Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia
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Transcript Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia
Evolving Trade and Economic
Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region:
Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers
Robert Scollay
New Zealand APEC Study Centre
University of Auckland
Visions
Trans-Pacific
East Asia-Centric
Trans-Pacific Vision
Catalyst: end of Cold War and creation of APEC
Accelerant: East Asia-North America economic
interdependence
Vehicles
APEC
encountered limitations of “concerted unilateral” approach to trade
liberalisation
FTAAP
APEC-wide FTA
TPP
‘stepping stone’ to FTAAP?
East Asia-Centric Vision
Catalyst: East Asian economic crisis 1997-98
Spur to “East Asian regionalism”
Accelerant: expansion of East Asian production networks
Vehicles
ASEAN Plus Three
(China, Japan, Korea [CJK] and ASEAN)
EAFTA (East Asian FTA)
monetary and financial initiatives
‘Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)
ASEAN Plus Six/East Asian Summit
(including Australia, New Zealand, India)
CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia)
key vehicle for New Zealand engagement with East Asia
Today’s Reality
“Noodle Bowl”:
Over 30 bilateral FTAs
Multiple impulses (no single “vision”)
Intra-East Asia
Trans-Pacific
East Asia-Australasia
Plurilateral
NAFTA, AFTA, P4
“ASEAN Plus FTAs”
“ASEAN Plus One”: ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan,
ASEAN-Korea
AANZFTA (ASEAN-Australia and NZ FTA)
Gaps – East Asia
ASEAN has completed links with all prospective EAFTA and CEPEA
partners
But CJK link is missing from both EAFTA and CEPEA
can this link be completed? how? CJK FTA?
implications for East Asian leadership
CJK-ANZ link missing from CEPEA (except China-NZ)
FTAs under negotiation: Australia-China, Australia-Japan, Australia-
Korea, NZ-Korea
under discussion: NZ-Japan
India-CJK and India-ANZ links missing
India-NZ FTA negotiations about to start
Taiwan and Hong Kong
major players in East Asian trade
Gaps – Trans-Pacific
TPP currently a “stepping stone”
Questions for moving beyond “stepping stone” status
participation by Japan? Korea? China?
ASEAN “buy-in”?
beyond Singapore, Brunei, Viet Nam
CJK link becomes a question mark here as well
complicated by concerns over relative positions vis-àvis USA
could expanded TPP balance emerging G2?
Layers
Layers of regional economic integration:
Community-building
agendas in APEC, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, ASEAN
Monetary and financial integration
pursued mainly within ASEAN+3 at present
Common markets
ASEAN Economic Community, ANZ Single Economic Market
Trade
gains from trade: FTAAP > CEPEA > EAFTA
(also as steps towards multilateralism)
political economy: ?
“decoupling” v. Trans-Pacific interdependence
Does Layering Provide a Basis for
Coexistence of the Two Visions?
East Asian and Trans-Pacific visions pursued
within different layers of integration?
Provide for both East Asian identity and trans-
Pacific interdependence?