the world
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Too much focus on CO2 policies as a driver
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Long life span existing capital stock – early phase out ?
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Tedious and expensive planning procedures
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Insufficient project proposal development capacity
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Solutions – sector and country specific
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Promote energy efficiency and renewables policies as complement for international CO2
policies
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Register of country EE & RE targets – gap analysis - MRV
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Roadmap transport, stationary applications – who are the key actors ?
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Better information on renewables possibilities & latest economics
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Assessment/inventory of policy instrument efficiency and effectiveness
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Engage „long view, low risk“ capital (Pension funds, Souvereign Wealth Funds etc)
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Engage utilities, municipalities, financing institutions, equipment suppliers
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Streamline planning procedures, facilitate grid access etc.
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Build capacity
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SMEs: Global Energy Enterpreneurship Program (E+Co, IRENA, partners)
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Large enterprises: promote ISO 50 001 (UNIDO, partners)
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Students and vocational training
Country specific roadmaps/action plans for implementation – examples
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eg IRENA renewables readiness analysis Senegal, Mozambique, UNFCCC studies
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Thank you !
Dolf Gielen
[email protected]
www.irena.org
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