Transcript Folie 1 - Budapest University of Technology and Economics

7th PRESENTATION 2011.10.05. WED
Environmental Management Systems
Jenő Miklós SUDA, PhD ([email protected])
Dept. Fluid Mechanics („AE” building)
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
Renewable Energies
Status and Investment
(2007)
BASED ON THE PRESENTATION of
Philippe Lempp
„REN21” Secretariat, Paris
Renable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century
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Based on two reports:
1. “REN21 Renewables 2007 Global Status Report”
2. “Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2007”
(endorsed by REN21)
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I.
„REN21”
Renewables 2007 Global Status Report
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Annual Investment in Renewable Energy
1995-2006 (billion USD)
About USD 52bn invested in RE capacity worldwide in 2006,
up from USD 39bn in 2005. Large hydro additional USD 15–20bn.
Germany and China investment leaders, with USD 7bn each in
2005.
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Renewable Power Capacities in 2006
(GW) for DC’s, EU, and Top Six Countries
Global renewable power capacity increased from 182 GW in 2005 to 202 GW
in 2006 (excl. large hydro). This is 5% of total global power capacity.
Developing countries account for 45%
China has largest installed capacity,
followed by Germany, US, Spain, Japan.
Fastest growing technology is grid-connected PV (60% / year from 2000–2005).
Most installed in Germany, Japan, and US.
Second is wind (28% per year), led by Germany with 19 GW installed as of 2005.
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Solar Hot Water/Heating Capacity Existing
in 2006 (Total = 102 GWth)
Total Existing Capacity as of 2006: 102 GWth. Added in 2006: 15.4 GWth.
China has a strong lead in both existing (65%) and added (80%) capacity,
followed by EU, Turkey, Japan, Israel.
Rooftop solar collectors provide hot water to nearly 45m households
worldwide, most of these in China.
Biomass-fueled heating provides five times more heat worldwide than
solar and geothermal combined.
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Ethanol and Biodiesel Production, 20002006 (billion litres/year)
38bn litres of ethanol produced in 2006, up from 33bn in 2005
6bn litres of biodiesel produced in 2006, up from 4bn in 2005
Together, annual biofuels production compares to some 3% of
the 1,500 bn litres of motor fuel consumed globally.
Ethanol provided 41% of (non-diesel) motor vehicle fuel in Brazil in 2005.
Ethanol was blended with 30% of all motor fuel sold in the US.
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Average Annual Growth Rates of
Renewable Energy Capacity, 2000-2004
Industry: Market capitalisation exceeded USD 100bn in 2007 for the 135 publicly traded
RE companies (or divisions of major companies), that had a market capitalisation
greater than USD 40m each. This was an increase from 85 companies in 2006
with market capitalisation of USD 50bn total.
Four big Initial Public Offerings in 2005-2006: Suntech (China), Suzlon (India),
REC (Norway), and Q-cells (Germany)
Jobs: Over 1.7m jobs in the RE industry worldwide
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RE policy
•
At least 48 countries worldwide now have some
type of RE promotion policy, incl. 14 DC’s.
•
At least 32 countries and 9 states/provinces have
feed-in policies, more than half of which have
been enacted since 2002.
•
At least 32 states or provinces have renewable
portfolio standards (RPS), half since 2003.
•
Policy targets exist in at least 49 countries
worldwide, incl. 13 DC’s, all 25 EU countries, and
many states/provinces in the US and Canada.
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Renewable Energy Promotion Policies
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Cumulative Number of Countries/ States/
Provinces Enacting Feed-in Policies
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EU RE Targets - Share of Electricity by
2010
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Non-EU Countries with RE Targets
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Selected Major Cities with Renewable
Energy Goals and/or Policies
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REN21 Renewables Global Status Report
•
•
•
•
•
Report compiles existing factual information on
markets, investments, and policies.
Based on research, data, interviews, and review
by over 100 contributors from around the world.
Sponsored by the REN21 Renewable Energy
Policy Network and German government.
Worldwatch Institute and GTZ are producer and
publisher. Eric Martinot is lead author and
research director.
Look out for the 2007 report, due in September!
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II. Global Trends in
Sustainable Energy Investment 2007
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Overall RE/EE investment growing quickly
• Investment has more than doubled in 2005-2007 years. Further 20% increase forecast
for 2007, taking global investment to $85 billion.
• In addition to the $71 billion poured into companies, about $30 billion entered the
sector via mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buyouts and asset refinancing.
• Drivers go beyond the big three (oil prices, energy security, climate change) to include
many more environmental mainstreaming issues.
$70.9bn
• In 2006 ‘new renewables’ accounted
for
2006 figure is an NEF forecast
–
–
just over 2% of global energy supply, and yet
nearly 10% of global energy investment.
43%
• International Energy Agency predictions of renewables
growing only at the same pace
Growth
$49.6bn
as other energy supply options may be conservative.
$27.5bn
2004
81%
Growth
2005
2006
Source: New Energy Finance
Figure 1: Global Investment in Clean Energy, 2004 - 2006
VC/PE Investment Soaring
• Venture Capital / Private Equity up 163% in one year.
• Biofuels edged out solar and wind to raise the most risk capital in 2006.
• Most investment in wind has been in manufacturing capacity, not new technology.
• VCs shifting more to larger, later stage deals.
• US dominates VC transactions. China was the second largest recipient of Venture Capital.
Biofuels
$804m
Solar
$746m
$664m
Wind
Efficiency Demand
:
Side
$272m
Smart Distribution
$163m
Power Storage
$134m
Services & Support (Clean Energy)
$127m
$105m
Fuel Cells
Biomass and Waste
Efficiency Supply
:
Side
$93m
$36m
Hydrogen
$35m
Marine
$31m
Carbon Markets
$4m
Manufact. Capacity
Technology
figures are up until mid – December 2006
Source: New Energy Finance
Figure 3: 2006 Venture Capital and Private Equity Investment by Sector
Public stock markets have opened to RE
• Public markets up 140% in one year.
• Solar PV is the big winner on public capital markets.
• European stock markets are the main destination for Initial Public Offerings.
• Clean Energy Markets volatile but doing well: More corrections are expected, but few
predict crash.
Sol ar
$4.4bn
Biofuels
$2.5bn
Wind
$1.2bn
Other Low Carbon
$1.2bn
Other Renewables
Biomass & Waste
$0. 5bn
$0.4bn
Source: New Energy Finance
Figure 4: Public Market Investment by Sector
Concluding Market Observations
•
Measured by capital investment, renewable energy is already a much larger
sector than current energy production figures indicate.
•
Sector is diversified and in different stages of development, attracting
different forms of capital
– Asset finance for wind, Public Markets for solar, VC for biofuels and
beyond;
– Capital is now mobilising quickly and unseating energy sector
incumbents.
•
Increased competition amongst capital providers is
– Leading to financial innovation within mature markets (wind);
– Extending conventional financing beyond wind (solar, biofuels, ….);
– Shift in regional focus to emerging markets (China, India, Brazil).